Caracas Chronicles

As Polling Closed

By the end of the official polling closing time (6PM), reports of irregularities came in by the hundreds. Some centers closed early, many more refused to close despite there being no voters. Opposition witnesses were being denied entry, people were being refused access to citizen verification, and CNE personnel were generally preventing access to the vote count tallies (actas). Even so, the vote count transmission was underway.

Close to Midnight

By midnight, irregularities had intensified and the vote count transmission had stopped. The process of vote count transmission is electronic and can be stopped at will by the CNE. At this stage, the opposition’s Comando reported having only 30% of the vote count, with quick counts and exit polls all pointing towards a landslide victory for Edmundo González.

Sources within and close to Chavismo reported internal divisions and negotiations, both within factions of Chavismo and with the opposition. At this stage, it was generally believed that a faction within Chavismo was willing to concede their defeat, while another wanted to cling to power, even if it meant showing blatantly fraudulent results. 

Shortly before midnight, Chancellor Yvan Gil published a communiqué denouncing a foreign attack on the elections, specifically blaming Iván Duque, Mauricio Macri, Andrés Pastrana, Oscar Arias, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott. He did not present any evidence.

The CNE Speaks

At 12:10PM last night, CNE President Elvis Amoroso (a close Maduro ally) went on national TV to communicate the official bulletin. Amoroso reported a 59% total participation rate, with 51.2% of the votes for Nicolás Maduro, 44.2% for Edmundo González, and 4.6% for other candidates. He called the tendency “contundente” and irreversible.

It’s mathematically impossible to have an irreversible tendency with the numbers reported by the CNE, as journalist Eugenio Martínez, a respected expert on the electoral system, later pointed out. 

The Opposition Speaks

Around 1AM, Edmundo González and María Corina Machado spoke from the Comando Con Venezuela. Machado said they had 40% of the actas, and they pointed to a 70% victory of Edmundo González. She denied the results given by the CNE and proclaimed González as president elect.

International Response

Reactions from the International Community began immediately. A short list of authoritarian states and hardline Chavista allies (such as Belarus, Serbia and, more importantly, Russia and China) congratulated Maduro on his victory and made no comment about the legitimacy of the election.

A much longer list of nations ranged from asking the CNE for transparency to directly condemning fraud. We compiled international reactions here.

Early Protests and Non-Protests

Neither Edmundo González nor María Corina Machado have called for any form of protesting as of noon on July 29th. They instead focused on calling for witnesses to stay until they had the full vote count (actas) and for people in general to go “in peace and as families” to support the process.

Even so, scattered spontaneous protests and cacerolazos have been reported throughout the country, specifically in many barrios.

Attorney general Tarek William Saab took to the media to support CNE, accuse the opposition of fraud and terrorism, and made a list of all the laws that could be breached, promising prison from 3 to 20 years. 

Maduro Proclaimed

Around 1PM on July 29th, CNE president Amoroso proclaimed Maduro as president reelected. By law, the proclamation is a formality that should come after the results are indisputable and verifiable and any significant incidents have been resolved. Amoroso chose to bypass the process and proclaim Maduro with no additional results and no verification of votes.

Is this Same Old, Same Old?

While elections in Chavista Venezuela have always been fraught with issues, there are a few key distinctions that make this results announcement different.

Historically, most of the electoral issues in Venezuela have been around the conditions towards campaigning , voting and defending the vote. Political persecution, use of public funds for campaigning, assisted voting, harassment or denial of witnesses, and a number of other tactics that make for a very unequal playing field have been the historical tools of Chavismo.

But, at the end of the night, in every Presidential election, the CNE had come out and shared their results, including the total voting count. Even the most contested Presidential election, Maduro vs. Henrique Capriles, had its results announced with a vote count. 

This time, the CNE came out and gave results that had no support or verification whatsoever. For better or worse, and for whatever it means, this is a very different play.

This Was In the Plan (“¿Nos sorprende? No nos sorprende”)

None of this was outside of the expected scenarios. Analysts everywhere and, more importantly, González and Machado, had entirely foreseen the possibility of what some called a “megafraud”, or at least a situation in which the CNE ignored f the regular process of results publication while publishing a number with no base. 

Within that scenario, these first hours and days after the Election Night would be filled with uncertainty, defending the vote and backchannel negotiations, which is exactly what we’re seeing now.