Caracas Chronicles

It has been a month and a week since the historic election of July 28. And the number of friends and people close to me who are increasingly discouraged by everything is very large. The common mood that I get in conversations –even with the cashier who kindly serves me at the supermarket– is that of a feeling of déjà vu, as if this chapter of the conflict between Venezuelans and the Chavista regime is going to end the same way as in 2014 or 2017 or 2019.

In this regard, some comments are in order.

The first thing is quite obvious: it was evident that this was not going to be a process that could happen overnight. It would have been absurd to expect that a dictatorship of the characteristics of Venezuela’s would be out thanks to a brief and heroic action –like a scene from a Hollywood movie– in which the regime falls in 24 hours and a week later we return to being a normal country.

Although it is true that the campaign of María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia did not say it exactly like that, the social mood perceived it that way. Some opposition pundits even spoke of “there are XXX days left to reach the promised land”, referring to July 28, 2024.

In this sense, the leadership must manage its political capital as a budget, taking into account not only what it achieved in the route to July 28, but also the heavy passives that are disappointments of previous processes. The emotional trace that these years left in so many people must be part of the assessment of such political capital.

This is what is known in the private sector as “human capital assessment,” which measures the performance, morale, and talent of human resources: a task to execute as well in a political contest, just like companies, sports teams, and civil organizations must do when they face a challenger or competitor.

It is Machado’s firmness that explains why it was precisely here who capitalized on society’s discontent with the traditional opposition leadership.

In criollo: people today are not the same as they were years ago. The Venezuela of 2007, which, when RCTV closed down, marched to Conatel and then ended up talking about the march while sharing an ice cream at Sambil, no longer exists (don’t worry, I did the same thing when I marched for the first time). Everyone carries on their shoulders the weight of impoverishment, migration (either as emigrants or as citizens who stayed and have their relatives abroad), aging, years gone by and repression. And, since the elections, this last factor has become more prevalent with state terrorism that unleashed selective persecution and killings.

That assessment of human capital cannot be ignored. In fact, without that assessment, the strength that María Corina Machado gained as a political leader cannot be understood. Her victory in the primaries and her undisputed leadership came from there: she capitalized on much of the past pain and disappointments that were directed –rightly or wrongly, fairly or unfairly– at the “traditional” opposition. Thus, her leadership arose because she went against the grain of the traditional leadership. She was “the radical”; “la resteada.” “We prefer a María Corina with balls than a Capriles with a pussy,” read a sign at a protest in 2014, one year after Henrique Capriles’ defeat in the presidential elections of April 2013.

When I was part of Vente Venezuela, I prepared part of the material for a campaign that the party launched in those days under the title “Resteadas con el 2016” (“Fully committed with 2016”). The message was clear: we do not accept that this goes beyond this year.

And so, here I am, writing this article eight years later. Is that the kind of campaign that led María Corina to become a minority figure in the opposition at that time? Maybe. Perhaps that firmness –that strength, that “radicalism”– was what led María Corina to be despised by the opposition intellectual establishment.

There is no way to view as positive the opposition leadership’s nonstrategic silence in the face of the most important events that have occurred since July 28 as positive.

It is Machado’s firmness that explains why it was precisely here who capitalized on society’s discontent with the traditional opposition leadership.

All of this has its origins in the elections of April 2013. From then on, María Corina embodied the voices of those who considered that Capriles “allowed himself to be robbed”, “sold out”, “had no balls”, “was a coward”, “no cobró”, etc. Again, regardless of whether categorization is fair or not.

But it would not be until ten years later that Machado finally built on that a mass following that had not been seen in Venezuela for years. A leadership of such enormous force that Machado, even without being a candidate, managed to transfer her popular support to a total unknown like Edmundo González Urrutia was.

Naturally, many people will now demand more from her. As the Spanish saying goes, “It is one thing to call the devil and another to see him arrive.” Today, María Corina Machado is where she has wanted to be for years: leading the opposition, in a firm movement that only seeks to get rid of the government – and do it once and for all.

If things don’t go well, for example, her speech on July 29 –when she ordered people to hold family assemblies– will look similar to Capriles’ speech in which he ordered the population to play salsa and bang pots and pans after his denunciation of fraud in 2013 and the suspension of the march to the National Electoral Council (CNE).

The disappointment could even be worse, because, again, emotionally, people are not the same.

Scandalous silences

Therefore, these past days and those to come will be of enormous disappointment for many when compared to previous experiences – especially that of the interim government headed by Juan Guaidó. And that is something that the leadership must deal with. It is part of its job to manage that mood in the people.

I say this above all because, in recent days, anyone who expresses the slightest doubt or criticism is attacked by a pack of people on social media with arguments such as “you don’t contribute”, “you are a black cloud”, “what are you proposing?”, “it is very easy to talk nonsense and do nothing”, and the very cheesy “I choose to believe” – more worthy of a self-help motivational message than of a serious political analysis.

That is not a good answer. Communicationally, it conveys little understanding of the desperate situation of many. And if there was one thing that Maria Corina had done right, it was precisely to catch the nation’s mood and translate it into clear messages and action.

There is no way to view as positive the opposition leadership’s nonstrategic silence in the face of the most important events that have occurred since July 28 as positive.

First, regarding the impressive popular uprising of July 29th. That political and social rupture that gave us the historic images of the toppling of Hugo Chavez’s statues, the protests in front of Miraflores and the buildings of the Misión Vivienda protesting against the regime. Second, regarding the blocking of X (Twitter): which generated a worldwide fuzz when it was done in Brazil and was barely mentioned by opposition leaders in Venezuela. Finally, the silence, perhaps the most scandalous, regarding the national blackout of August 30th. Added to this is the instability of the electrical system that, even today, has a good part of the country operating at half speed and with constant blackouts.

Was Maria Corina ready for all this? After years of saying that “Venezuela cannot put up with another year,” it would be unforgivable if she were not.

It’s as if the leadership has been overwhelmed by this. As if everything has taken them by surprise and silence is the only response.

We are already seeing massive outwards migration at the borders; a picture of what will happen in the coming months. And it is logical: today’s citizens do not have the money, time, or work to withstand a struggle or a crisis that lasts months or years.

Added to this is the savage repression that took place after July 28. Thousands of people have been arrested, two dozen have been killed, and there have been multiple reports of torture and sexual abuse of detainees. Clavel Rangel, on this website, writes a harsh report on another additional phenomenon: the disappeared by Chavismo. 

Was Maria Corina ready for all this? After years of saying that “Venezuela cannot put up with another year,” it would be unforgivable if she were not.

Risks and opportunities of a hope revival

People are being taken from their homes to never return. Unlike previous times, when they arrested “middle” party leaders, today they have gone after top leaders like Freddy Superlano and Biagio Pilieri, they have assaulted Bejucal (headquarters of Vente Venezuela and now Edmundo González’s Campaign HQ), Juan Pablo Guanipa barely escaped being kidnapped, there are at least seven mayors – elected and in full exercise of their functions! – under arrest and there is an arrest warrant against the person the tallies show to be the President Elect. Today, it is no longer a matter of “running” and “swallowing tear gas.” This is something else.

Machado has a leadership, credibility and popular support that neither Capriles, nor Guaidó, nor anyone else! has had in these 25 years. It is enough to check the results of the results website prepared by Giuseppe Gangi and see that María Corina, the “sifrina”, has been the only opposition leader who has mobilized the 23 de Enero, Catia, Coche, El Valle and Antímano to vote for an opposition option. Her firmness, moreover, is indisputable: she is the firmest and most frontal leader that the opposition has had in these 25 long years.

Machado must not squander the broad support that surpasses that of any other opposition leader. Another disappointment would be definitive.

And this fragility comes from the fact that the current movement was born out of lethargy and a citizenry that had already given up. María Corina resurrected hope in a Venezuela in which, just a year and a half ago, a good part of the country had already given up everything and had given in to political apathy.

Machado must not squander the broad support that surpasses that of any other opposition leader. Another disappointment would be definitive.

Maria Corina changed that. If it ends in another disappointment, we would enter a cycle that in psychology is known as “learned helplessness”, when a living being has the subjective feeling that it has no ability to do anything and does not respond even though there are real opportunities to change the adverse situation – avoiding the unpleasant circumstances. This would be fatal, at least for a generation, because it means a society finally delivered into the arms of the dictatorial order.

I hope not. Maria Corina Machado has a historic responsibility in her hands. Nothing would make me happier than her taking it on.