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The Candidate
Henrique Capriles
Primero Justicia, Governor of Miranda, elected Opposition Unity Candidate with 64.2% of the vote on February 12th.
Pro: Smart, disciplined politician. Effective governor. Young. One time political prisoner. Non-polarizing figure fanatically committed to an inclusive message NiNis respond well to, with a track-record of working together with chavistas at the grassroots level. Shrewd about attacking Chávez without mentioning him by name, so as to avoid alienating disaffected former Chavistas. Excellent poll numbers in his home state. Improving day by day on the stump.
Con: Not the most exciting speaker. Born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Can come across as a bit of a curmodgeon. Even though his campaign is militantly future-focused (message: I’m not here to re-litigate the last 13 years), he has trouble evoking visceral optimism through his rhetoric. Looks terrible in a suit.
Endorsements: Though he’s nominated by a nominally center-right party (with a heavy emphasis on center), he has recently gotten endorsements from La Causa R and the (until recently pro-Chávez) Podemos and PPT parties, shoring up his left flank and extending his regional party presence from Miranda to Aragua, Lara and Bolívar states, too. Leopoldo López jumped on that bandwagon. Oh, and Juan Cristobal’s voting for him, too.
The deal: Well positioned to unify the opposition, rally NiNis and beat Chávez.
The Also-Rans
Pablo Pérez
Un Nuevo Tiempo, governor of Zulia. Gathered 30.3% of the vote in the February 12th Primary.
Pro: Young, telegenic, governor of a huge state. Does not carry 2002 baggage. Non-controversial, easygoing. UNT’s serious party-machine behind him.
Con: Zuliano – the nation has never elected one, and hasn’t come even close to doing so. Unknown outside his base. Boring public speaker worryingly prone to hilarious malapropisms. Hamfisted on a debate forum. And – dare we say it? – kind of dim.
Endorsements: Though he was nominated by a largely regional Zulia party (UNT), he gained the Acción Democrática (AD) endorsement, which put a truly national party machine at his disposal and will help particularly in rural states, where AD is typically the largest oppo party. The zombie remains of Copei endorsed him too, but didn’t even come close to delivering their home base in Táchira state for him.
The deal: A younger, hunkier, less experienced version of his exiled mentor, Manuel Rosales. His lock on the neo-Adeco/post-Adeco tribe made him a credible contender, but he never established his appeal beyond Zulia and never really came within striking distance of Capriles.
María Corina Machado
Independent, founder of Súmate and National Assembly Member. Gathered 3.7% of the vote in the February 12th primary.
Pro: Excellent public speaker, in a class of her own in the oppo debates. Independent from party machinations. Very smart. Famously driven. Substantive, no-BS campaign grounded on an uncompromising rejection of chavista tyranny and her simply frightening verbal dexterity. Easy on the eyes = lots of free media.
Con: Thin resumé. No party machinery. Visited Pedro Carmona at Miraflores. Visited George W. Bush at the White House. Running as a right-winger in a country that has never elected one. Upper-crust accent and body-language may not play well in Venezuela’s barrios and rural areas. Faces deep-seated prejudice against beautiful women in positions of power.
Endorsements: None that matter.
The deal: With her Popular Capitalism campaign slogan, she was the one unapologetic conservative in the race. Logic suggests the middle class oppo hardcore should have loved this, but she underperformed badly in the primary.
Diego Arria
Former Venezuelan ambassador to the U.N., and appointed D.F. Governor. Won 1.3% of the primary vote.
Pro: Deep international experience. Fantastically bright.
Con: Plainly more at ease in the U.N. Security Council than in a Caucagüita Community Council. Campaign seems to exist only on Facebook. Paleozoic.
The Deal: Had a very brief, minor boomlet after the first debate, before we all came back to our senses. Running for Foreign Minister.
Pablo Medina
Won 0.5% of the primary vote.
Pro: Colorful.
Con: Go it alone obsessive, eccentric rant-prone old lefty/Causaerrista rabble-rouser. Over the hill.
The deal: Like the crazy uncle you steer clear of in family gatherings lest you be made the unwilling receptacle of one of his slightly unhinged rants. Failed to come up with the Ballot Access fee, MUD’s decision to even let him run questionable (and charity-based.)
Drop Outs - (On the MUD Ballot – votes will be counted as null)
Leopoldo López
Dropped out January 24th and endorsed Henrique Capriles.
Voluntad Popular, Former Mayor of Chacao
Pro: Born talker, fearsome campaigner, could sell ice to an eskimo. Slick communications team. Beautiful smile. Very smart. Young. Evokes passionate commitment from his staff. Knows his CCTs from his CCCTs: serious about running on a fleshed out governing program.
Con: Entangled in a baffling administrative dispute that could disqualify him from taking office – though not from running for it. Weirdly underwhelming in the oppo debates. Not a team player: has abandoned not one but two mainline opposition parties in the last six years in favor of his own personal vehicle party. Worrying caudillistic tendencies. Thin resumé. Can come across as an over-scripted and over-focus-grouped automaton.
Endorsements: Proyecto Venezuela’s endorsement would have helped in vote-rich Carabobo State.
The deal: It’s a testament to his fearsome public communications skills that he was ever a serious contender even though he may or may not be eligible to be president. He lagged in the polls, though, and never managed to establish his relevance in a race that Henrique Capriles ran away with.
Drop Outs - (Not on the MUD Ballot)
Cecilia Sosa
Former Supreme Court Chief Justice, (back when we had a Supreme Court) – bowed out Nov. 2nd.
Pro: Long experience.
Con: Where to start? Maybe here.
The deal: Really, Cecilia? Really!?
Antonio Ledezma
Alianza Bravo Pueblo, Mayor of Greater Caracas – bowed out Oct. 31st.
Pro: Tireless politician, a darling of the radical opposition who can also attract centrist votes. Good at the old-style populist harangue. Adaptable, quick thinking Pol.
Con: Adeco roots. Comando Nacional de la Resistencia branches. Strong whiff of the jurassic about him. Chavismo would assail him for being CAP’s dauphin.
Endorsements: Now that AD has endorsed Pablo Pérez, he’s a bit of an Arroz con Pollo sin pollo.
The deal: Staked everything on AD’s endorsement. Now that he didn’t get it, he’s a borderline no-hoper.
Eduardo Fernandez
Dropped out October 30th
Pro: Only opposition candidate Hugo Chavez takes seriously. Tons of experience. Decent and smart man. Has a better worked-out rationale for why he should run – because he can manage the transition – than any of his opponents.
Con: Invisible for the last 13 years.
The deal: The runner-up in the 1988 election, he couldn’t win at the peak of his powers. Classy guy, but the definition of someone over the hill in today’s Venezuela.
Cesar Pérez Vivas
Copei, governor of Táchira - Dropped out October 10th.
Pro: Tachirense. Has a real base of support.
Con: Old Style politico. No name recognition or party machine outside his state.
The deal: Campaign = Ego Trip. (Or perhaps, Campaign = Positioning for Cabinet Seat.)
Oswaldo Alvarez Paz
Copei, former governor of Zulia and parliamentarian.
Bowed out Oct. 7th, 2011.
Kiko, just writing to tell you that on Ledezma’s “Con” you wrote “comando caTional”, and it should have been “comando naCional” since your writing the name in spanish.
Take care… relly like the new blog’s “look and feel”.
Este post dice lo obvio, pero it cracked me up por witty. Really, MCM has chances? MCM is building a political machine? Where is it, con sede en el Colegio Don Bosco de Altamira? Creo que ella sabe que tiene chances pero sólo si gana un opositor en el 2012 y cuando el país esté menos polarizado y no esté pidiendo lo que pide ahorita. Lo otro, es verdad que Henri Falcón no tiene chances de ganar primarias, pero no sería el VP ideal? (especialmente porque he is appointed, not elected… porque tiene tiene un appeal completamente distinto a Capriles y entonces el pool de electores se expande). Creo que el duo HCR – HF es lo que manda, sino, Ledezma, para calmar a las mariaalejandralopez forever. Qué piensan?
pienso que deberías usar un idioma u otro.
I meant campaign organization, not political machinery, when I referred to MCM
I believe women are the hope for Venezuela. Either Caprilles will be President or Vice-President
and Maria Corina Machado-either President or Vice-President. This ticket will
beat Chavez.-either way.
CharlesC – I don’t believe the gender of the next president should matter at all. There are good and bad women, so there are good and bad men.
agree totally. There’s the good, the bad and the ugly in all walks of life.
I agree with you the gender should be irrelevant. And yet I think Capriles and Machado should marry. It would increase this soap opera character of Venezuelan reality.
Maybe she should marry Chavez!
I always imagined that some sort of a venezuelan Mata Hari would just do the trick to take Chavez out….lol
Faces deep-seated prejudice against beautiful women in positions of power.
Outside of MCM’s obvious accomplishments, albeit on a smaller scale than other politicos, and her artfully downplayed beauty, she seems to be too interested in the limelight and how she appears in it. I think the only antidote to that is a couple more years honing her skills in the political trenches and battling away. That’ll give her more political acumen, and better defined objectives.
In the process, I hope she learns to get jiggy wit da pueblo and lose that whiny sifrina accent. If she can manage all of the above suggestions, I’d venture to say that MCM will likely be a formidable candidate — in future. I don’t think her time is now — as a presidential candidate.
“Faces deep-seated prejudice against beautiful women in positions of power.” Where the hell did you take this? That’s pure BS.
Perhaps it is a BS statement — for many men. But is it BS for women voters, currentIy weighing the options?
I think in the eyes of men and women voters, how beautiful a woman candidate is a non-issue once they take into account all the relevant characteristics (i.e., leadership, charisma, ideology, etc.) of the candidate. Of course, if she didn’t have the right mix of characteristics and, as a result, people didn’t like her to be the next president, you’d probably hear a lot people saying “she’s just a pretty face”. Perhaps, you’d hear that more often from women. But again, if she were the right person to be president, I think (almost) nobody would not vote for her just because she’s beautiful.
Pero bueno chico! La correción política parece haber cegado a algunos por aquí, no estamos hablando de Inglaterra, es Venezuela y efectivamente sí existen prejuicios hacia las mujeres (especialmente las bellas) en puestos de poder! No es lo ideal, pero el autor está hablando del “ser”, no del “deber ser” que suele ser muy diferente.
Henrique Capriles: do not forget as a con: Leader of an foreign armed country Embassy assault, with a crowd of bandits he cuts the water, power and food supply for everybody in the embassy (including the kids of the Ambassador). A criminal in any single country of the world. If he does that in U.S.A would be buried in a deep hole.
You’re right, I almost forgot.
Pro: Former political prisoner.
Cesar Perez Vivas is out!? Need to update this…http://eltiempo.com.ve/venezuela/politica/cesar-perez-vivas-se-retiro-de-la-carrera-presidencial/34351
In a three-way-race, wuth Capriles leading the pack, what would be the best strategy for PP and LL? Both have to aimed for capriles voters but also defend their own votes against the other (and try to get voters also from the other adversary).
What is the logic behind leaving Diego Arria out of The Oppo Field guide?
Right you are. Included.
The honest answer is that I hadn’t included him because I see no real proof that his campaign quite exists outside of Facebook. You got a youtube link to a Stump Speech?!
I don’t know about a youtube video but he collected 200k signatures and is bringing them to the MUD sometime this week (tomorrow or Wednesday I think) to officially sign up as a candidate.
Candidates supported by political parties do not have to do this, but the guy is running as an independent so the MUD requires the signatures.
The Tiger is dropping out as well:
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111030/eduardo-fernandez-declina-candidatura-para-promover-el-dialogo
I was hoping for a “jaloguin” special from CC today ;-(
Diego Arria – Too many plastic surgeries gone wrong
Cecilia Sosa – The Venezuelan Large Marge (Pee Wee Herman)
Hugo Chavez – When Java the Hut got sick…
Maria Corina Machado – Is getting jiggy with da pueblo but she can’t wear her Bling Bling
In other news I love me some Caracas Chronicles!
Great post. I still think Lopez will be the greater hit with his charismatic self. Speeches and charisma did have a lot to do with getting Chavez in, it wasn’t a long resume that’s for sure.
His resumé wasn’t long, but it was poignant:
-…
- De vaina tumba un presidente.
-…
Just read this profile piece on MCM in Ultimas Noticias:
http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/maria-corina-estuvo-enamorada-de-un-muerto.aspx
How can it be that only after reading this piece is that I realize that she is from THE Machados. I mean, when my grandma or my mom tried to remind us that we were not that affluent, that was the surname Machado that would come up, as in “Who do you think we are? The Machados?”
I always thought that that oligarchy crap was only true in other countries like the US, where the congress is made out of millionaires. But now I realize that we’re now turning into that: Capriles Radonski (family owns Cinex and whatnot), Machado, Lopez (was schoolmate of Capriles) and Arria. Go figure…
Sorry for the “Crap, I’m poor” rant, but I guess that me being a struggling professional, I can rule out “Future President of Venezuela” as a viable option for my little daughter…
Sort of Off topic, but I can’t figure out how to email Quico and Juan. I wanted to send them this link and see what they thought about this whole piece:
http://porlaconciencia.com/?p=2121
Any merit to the claim of the million of ghost voters that have been added to the rolls of the CNE?
My own takes is that this is back to the tired claim of massive fraud conspiracy. Chavismo is such an inept movement that I simply don’t buy this. However, if there is any truth to the claim, why is this being ignored?