The Simple Majority Con
Letting the opposition win a simple majority of seats may be just what the doctor ordered in terms of stabilizing the regime, co-opting the opposition's leadership and entrenching chavismo in power.
Politics
Open Data and the Case for a Ni-Ni-Ni 6D
Even today, a plurality of Venezuelans identifies neither as chavistas, nor as maduristas, nor as opposition supporters. They hold the keys to the kingdom.
Zulia voting centers moved...a week before the vote
What would happen if a week before the World Cup Final FIFA decided to change the location of the match? Not only that, but what if they do...
Tipping Point Circuits: Lara 2 and Guárico 2
Other possible Tipping Point Circuits for the 84th (simple majority) seat are much more rural, and see the opposition at its cotufa best, running a farándula columnist, a folk singer, and a former CNE commissioner.
Tipping Point Circuits: The Simple Majority
The circuit most likely to bring the opposition its 84th curul is home to two well known, widely loathed chavista incumbents - Ernesto Villegas and Freddy Bernal - being challenged by two newcomers.
Where the 6D Election Will be Won
With a 30 point lead in the national popular vote, MUD could end up with 88 seats in the 167 seat A.N. just as easily as it could end up with 133. It all depends on how many of its new voters are rural.
Chavismo is a Machine for Not-Negotiating
In a governing party where Intransigence is treated as a cardinal virtue, the first politico to propose negotiating with the opposition will be a kamikaze.
Maduro might implode; chavismo you'll have to bargain with
6D won't set off regime collapse, like in Romania in 1989. It'll set the stage for a delicate, high stakes negotiation, like in Mexico in 1988.
A Political Assassination in Altagracia de Orituco
AD's Secretary General for Guárico State is gunned down right in the middle of a campaign event, signalling a troubling new stage in the campaign.
Nicolae and Nicolás
6D matters, but not for the reasons you think. It's not a parliamentary majority that's at stake, it's the regime's cohesion.
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