Esequibo and the Ghost of Falklands War
It’s impossible not to think about what happened when the Argentina military regime launched a war with the UK to evade domestic troubles. But the comparison with today’s Venezuela throws numerous differences
Politics
The Esequibo Referendum Reveals a Regime Unable to Compete Electorally
Sunday’s low turnout and messy numbers reveal that Chavismo’s electoral machinery is more rusty than expected. Will the regime replace Maduro, and seek legitimacy, or bet for a Nicaraguazo in 2024?
Madurismo’s Electoral Dilemma
While the regime could contemplate a sham transition, led by another Chavista or a friendly “opposition” figure, Maduro is not willing to transfer the presidency. But a Nicaragua-like strategy could end up bursting its regime’s tensions
How Chávez Softened Down on the Esequibo
While Hugo Chávez never formally ceded or resigned the claim over the Esequibo region, his government toned down Venezuela’s position in order to win regional influence and leverage to face the United States. And Guyana saw an opportunity
What is Venezuela Actually Seeking With the Esequibo Referendum?
Venezuela’s authoritarian regime is holding a referendum over a claim the country has kept for decades. Why? To face the opposition, measure its mobilization power and stroke electoral nationalism before the 2024 elections
Reality Check: The U.S. May Not Punish Maduro in 2024
Maria Corina Machado and her allies must prepare for scenarios where Maduro sets up uncompetitive elections and the Biden administration doesn’t fully retaliate. The White House is eyeing a working relationship with Miraflores, whoever governs beyond 2024
María Corina Won The Primaries. What Comes Now?
María Corina Machado presented a four-parts plan to build up the way to Miraflores. But as the November 30th deadline approaches, she is still banned from running for office
Venezuela is Haunting the Argentina Elections, Again
Our country’s economic disaster remains a cautionary tale that candidates use as warning against their contenders. But in the current bizarre fight between a libertarian and a Peronista, both say the other is the next Chávez
At the ICC, the Perpetrator is Playing the Victim
Maduro is buying time at The Hague by fabricating absurd claims and hiring a prestigious British human rights lawyer. But Prosecutor Khan is not releasing the pressure
Why is Maduro Cracking Down on Amazonian Miners?
The Venezuelan regime –the country’s main promoter of mining– has recently launched a series of highly publicized operations against gold extraction in Cerro Yapacana. Are they working? Or is it just a propagandistic bluff?
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