Working Through the Scenarios II: A Fraudulent Sí
Quico says: Here’s a sphincter-clenching question for you: what’s the worst thing that could happen after Sunday’s Constitutional Reform Referendum? To me, the worst case scenario is the...
Life
Walk on through to the other side
Katy says: After a fourteen hour debate (!!), the radical opposition umbrella group Comando Nacional de la Resistencia has just abandoned its militant abstentionism. In a whiplash-inducing change...
Fosforito chronicles
Lucia says: Reporters Without Borders give their take on Venezuela’s deepening media crisis. They review review Iris Varela’s meltdown, the dangers posed by the reforms, the uncertain fate...
Datanalisis Details
Quico says: It’s not surprising that the Datanalisis poll from Nov 14-20th is getting the most play in the international media. With a big sample (N=1854, margin of...
Time for Some Poll Charts
Quico says: By popular request, here’s the Constitutional Reform Referendum poll chart. (It’s a bit hard to read like this, but you can click to enlarge.) As you...
Working through the scenarios: a Sí victory
Katy says: Over the next few days, Caracas Chronicles is going to try to put the upcoming referendum in context. Ideally, this would be a deeply intellectual exercise,...
The difference a week makes
Quico says: Just a week ago, Chávez’s victory on the constitutional reform referendum was being portrayed as inevitable by foreign journos. But over the weekend, both Reuters and...
Two heuristics that swing elections
Quico says: Political scientists have a dirty little secret. It’s not really polite to say it in mixed company, but it’s a fact: casting a smart vote is...
The times they are a'changin'...
Quico says: A couple of months ago, my feeling was that if there was any way for the oppo old guard to blow their survey lead ahead of...
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