CaracasChronicles.com has been the place for opposition-leaning-but-not-insane analysis of the Venezuelan political scene since 2002. Run in partnership by Juan Cristobal Nagel and Francisco Toro – two Venezuelan political junkies abroad – its goal is to breathe life, insight and wit into a discussion too often dominated by fringe loonies of all political stripes.
Since 2012, Gustavo Hernández Acevedo has joined the team, reporting from Barquísimeto on Venezuela beyond the capital.
How sovereign a state can it be when we no longer can feed our people and rely on Cuba and other countries for every decision that is made to screw its populace. How sovereign a state is it that is dependent on Cuba to regulate its people’s identity documentation and the registries that are in charge of all our properties.
Shades of Torres…
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/03/spreading_the_wealth
Just saw this. Awesome.
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CC authors,
Would it be possible to have a topic suggestion box for the readers? or an email addy where we can send topic suggestions for future articles?
Just an idea,
-A CC addict :)
Hello Francisco Toro,
Thank you for sharing your perspective on the FDA Venezuela Report.
The FDA’s mission is to advance the fairness and transparency of democratic processes wherever elections occur. The FDA is a non-partisan organization guided by objectivity, soundness, and transparency.
The FDA’s Venezuela Report is based on an audit of the constitutional and legislative basis for Venezuelan democracy. We acknowledge that the application of laws and the public’s response to them would impact, either positive or negative, the laws themselves. Also, a country’s constitution and electoral laws are a part of the reality of its democracy.
We regret that you do not agree with our findings. If we have misinterpreted the Venezuelan constitution or electoral laws, please inform us.
Sincerely yours,
Stephen Garvey
FDA Executive Director
Hi Stephen, how are you feeling today?
My first question is, why did you remove from Youtube that groundbreaking video post of yours about how the elites control elections? For us Venezuelans, ruled by a castroite militaristic elite, your message was soo revealing, we didn’t know any better you see, would you care to post it again, so that we can share around the country?
Your report was brilliant by the way. We look forward to further assessments of our electoral systems, legislation and democracy by your foundation/
Dear FDA Executive Director,
You wrote “the application of laws and the public’s response to them would impact, either positive or negative”.
So: if the law says something and the application of said law is equal to zero, will that have an “impact” on the law? You talk about objectivity. What does “impact on the law” mean to you?
Now: what do you think about the constitution of the German Democratic Republic?
What do you actually think of the Weimar constitution? Do you think there was an impact on its non-application due to state of exception or any other detail during the 1933-1945 time? Do you think the constitution was then “impacted”? Do you think the Weimarer republic’s law was part of the reality during that time in Germany? In how much was is part of reality then?
In a very impressive video of yours you talked about what you saw as the only difference between you and Socrates. Which Socrates do you mean? Do you perhaps mean Sócrates Brasileiro Sampaio de Souza Vieira de Oliveira? Because I do see more differences. Or you mean José Sócrates, former Prime Minister of Portugal? Because even if Chávez liked him as well, I do see more differences between you two.
Then there is also a Socrates of Achaea, but you cannot mean him because he was just a mercenary and you are, I reckon, a very distinguished, well-respected scholar. So: which Socrates do you mean?
Thanks for your response
Yours sincerely,
Kepler, Venezuela-Europa Chief Executive Officer
Hi Stephen,
“Did not agree with” is a funny way to put it:
YOU DIDN’T PROOF-READ THE GOOGLETRANSLATE BOT’S TRANSLATIONS BEFORE YOU PUBLISHED THEM.
That’s not about agreement or disagreement, that’s about you failing to clear even the very lowest bar of competence imaginable!
cheers,
quico
Hello Stephen Garvey,
Thank you for sharing your organization’s mission. I have some questions.
If the FDA acknowledges “that the application of laws and the public’s response to them would impact, either positive or negative, the laws themselves,” then how do you account for this variable when your compute your data?
What financial sources help to sustain your organization? And who or what would be your biggest benefactor?
If your organization prides itself on transparency, might you not suppress the music voice-over during your videotaped work sessions and meetings?
I look forward to hearing from you. Gopala.
Syd
Canadian-Venezuelan citizen
So sorry, Stephen, the music voice-over was my fault. Turns out, I had an Indian video queued in my disc drive with a repetitive “Gopala” as musical score, which in turn, was interfering with the audio from YouTube.
I’m just now listening to your various work sessions, and I must say, it’s a scintillating experience.
My other questions stand, and I look forward to your response.
S.
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what happened to the search bar?
Francisco, me llamo Cristina Espinal y estudio en la the universidad London School of Economics. Quisiera proponerte algo, me puedes dar tu email? Muchisimas gracias!
La Dinamica Caracas 2012
Does Gustavo as a new member of the team get mention in the “About” section?
looks like Jaua is going to be replaced by Maduro. If so, something is in the air.
Hello. I was wondering where I could get my hands on a high res copy of the photo of Caracas on the home page?
By the way, I love reading this blog. The quality of the writing is exceptional. Well done! I am from Sydney, Australia and my partner is a caraquena. I’ve been to Venezuela 3 times and have become fascinated by the country, especially its social and political situation.
No aclare que oscurece, caballero.
When you talk on surveys, you must know exactly what are you talking about. If social research would be so easy as to add up and to subtract, anyone could call himself an expert of it. In order to visualize the en results in PowerPoint, I reduced the data of, such as, Henrique Capriles, to a percentage of which cannot be obtained adding vertically but horizontally:
Henrique Capriles 36.67 35.11 38.22
If you add the percentage of men who would vote for Capriles (35,11 %) and of women voting for him, and divides the result by 2, you will obtain 36,665 %, which is equivalent, rounding, of 36,67 %. If yo do the same operation with Chávez, you will obtain 34,00 %, etc. Due of value TV time, and to simplify the information for the target understanding, I used a format which is globally used.
“I reduced the data of, such as, Henrique Capriles, to a percentage of which cannot be obtained adding vertically but horizontally: Henrique Capriles 36.67 35.11 38.22″
No nos queda claro, is that Henrique Capriles Radonzki you’re referring to, or Henrique Capriles Radonski?
Actually, my head is still turning by just how gloriously mangled your explanation is. So to get the percentage wanting to vote for each candidate, you took the arithmetic mean of the percentage of men and women wanting to vote for him…but but…but…but you did the poll! you had the raw data, right?! I mean wouldn’t it make more sense to compute it from…you know, the whole sample?!!?!
As for formats that are “globally used”, erm, I’m not sure you quite grasped the concept of pie behind the idea of a pie chart. The following exercise might help:
Next time you have a family gathering, I suggest you buy a pie. (Personally I like Lemon pie, but let me stress, the kind of pie you buy isn’t important here). When the time for dessert comes, your job is to cut a slice accounting for 36.67% of the pie and give it to your wife. Then cut slices that account for 34%, 25.56%, 21.00%, and 2.2% (this one you can shove off onto that one cousin who always says “dame uno chiquitico que estoy a dieta”) of the pie.
Hand those around the table.
Then come back here and tell us how you got on!
Hola Francisco!! Necesito enviarte un correo,quisiera proponerte que leyeras un par de blogs que pueden interesarte. May I please have your email ?
Thanks
Marianella
[sum(x_i, from i=1 to n) / n + sum(y_i, from i=1 to m) / m]/2
= sum(x_i, from i=1 to n) / (2n) + sum(y_i, from i=1 to m) / (2m)]
which is *not* equal to
[sum(x_i, from i=1 to n) + sum(y_i, from y=1 to m)]/(n+m)
Luis Garcia Planchart,
You said “When you talk on surveys, you must know exactly what are you talking about.”
Well, when you DO surveys, you must know exactly what you are DOING.
Not only that, but you should also be HONEST. And if your are not going to be honest, at least you should not be stupid, or assume that people are stupid, because in order to present those percentages, and then give the explanation you gave above, you must have assumed that the people who write here are retards.
And why didn’t you post this in the main thread? (can the moderators move these replies to the right place?)
luis garcía planchart,
The average of the percentage of men and the percentage and women does not equal the direct percentage of both unless there’s an equal number of men and women. What you describe is simply wrong, let alone a global standard, let alone from “experts”.
Also, regarding rounding, strictly speaking, 36,665 rounds down to 36,66, not up to 36,67 because it ends with a 5 and nothing past the 5.
Adding to the above, I suggest you look up significant figures and/or pie charts and consider why nothing past a single decimal makes sense here.
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N.B.: rounds down because the 6 previous to the ending 5 is an even number…
The above two extorres comments are not from me. To whomever is pretending to be me, there is a way to distinguish them, btw.
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Sorry, wrong forum.
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Greetings, I wonder if you have read this piece http://venezuelaaldia.com/las-verdades-de-miguel/ there’s a part that talks about the numbers and how Chavez got to a cealing… I know Miguel might not be Leon but he has got some good predictions before plus… he is a revolutionary not an oposition guy
Good Morning Francisco,
Be sure I feel GOOD reading Your article How Hugo Became IRRELEVANT in todays NY – times.
Rodger in finland
I read your article “How Hugo Chávez Became Irrelevant” congratulations for such fine piece. Nevertheless i have an observation; how come you include Guatemala in the list of countries that have reduced poverty through major social reforms without turning their backs on democratic institutions or private property rights along with Uruguay and Brazil? Problably you made a mistake. The times correct those kinds of errors upon the authors request. To appear in the Op Ed pages of the NY Times is an accomplishment for every writer.
Greetings from the Dominican Republic
Read your N.Y. Times piece today. Capriles is a shifting snake and you portrayed him in the light of the Brazilian left? You make it to the N.Y. Times and then write this deceptive nonsense??? What a disgrace.
Thank you for this article. To me, this distinction is so important. When the right in America speaks of socialism, what they usually mean is the authoritarianism of Chavez, etc. It is possible to have a more free system rooted in democracy that I believe America needs.
As Jimmy Carter has explained, Venezuela has the cleanest and fairest elections in the Hemisphere. Hugo Chavez is also the best thing that has happened in the Hemisphere since 1959.
Yeah, well … as Moises Naim has explained, in the 21st century you don’t rig an election on voting day, you rig it in the year leading up to it. And by the way, Hugo Comandante Chavez is no Jimmy Carter.
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Crapriles wants to rescind all oil deals made with Russian and Chinese companies and he loves Israel. Which of these positions are followed by the centre-left in Brazil?
Oh, I get it: in your picture you look like a good jewish boy. no wonder you like Crapriles and Israel.
Oy gevalt.
Such prejudice is nauseating. No real and intelligent contribution.
Oh, my. The crazies have started coming out from under their rocks…
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Your comparison of the two lefts in Latin America is fundamentally flawed. There would be no space for the reformist left except for the greater threat to imperialism that the radical left represents. Reformist experiments in Brazil, Guatemala and elsewhere, and somewhat more radical electoral socialism in Chile, were crushed by CIA interventions and military coups in favor of radical capitalist privatization and death squad governments (as was attempted unsuccessfully against Chavez himself). The coups in Honduras and Paraguay represent the fact that such anti-democratic manifestations are still available in the imperialist quiver whenever the opportunity presents itself. The prospect of right-wing secessionism is another newer response to left electoral success in Latin America. Imperialist economic and financial pressure is once again being exerted against Argentina. I often find Noam Chomsky irritating, but his analysis that cold-war anti-communism and its subsequent variants provided only a convenient ideological cover or pretext for the same US imperial interventionism that preceded the Russian Revolution, and that survived the collapse of the Soviet Union, is persuasive in this regard.
And another one crawls out…yikes!
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Very good blog, los felicito :)
Hy fellows. My name is Rosana, i’m a brazilian journalist and i’m trying to get in contact to you. Can someone of the blog write to me? I think you could realy help me in a journalism emergency situation. Thanks, waiting. (rosanassauro@yahoo.com.br)
Hi Francisco Toro, my name is Andrea Piontkovski, I am working with to the former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro who is the President of the Institute of the Americas in San Diego, CA. He is very interested in your blog and asked me to figure out your email. Could you please send me a email as soon as you can? My email is andreapiontkovski@gmail.com By the way, excellent blog! ;)
Very good blog! Very interesting . I will follow you!!
Hi! I have followed your Blog for some time. We are starting to create our own one in the Uk, with a group of panas.. more than a blog it is a FB page. It is a big learning curve. But we think it is important to inform people of what is happening in venezuela and stop el mito de que la oposcion es una minoria burguesa mal criada. This is our page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Venezuelans-speaking-up-in-the-UK/483766375011212?fref=ts
If you like it let us know, if you don’t as well.. feed back is important. If you think it is worth promoting on your blog (in the links you have), please go ahead. That would be great. We will do the same, as soon as we find out how to set it up. Great jog and keep it up. You will see we took some ideas from here… I think making a global front is important.
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestoryamericas/2013/05/2013525103017186999.html. Go to 11:58 to hear Oliver Stone lump together Vietnam, Honduras and Venezuela. I do agree the USA should by now recognize Maduro. However, if ever the phrase “Champagne Socialist” fit the foot, Cinderella is alive and well, wine tasting in NYC or LA.