Politics

Tipping Point Circuits: The Simple Majority

The circuit most likely to bring the opposition its 84th curul is home to two well known, widely loathed chavista incumbents - Ernesto Villegas and Freddy Bernal - being challenged by two newcomers.

Francisco Toro

Which is the circuit most likely to bring the opposition a simple majority? Which one most likely to bring it a 3/5ths majority? And the covetted 2/3rds? It’s a question you need to be asking less than a week before the vote. And we’re here to help.

We carried out a simple exercise to investigate which circuits are most likely to represent the 84th, the 101st, and the 112th seat for the opposition. Basically, we just order circuits from most opposition to most chavista on the basis of election results since 2010, then weight them by the number of deputies they elect, then identify the circuits most likely to “tip us over” into each of the majorities.

This isn’t an exact science, but it does give us some sense of the kinds of places where we need to be competive to win each type of majority. And so, with no further ado,

The circuit most likely to bring the opposition its 84th diputado is

Distrito Capital 1

a.k.a. el oeste del oeste.

Tipping Point Circuit Maps.001

DC-1 is the prototypical urban chavista district: poor, hardscrabble, dangerous but, well, urban.

Where the hell is that? Catia and El Junquito

Parroquias: El Junquito, Sucre, La Pastora

It’s a two-member circuit, one that by coincidence we’ve already profiled. Both MUD candidates are VP activists. The first is longtime community leader Jesús Abreu. He’s lived in Catia his whole life and obviously has a following there: he won his nomination in an open primary. Fun fact, he only ever wears alpargatas.

 

 

The other MUD candidate is Marialbert Barrios, a young VP Primero Justicia activist who speaks fast and thinks faster. Marialbert had to be parachuted into this spot at the last minute after CNE imposed new gender balance quotason the race. She seems pretty impressive.

These two relative unknowns are taking on two PSUV candidates whoa re household names: Ernesto Villegas, the former chavista news anchor, and Freddy Bernal, the hyper-radical former cop and Caracas mayor who’s known as one of the government’s enforcers. Ernesto represents what’s left of chavismo’s leftist moderate faction, Freddy a much more radicalized and military infused wing. It would be enormously sweet to take them down…also, it looks likely, as this is very much the kind of district the opposition would have to take for a simple majority.

The PSUV campaign hasn’t been all that glowing in Catia. You know things are bad when this is the kind of picture your candidates are posting to their twitter accounts:

CUyNUcKWcAAPQRL

I’m no expert, but…ummmmmmmm…

Twitter was full of fun gossip about the rally-that-never-was in DC-1 on November 26th.

 

It would be sooooo sweet for a guy in alpargatas and a young girl to take down Ernesto friggin’ Villegas and Freddy friggin’ Bernal, wouldn’t it?

 

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