Caracas Chronicles

• During UCAB’s Perspectives 2022 forum economist Luis Bárcenas said that the inflation dynamics are changing in the country. He thinks that hyperinflation will be over by early 2022, because of the availability of foreign currency, cutting down on public spending and restrictions on banking credit. He said citizens distrusting their currency is the beginning of hyperinflation but that hasn’t changed, but they foresee monthly inflation rates lower than 10% and a “7% expansion of economic activity,” which, compared to an 80% contraction is an improvement, even though it’s still insufficient. Bárcenas revealed the regime has a 2,300 million dollar deficit and obtains its main income from the black market economy and exporting non-conventional products like scrap metal or wood. In addition, Venezuela receives around 8,000 million dollars for drug trafficking, gold and extortion. He thinks the dollar will lose 50% of its purchasing power and that the regime will move forward with formalizing the financial dollarization. 

Read more about why, how and when will hyperinflation end. 

• There will be around 8.9 million Venezuelan refugees in 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2022, according to the R4V. 

According to OBMigra, 46,412 refugees in Brazil are Venezuelan citizens, 87% of all petitioners in the last decade. 

• Sociologist Tomás Páez assured that over 1000 people leave the country every day. He said that the worst xenophobic action against Venezuelans is perpetrated by the regime when they say “if they left, they don’t exist.” 
• National Electoral Council board member Roberto Picón denied that the institution migrated thousands of PSUV members to Barinas so they could vote in the election on January, 9th, 2022. 
• Diosdado Cabello threatened  Roberto Picón for violating his post. Cabello accused him of using his position in favor of a political cause. 
• Candidate Claudio Fermín confessed he’s running to face opposition candidate Sergio Garrido, because of Juan Guaidó’s support. 
• The TSJ Electoral Chamber dismissed the request introduced by Avanzada Progresista to hold an election in Lara again. They said the case of Lara isn’t comparable or similar to the case of Barinas. 
• FundaRedes activists finally had their hearing, reported Foro Penal: human rights activists Rafael Tarazona, Omar García and Larry Osorio are going to trial for “promoting hate.” Javier Tarazona was also charged with terrorism and he’s still in prison in El Helicoide. He’s been a victim of torture. 
• The director of the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence Roberto Briceño León warned that we’ll see more inequality in 2022. He said that the de facto dollarization and the reactivation of the economy will increase violence and situations like robberies in public transportation units and stores, the return of gangs, kidnapping and extortion. 
• Cendas-FVM reported that the Christmas food basket, made up of 19 products, costs 1,796 bolivars, or 374 dollars. This represents a 1,168% variation in a year and 256 minimum wages are required to buy it. 

Venezuela is among the 51 countries that the IMF considers won’t be able to recover the GDP they had before the crisis. 

• Súmate denounced that Maduro is campaigning in state media for his Barinas candidate, violating the Constitution, the Anti-Corruption Law and the Electoral Law. 
• An UCAB study found that Venezuelans reduced by 24 to 34% their average spending on food, despite them living in poverty or not. 
• Maduro intends to replace his Oil minister, Tareck El Aissami because his health has deteriorated, said Reuters. PDSVA president Asdrúbal Chávez could be taking over the ministry temporarily. 
• Ten days before the second round of the presidential election in Chile, candidates Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast agreed on a policy to deport anyone who enters the country illegally. 
• President Biden’s Summit for Democracy began yesterday. Juan Guaidó proposed five concrete actions to defend democracy: building a united front that holds authoritarian governments responsible for their crimes, creating mechanisms to protect democratic forces and human rights activists, prioritizing checks and balances, justices and reconciliation, and in the case of Venezuela, committing to an inclusive, negotiated political solution and supporting the countries that receive migrants and refugees.