Caracas Chronicles

“In his first government, President Donald Trump did not do well for us. This is a new beginning for us to bet on a win-win [scenario] and for the United States to do well and for Venezuela to do well,” Nicolás Maduro said soon after Trump won the U.S. presidency for a second time. “I wish him good luck.”

Chavismo, despite its more-than-rocky history with Trumpism, seems cautiously excited with Trump’s Second Coming. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for example, swiftly released a statement congratulating him and announcing Venezuela will “always be willing to establish good relations with U.S. governments.”

For some Chavista observers, Trump’s strong anti-immigration rhetoric could lead to the new administration prioritizing the deportation of hundreds of thousands of undocumented Venezuelan migrants over supporting the opposition in its struggle after the July 28^th elections. After all, Trump centered his campaign on the supposed danger of the recent waves of Venezuelan migrants: the presence of Tren de Aragua in U.S. soil is a leitmotiv—to the point Trump has codenamed his mass deportation plans ‘Operation Aurora,’ referencing the alleged takeover of apartment blocks by Tren de Aragua gang members in Aurora, Colorado—and constantly and baselessly assured that Maduro emptied Venezuelan jails to send criminals to the U.S. while ensuring Caracas’ crime drop. Unlike the Biden administration, which has maintained open communications with the opposition and recognized Edmundo González Urrutia as the truthful winner of the presidential elections in Venezuela, Trump has avoided mentioning María Corina Machado and González. Chavismo, which has previously used Venezuelan migrants and the suspension of deportation flights to blackmail the U.S. over its sanctions policies and support of the opposition, is expecting ‘Operation Aurora’ could open a new pathway for its survival.

“Congratulations, Mr. Trump. If you fulfill what you said about ending the wars, welcome to this world, end the wars. I hope you can end the wars,” said Diosdado Cabello, the ministry of the Interior and Chavismo’s rising hardliner. Cabello also assured that “the triumph of Donald Trump opens a new stage in the madhouse of the extremist Venezuelan opposition” but that it wouldn’t change much the current U.S./Venezuela relations. Similarly, Maduro said that there were “nervous” people within the opposition trying to get Trump to “attack” Venezuela. “Let’s leave the president-elect alone to define his steps, his plans,” Maduro said, “Calm and serenity, zero nerves.”

Chavismo, which has previously used Venezuelan migrants and the suspension of deportation flights to blackmail the U.S. over its sanctions policies and support of the opposition, is expecting ‘Operation Aurora’ could open a new pathway for its survival.

Chavismo’s “win-win” bet is better explained through a reel by Chavista influencer Indira Urbaneja. In it, she said she was “happy” for Trump’s victory because “unlike the Democrats, he knows the fraudulent opposition very well.” According to Urbaneja, Trump’s previous failed approach with Juan Guaidó and Leopoldo López meant he would no longer trust the opposition. “He is now the GOP’s highest authority,” she said, “Neither Marco Rubio nor Rick Scott nor anyone else will be able to blackmail Trump.” For Urbaneja, not only Trump’s supposed priorities—“migration and reducing the cost of gas”—would avoid another 2019-like scenario, but the dismissal of former national security advisor John Bolton and Mauricio Claver-Carone had ended any ties between the opposition and Trumpism. 

Of course, Chavismo had also once seen with hope the rise of Trumpism after Barack Obama’s first sanctions: with Citgo donating $500,000 to his first inauguration. And this time, miscalculating Trump’s position could be at play once again.

A few days after Urbaneja’s Instagram reel, Marco Rubio’s name was seriously floated as Secretary of State and Rick Scott began his Elon Musk-backed fight for Senate Republican leader. The “blackmailers” mentioned by chavismo could be at the front of the second Trump administration.

Trump, Milei… and Machado?

The rise of Marco Rubio, if confirmed, represents the quintessential Miami political victory. A Cuban-American neocon hawk—who opposed the Cuban thaw, allegedly tried to convince Trump to invade Venezuela in 2020, and has criticized Biden’s soft approach to the “narcoregime” in Venezuela—would now lead the Trump’s administration foreign policy: with a especial eye not only on the forgotten lands south of the Rio Grande but on the so-called “troika of tyranny.” Rubio’s rise would be the final revenge of Joan Didion’s Miami Cubans. His new position, despite Trump’s mass deportation proposals, doesn’t bode well in the short term for Maduro’s refluxing regime and the Western oil companies operating in Venezuela with licenses granted during the Biden administration.

Rubio is not alone. Elon Musk—who has repeatedly clashed with the Maduro regime after the July 28^th elections, leading to Venezuela’s Twitter ban, and has been decried by Chavismo as a major enemy of Venezuela—is now a sort of ‘power behind the throne’ figure, constantly meeting the president-elect in Mar-A-Lago and joining him in his calls with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile, Michael Waltz—another anti-Maduro hawk—will be Trump’s new National Security Advisor. Despite Trump’s appointment of J. D. Vance and the rise of the America First movement, neocon hawks are surprisingly turning the second Trump administration into a sort of extravagant remake of the Bush era. 

Now, reducing migration might not necessarily mean a thaw between Venezuela and the U.S. In fac, if we follow Wired’s recounting of Trump’s push to have the CIA overthrow Maduro in 2019 and Bolton and former secretary of defense Mark Esper’s retellings of Trump’s ideas of bombing Venezuelan assets or invading Venezuela, a much bellicose and unrestrained position could now be on the table.

The new opposition leadership knows this. And—just like Maduro—they think there could be a win-win scenario on the table.

Meanwhile, both Machado in her hiding spot and Maduro in Miraflores Palace will wait and see who the ‘win-win’ is for in the Trump’s White House wildcard game.

While Trump seemed to dislike Guaidó, allegedly referring to him as “the Beto O’Rourke of Venezuela” against a “strong” Maduro, Machado not only plays into a more ideologically closer figure but also has both a long history of ties with GOP figures and a network of libertarian and right-wing ideologues and activists that could well lobby in her favor in Washington. Long before Venezuela’s opposition became intrinsically tied to Trump’s sectorial and financial sanctions, Machado was meeting George W. Bush in the White House. 

Since then, she has maintained direct and public ties both with conservative forums and think tanks and figures like Ted Cruz. People in her entourage participate or are members of international liberal and right-wing organizations and think tanks, maintaining ties both with the Milei and Bullrich right-wing factions in Argentina and sectors of the GOP in the U.S. Long before she actually became the opposition leader, when she was still a fringe figure in national figures, conservative U.S. outlets and politicians were already referring to Machado as “the leader of the opposition.” It shouldn’t surprise anyone: despite the allusion to her family’s steel business, Machado has sought to be a sort of younger and cooler Margaret Thatcher of the tropics through her use of the “Iron Lady” moniker.

In fact, Machado was quick to congratulate Trump: “We know that we can count on the support of the peoples of the Americas and their democratic governments to ensure a transition to democracy without delay. And we also know that we have always counted on you”, she said. Then, Machado assured him that a new opposition government would be a “reliable ally” that would work with the new Trump administration for “hemispheric security, the political stability of the region and the real use of our energy potential.” In other words, ayúdame y te ayudo. Help me, help you.

González Urrutia also congratulated the president in a more sober message. Nevertheless, he called himself “president-elect”: a title he had stopped using soon after the elections, likely as part of Brazil and Colombia’s failed mediation. This could be hinting that the opposition is expecting or seeking to have the U.S. officially recognize González as president-elect, leading Venezuelans to have two presidents once again in January. This situation could crystallize with a González Urrutia visit to the U.S. that is being currently discussed.

While Maduro welcomes a Russian official in Caracas—falsely announcing him as the country’s vice-president—following his failed attempt at joining BRICS, the departing Biden administration could soon launch more than 200 personal sanctions against mid-ranking Chavista officials and relatives of regime personnel. In a way, this could mark the beginning of the new approach. In Europe, Joseph Borrell is about to depart too and will be replaced with Kaja Kallas. This former Estonian prime minister is not only expected to have a tougher stance on Venezuela but is quite anti-Russian (she has an arrest warrant from the Kremlin) and comes from a political party that belongs to the international liberal network where Vente Venezuela—Machado’s party–is now an observer member.

Meanwhile, both Machado in her hiding spot and Maduro in Miraflores Palace will wait and see who the ‘win-win’ is for in the Trump’s White House wildcard game. Or, more accurately for the vibe shift, who will hear the “you’re fired!” first: In the end, this is now The Donald’s world.