Caracas Chronicles

Today, it’s Thursday, we had a flurry of statements from key international stakeholders on the Venezuela situation. Efforts from Lula and Petro (and AMLO) to mediate a political solution in Venezuela haven’t made any progress since Elvis Amoroso falsely claimed that Maduro won the presidential elections by 700,000 votes.

Lula built on Amorim’s idea about a second vote after refusing to recognize Maduro as president, in the absence of CNE-disclosed voting tallies:

“Maduro has 6 months left in his term. If he has common sense, he could even call for new elections, creating an electoral committee with opposition members and observers from around the world,” Lula said on live radio, “doing so would clear up any doubts about the process.”

Lula hinted that the electoral system is reliable, but the Chavismo-controlled electoral authority is reluctant to show official results by polling stations. The opposition managed to gather a substantial amount of voting tallies on Election Day and posted them online to show that Maduro lost by great margins.

“The vote (machines) in Venezuela print a ballot. There is proof of the electronic vote. So, what we are asking is for the CNE to say who won showing the actas (the famous voting tallies),” said Lula.

María Corina Machado quickly rejected the idea of a second election, after the opposition ran despite systemic repression and voter suppression.

“To propose a new election shows a lack of respect to Venezuelans and (the vote on) July 28. If you (Maduro) don’t like the result of a second election, what will happen? We’ll go to a third or a fourth until Maduro likes it?”

María Corina Machado

Moments later, Colombian president Gustavo Petro recommended the following course of action in an X thread:

“Removal of all sanctions against Venezuela.
Domestic and international general amnesty.
Total guarantees for political action.
Transitional government of cohabitation.
New free elections.”

He also tweeted that a definitive “political solution that brings peace and prosperity” to the Venezuelan people depends on Maduro’s will.

Speaking in front of Brazil’s Senate, Foreign Affairs Advisor Celso Amorim reiterated that Brasilia will not recognize Maduro as president “if the voting tallies do not appear.”

Tongue in cheek, Maduro rejected proposals from Lula and Petro, claiming that he would never meddle in Brazil or Colombia’s domestic affairs.

“We didn’t say anything when Bolsonaro and the Brazilian far-right said there had been a fraud (when Lula beat them in the 2022 presidential elections),” Maduro said on national television. “I would never give opinions over what Colombia should do to overcome its terrible war, which is getting worse.”

Both Lula and López Obrador said they haven’t spoken with Maduro since the presidential election. AMLO is reportedly withdrawing from the three countries’ diplomatic initiative.

AMLO wants to wait for the vote review process conducted Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), also led by Maduro loyalists. On whether he would support a repeat election, AMLO said: “Let’s wait and see what the Venezuelan court resolves. I think the court will decide tomorrow. I do not think it is prudent for us, foreign governments, to give our opinion on something that is up to the Venezuelans to decide.”

In the afternoon, TSJ President Caryslia Rodríguez announced that the technical examination of electoral materials had begun. She did not specify a timeline or indicate how long the high court would take to issue a final ruling.

Francisco Palmieri, the U.S. top diplomat for Venezuela and Colombia, had spoken before the three amigos. He supports Brazil and Colombia’s intervention and said that dialogue between the Maduro regime and the opposition is the way forward.

Most importantly, Palmieri suggested that the White House could offer concessions to the chavista regime if Maduro accepts his election defeat and stops repressing.

“We will work so that when we get to January 10 (when the next government takes office) we have built a way out of the political crisis, based on the reality that everyone knows: Edmundo González got more votes,” Palmieri told W Radio Colombia.

“The diplomacy of Petro and Lula that calls for transparency and dialogue should be the starting point, before we step in and discuss (any guarantees for chavista leaders).”

Some confusion arose after Biden seemingly responded to Lula’s proposal. According to Reuters, when asked if he would support a repeat election as proposed by Lula, he responded “I do.”

However, U.S. officials walked back Biden’s remark a couple of hours after the statement. A National Security Council spokesperson told NTN24 that the U.S. position remains unchanged, and that the results of the July 28 election should be respected.

Quoting the damning report released by a UN panel of electoral experts, the European Union condemned the ongoing post-electoral repression and the CNE’s lack of transparency over the missing actas. EU top diplomat Josep Borrell endorsed the reliability of voting tallies published by the opposition, which indicate that González Urrutia won, and noted that the CNE has consequently canceled three post-election audits.

“At this critical time, the European Union reiterates its call for the Venezuelan electoral authorities to publish and independently verify the electoral records,”

Borrell said on a written statement.

“Respecting the will of the Venezuelan people remains the only way to restore democracy and to solve the current humanitarian and socio-economic crisis. Venezuelan authorities must put an end to arbitrary detentions and repression against members of the opposition and civil society, and release all political prisoners.”

While we’re still trying to digest today’s insane timeline of statements, one thing seems to be certain: no one is really talking with Maduro. The proposals thrown by Lula and Petro, which by the way confirm what we said last Friday on our Political Risk Report, feel more like an effort to save face after realizing that trying to reason with Maduro & Co. is a dead end.

It was entertaining, though.