Caracas Chronicles

Two weeks into Trump II and the man has been flooding the ground with prospective deliveries on promises made to his constituency. While some of those deliveries may not reach their destinations, he surely shipped them. In the case of Venezuela, after a two day tiff with Colombia in which he basically threatened to stop their economy if they didn’t take deportees, special envoy Ric Grenell landed in Maiquetía with a clear mission under his arm: getting Nicolás Maduro to agree on taking deportation flights and bringing home U.S. citizens imprisoned by chavismo. The photographs of Grenell with the boys on the way home showed a quick victory, but the lap extended until the next day, when Trump tweeted saying that Maduro had agreed to the deportation flights and to pay for them—always the mark of a great deal, having the other party pay for the expenses.

Maduro said that this was the first step in starting a new relationship “from zero” (from scratch) with the U.S. In fact, he launched something called the “agenda cero,” probably to taunt the opposition while piling up over the photographs of a grinning Jorge Rodríguez and Maduro meeting with the U.S. diplomat.

Besides the courtesy that Secretary of State Marco Rubio extended to Edmundo González and Maria Corina Machado by granting them his first official call and the attention that Florida politicians like Senator Rick Scott have been trying to draw to the matter, the cause for Venezuelan democracy and transition seems to have been roadsided.

Twitterzuela has gone on a frenzy over what Trump may or may not have given to Maduro in exchange for these concessions. As it happens every month, today the Chevron license renewed automatically for another month, and folks reading the tea leaves on this matter pushed the idea that the correlation implied the causation. Again, it’s something that happens every month and in other months it hasn’t been news. The Trump administration has made a point to insist that the U.S. isn’t recognizing Maduro and that these were hostages that were released by the might of America and that nothing was offered in exchange. We decided to dive into these waters in this week’s Political Risk Report:

“We’re not here to say that Trump will necessarily provide sanction relief or guarantees that the licenses will remain in place in exchange for taking deportation flights and releasing U.S. citizens who are prisoners in Venezuela. However, it may be a good moment to take some time and think about what the ‘America first’ policy actually means and what it’ll imply. A good moment to think how much of a win it could mean for Trump to have Maduro accept thousands of deportees during his first weeks in office, and to have American prisoners released in exchange for Maduro’s expectation of good will from the Trump administration. But let’s think for a second that Trump decides to tolerate Maduro, that the licenses remain in place and Chevron and other U.S. companies continue to operate in Venezuela. Again, what would this mean for the ‘America first’ mindset? Well, the Venezuelan oil industry wouldn’t be deserted of U.S. companies, Trump couldn’t be blamed for worsening economic conditions in the country—this time around removing the licenses would have a visible impact on the economy that’s deeply dependant on Chevron cash—, and he wouldn’t be embarking in the same likely-to-fail mission of deposing an autocrat via administrative actions. Because at this point Trump must know that sanctions won’t break Maduro, and the alternative is something that clearly doesn’t fall within his ‘America first’ policy.”

Get ready, because it’s going to look a lot like oil for migrants, which was Maduro’s plan A, and it’s going to sting like a motherfucker.

If we try to remove ourselves from the passionate Venezuelan mindset it’s easy to see that allowing U.S. companies to operate in Venezuela is not contradictory with America First and that pushing Maduro out is not a priority. Trump doesn’t really have to take any action, just let the status quo flow. From his perspective whether Chevron is operating in Venezuela or not is an afterthought next to, for example, a tariff war with Canada and Mexico.

We discussed it in our Day 1 post, Venezuela is a domestic issue, and as we’ve seen this week, the Trump White House is getting all the pieces in place to start a periodic mass deportation program. Decisions are being made regarding TPS and the parole program, and Maduro just made it easier for Trump to remove those people from the U.S. Those 30,000 Guantánamo beds may not be needed after all. 

Get ready, because it’s going to look a lot like oil for migrants, which was Maduro’s plan A, and it’s going to sting like a motherfucker. Something like America first meets Venezuela se arregló. There’s other stuff that we may see happening regarding Venezuela that’s going to be hard to swallow. Think Citgo.

The fact that Venezuelan democracy is not a priority for Trump doesn’t mean that there aren’t stakeholders or allies of the Venezuela cause in the U.S. And of course things will happen that could bring democratization to the top of the agenda, Maduro is likely to violate whatever agreement was made, Trump may have a bad golf day and go for an arepa in Doral, anything. We’re in the land of unpredictability. 

While this may look like a development that should be seen as a cold shower for Venezuelans, a shot of reality that should open our eyes to the fact that no one will come to save us, we’ll let you in on a little secret: we know. We’ve always known that it is up to us. And that’s why Venezuelans have busted their asses for over a decade trying to remove Maduro after he reneged on his first big electoral loss in 2015. That’s why there’s still a strong opposition movement after 25 years of chavismo. That’s why the opposition has the receipts proving that 70% of the country, and likely more, want a change of government. And that’s why Maduro lost an election that was completely controlled by him. But this is a matter that has bled out of our borders, that is affecting our neighbors, and that must be addressed intelligently with the best interest of vulnerable Venezuelans inside and outside the country at heart. 

Venezuelans will do the leg work, we always do, but we do need help to keep going.