Caracas Chronicles

yow. The speed of decline is accelerating fast, isn't it?

 We are seeing eye to eye.  I have been accused of so much negativism in the past and now I feel everyday more and more vindicated.  Not that it brings me much joy, mind you......How long until we start packing?

What a sad day when he starts taking away the people's right to surf what they want on the internet. Does anyone think this will stir Venezuelanos into action or is it too far gone?

Well, I am posting again my comment on “A crisis Chávez can't import his way out of by Juan Cristobal on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 15:07” because it was premonitory.

Quote: “Not so straight forward - Perhaps, the odds to win majority in the National Assambly are better than before. Perhaps, the blackouts, the water rationing, the high crime rate and especially a likely high inflation rate and deterioration of purchase power, will favor these odds. However, knowing the fundamental political approach in communists’ psyche (as I learned from the bohemian phase of my life), “the end justified the means”; they will overcome any opposition victory in the National Assambly (as many in this Blog have already posted). They will used legal, paralegal and even illegal means . Just, we have to remember how the administration of airports and harbors will forcedly reaped from regional governments despite of the fact that our Constitution unequivocal states it as a regional competence. In addition, we should always keep in mind that even in the worst-case-scenery for them, the government will still have considerable support (I could guess ..... not less than 40 – 45 % of population support). With that level of public support (higher than that of many Latino American countries – e.g. Peru or Mexico) and controlling the Supreme Court, the Army and other key institution, this government will continue doing what ever they want, unless, we have a kind of dissuasive armed card to show in this disturbing political game . Communists only understand by force and only seat to negotiate by force. History is full of examples to support this viewpoint. I am not asking for a coup d'état, it is too gross and inconvenient. We need something more sophisticated and intelligent that make them to realize that we are not at their mercy and so absolutely defenseless from power abuse (and when I say “we”, we are at least 50 % of Venezuelans).”

... censor internet, or the ability of Venezuelans to post whatever they like on sites hosted outside Venezuela. I think all of you are being overly pessimistic, and wrongly believe that chavismo can pull this one. Folks Ramirito Valdez and the Castro bros have not been able to do so in Cuba. Need I say more?

I spend a lot of time, like all of us, thinking about what may happen to our dear Venezuela in the near future.

We have much hope placed upon the upcoming parliamentary elections. It seems the opposition has the chance of a decent showing and perhaps even win a majority.

Now, imagine that, against all odds, this happens. How do we think the government is going to react? Will they take the defeat sitting down? Unlikely. Imagine for a second they respond radically, dissolving the Assembly (as JC suggests). What should we do? What can we do? (Other than cry "Not fair!" at international organizations and to the US and the EU governments). Will there be a reaction from within Chavismo or the military? What will it be? How should we react to it?

We always seem to plan only one step ahead. Right now we are focused only on the upcoming elections (which, granted, is a lot considering the complexity of reaching consensus under the circumstances) but we should attempt to compile a list of possible future scenarios and responses so we can plan ahead and not react futilely.

Cheers

ECG

O Palhaço Miraflores?