Caracas Chronicles

Can you be totally screwed and not so screwed at the same time? That’s the befuddling question we’re left with this weekend?

Opposition public opinion has been through the wringer after the latest CNE’s announcement regarding the referéndum recall. It’s not just the absurd conditions that make it logistically impossible to gather the necessary 20%, it’s that if we somehow managed to do the impossible, the recall would take place in 2017, and that would mean no fresh elections.

The MUD’s reaction didn’t help do much to improve the mood, either: that “vénganse el lunes” speech from Chúo left us scrambling to gather scattered tweets and public appearances to try to piece together what was going on. Way to make a cliffhanger MUD, real classy. This can’t be my weekend.

The opposition universe is now roughly divided in two camps: the two states inside the Shrödinger’s Apparatus that is our weekend-long sesión permanente.  Until the quantum state resolves itself, “we are screwed” but also “we are not screwed” are somehow both true at the same time.

TeamScrewed

For some, that delay in the reaction is a clear sign that this political leadership is just not up to the task. May be because the strong internal divisions prevent the MUD from executing any plan, or because they have no clue, didn’t do their homework, and are scrambling at the last minute to figure out what to do.

Maybe because of the arbitrary detentions, their previously discussed plan got too scary, and now not everyone is on board. Since fact checking is irrelevant to public opinión, TeamScrewed is easily in the lede, at least by tweet-count. We don’t know if it’s happening, so it’s happening. And what’s easier than hating a bunch of greasy politicos?

TeamNotScrewed

For this team, the delay is a good thing. It means that they’re not rushing to any decisions. Things are looking grim for the RR, but the sheer numbers are still there. The dictatorship can still be faced peacefully using the overwhelming majority. Quico already described how that might play out.

Now, here’s what we know:

• Accepting CNE conditions is suicide, and demanding better conditions with the current strategies won’t work.
• The MUD knows that, and knows it has to improve its mobilization strategy after a couple of flops (that failed 10 minutes protest, and the mejor no hablemos de eso Toma de Venezuela.)
• MUD is cumbersome. A conglomerate of 15 parties, spread across the country. While PJ, VP, AD and UNT (the so-called G4) can make quick decisions, when you have to consult outside the cogollo you cannot move quickly, especially if that decisión means a real strategic change in the course of action. No hay que pedirle peras al olmo.

I lean towards TeamNotScrewed. I want to believe. But the MUD has made so many blunders before, I’m not signing any blank checks.

The political clock is frozen, and this 5-days delay signals two opposing things simultaneously, a much needed change of course, and the complete inability to face what was probably the most predictable outcome ever. Until they announce their next move on Monday, they will keep facing the consequences of those two, that’s why they are Shrödinger’s MUD now.