Caracas Chronicles

Following on from our list of most likely Tipping Points for the simple majority, we turn to the 3/5th majority. Because three seats have been added to the assembly, this is no longer the once famous Diputado 99. Now it’s the Diputado 101.

On the basis of an ordinal ranking of circuits from least to most chavista, the circuit most likely to bring the opposition our 101st deputy and with it the 3/5ths supermajority is:

Zulia 4

a.k.a., The Maracucho Zurda Konducta Crucible

Where the hell is that? Oeste de Maracaibo

Parroquias Venancio Pulgar, Idelfonso Vásquez, Antonio Borjas Romero

The North-West chunk of Maracaibo is a deeply impoverished, hardscrabble area of seriously violent slums.

You should be picturing this:

Rather than this:

The West been one of the city’s most reliably chavista areas for a long time, and making inroads there is not going to be easy. That we’re even talking of the west of Maracaibo as a place where the opposition could conceivably win goes to show how unfavorable the opinion climate has become for chavismo: this really shouldn’t be a competitive race. But it is.

Best yet, it pits two aspiring young politicos that couldn’t be any farther from one another in terms of style if they tried.

MUD is running Un Nuevo Tiempo’s Elimar Díaz. She graduated in political science from the Universidad Rafael Urdaneta in Maracaibo that has worked with Un Nuevo Tiempo since 2006, when she joined the ranks of the party’s youth wing. She was president of the political science student council and eventually president of UNT’s youth wing. Díaz works closely with current mayor Eveling Trejo, and she’s now in charge of Maracaibo’s Autonomous Institute for the Plaza de Toros, a major maracucho events venture.

Diaz is knee deep in municipal politics, and knows local issues inside and out. Her campaign has focused on local issues like the lack of running water and paved roads. She talks national issues that impact the local area too, though: the alleged embezzlement of funds earmarked for projects in her circuit; the homeownership titles to Misión Vivienda housing; and crime. She comes across as a smart, tough, serious young woman with hints of a cuaima streak.

Her jingle is kind of catch: 

What makes the race really fun, though, is the competition: the incomparable, indescribable Fidel Madroñero, a.k.a., the most entertaining of all the 6D candidates, period.

Madroñero is a rara avis, a kind of marijuanero intenso izquierdoso with a bizarre Cuban/Chilean/Maracucho mongrol accent and hair that just defies categorization.  

He made his name on Zurda Konducta, the insufferable commie-hipster youth show on State TV.

Madroñero was born to be on Zurda Konducta…you can see here his idea of quality journalism:

Amusingly, Elimar Diaz had a bit of a face-to-face meeting with Madroñero. He asks her what she thinks about opposition politicians who like to wear fancy foreign brands. Her demolition of his posturing is…must see tv:

GOD that was satisfying.

Elimar Diaz is a hometown girl made good: as maracucha as maracuchas come, rooted deep in the politics of her home town. Madroñero is…a citizen of the planet, though we can’t confirm which planet that is, exactly.

This is deep red territory.

Chavismo should never have been in trouble here.

Could Elimar Diaz make off with Zulia 4? Tune back in on Sunday night for the answer.