Caracas Chronicles

By 10AM on July 28th, 3.72 million people had already voted in the Venezuelan Presidential Election, according to an opposition report. This represents 17% of the total voting population. By 1PM, no new numbers had been published, so that was the only early participation result. 17% doesn’t sound like a lot, but let’s put that number in context.

100% isn’t 100%

The first thing to consider is that 100% of the voting population includes those who are outside the country, most of whom are unable to vote. Approximately 4 million Venezuelans have a legal right to vote from abroad, out of which only approximately 69,000 have been allowed to. So of the 100% that amounts to around 21 million people, we’re actually dealing with around 15 million.

And it’s never 100%

You can’t expect 100% of people to vote. Venezuela is historically high in participation, but even so, the highest level we’ve reached is 80%, in the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections. The highest participation estimates for this election are around that, which would amount to -in the most ambitious scenario- 13.5 million votes. A more realistic estimate would be around 12.5 million.

So, what does 3.72 million mean?

3,720,000 votes is 27.5% of the highest participation estimate (13,500,000). By 10AM, in a situation where many polling centers opened late. It’s not a small number.

Visually, you can’t really compare this election to the 2012-2013 ones, because there were millions more voters then. Maybe some small centers look empty. Maybe the crowds didn’t look quite as large. But that just means there are fewer people here -not that the ones here aren’t voting. It is the space left by those who left.

Update: By 1PM, the number is 9.3 million

It’s now 3PM in Caracas, and the latest count we have, courtesy of the opposition Campaign Command, is 9,300,000 votes at 1PM. That amounts to 42,1% of the voting population.

Again, the highest vote count Venezuela has ever had was the 2012 election, where there were 15,160,289 votes. This was before over 7.7 million people left the country.

9,300,000 votes amounts to over 68% of the highest estimate, 13.5 million. With five hours of legal time, plus the extra time from delays, the turnout is notably high.