Caracas Chronicles

or, What the hell is North American Opinion Research?

Man, so much swimming only to drown on the water’s edge. Finally chavismo has some good polling news, in the shape of an alarming GQR poll that shows Chavez a few points ahead of the opposition in the referendum question (49% to 44%). It’s enough to keep a good escualido up at night, for sure. But, of course, it’s not enough for Chavismo, which can accept as reality only those numbers that conform with their fantasy ideology, an ideology that relies heavily on an unswerving belief in the fiction of overwhelming popular support for the chavista government.

So instead of sitting pretty on their strong GQR numbers, Martin Sanchez at Venezuelanalysis has to pull a polling firm out of his ass to better maintain the pleasing fantasyscape.

I mean, “North American Opinion Research”?!? Ma dai! If they’re so North American, how come there’s no Google trail of them doing opinion research anywhere outside Venezuela?! Who the hell are they?! And why do I have this sinking feeling that my public money pays their arepa?

The sad thing is that GQR is probably right, and the opposition’s nightmare scenario – Chavez wins a referendum fair and square – has gone from unimaginable to pretty likely in a matter of weeks. Say what you want about populism and petrodollar spending for political ends, but effective? it sure is effective! Romulo Betancourt learned that more than 40 years ago. Chavez learned well.

Looks bad, folks, looks very bad. Sera que ganan los alergicos a la verdad?