Reading the god-given tea leaves

The President, and some guy with a moustache

The President, and some guy with a mustache

Let’s recap Monday’s events:

  1. A conversation is leaked between Mario Silva and a Cuban intelligence operative, in which it is made clear that the Maduro faction in this government is heavily influenced by the Cubans. In it, Silva suggests that the military – at the prodding of Diosdado Cabello – is plotting against Maduro.
  2. In the meantime, Maduro goes on live TV, deploying armed forces to safeguard civilians as part of his crime-control Plan Patria Segura in Zulia, Carabobo, and Lara. In his appearances, he is flanked by high-ranking military personnel, including the Minister of Defense, Admiral Diego Molero, whom Silva referred to when talking about a fictitious coup-plot. Silva insisted that Molero is a loyal Chavista “willing to rise up and demand blood for treason…” (interesting), insisting that he should be kept in his Defense Cabinet post at all costs, lest Diosdado gets that into his head.
  3. During his parallel live broadcast, Maduro never directly alluded to Silva’s audio, but instead referred to the great benefits that the armed forces have received following his approval of a salary raise for the military, and the fact that “according to information” he has received, “military families are happier.” He went on to say that if the opposition got its way, the military would be divided and start “oppressing the people,” and finished his delivery by asserting that “I am not here to be a weak President. […] I’ve been called stupid (bruto), and here I am, going forward with the people.” Oh, the name-calling, tsk tsk opposition people.
  4. Then, hours later, from Vargas state, Maduro, en cadena, flanked again by military personnel, gives a speech celebrating the launch of a military school vessel by praising “the purest value of our homeland: military honor.” Again, making no explicit mention of that noon’s press conference, Maduro called upon the Navy to “stand guard before lies, manipulation and intrigue,” touting his “immense pride” over the Venezuelan Navy, and ceremoniously handing the National Bolivarian Forces standard to the vessel’s captain, which was then raised. When presented, in return for his honors, with a miniature version of the military vessel, Maduro replied to the cadets “Our supreme commander Chávez left you our homeland, defend it, build it, and lead it when your turn comes around.” Aaaa…HA!
  5. Meanwhile, Mario Silva took to Twitter to blame the Mossad and the CIA for their montage of his alleged conversation, promising an immediate response, but shortly after recanting his promise and stating he would wait till his 11:00 p.m. TV show La Hojilla to air his statement.
  6. At 11:15 pm La Hojilla opened with a huffy Mario Silva, who instead of delivering his usual opening monologue, hastily goes to a tape of Maduro, during his earlier Patria Segura act, going on about peace and safety and values and… oh-oh! The video was interrupted by random news of a Portugal Commerce Minister meeting happening LIVE in Miraflores regarding computers and …  WAIT A SEC. WHO´S THAT WALKING BEHIND MADURO AND THE PORTUGUESE MINISTER FOR NO APPARENT REASON ON LIVE TV?? WHY IT´S NONE OTHER THAN… Diosdado Cabello!
  7. So after this gratuitous interlude of Portuguese-Venezuelan commercial relations… and what a coincidence! Diosdado creepily showing up next to Maduro … back to La Hojilla, and now Mario Silva reads his press release on air.

“Rechazo la grabación categóricamente. Mi apoyo irrestricto al Presidente Maduro, a todas las Instituciones: A Diosdado, a Molero, a la hermosa fuerza armada, al poder judicial, al poder electoral y al pueblo Venezolano. La derecha arremete contra el Comandante Fidel, Raul, contra el pueblo Cubano. Rechazo contundentemente el plan de la derecha de vincular al pueblo Cubano con su desestabilización, un pueblo que solo nos ha traido salud y deporte. Si tengo que inmolarme por la revolución Bolivariana, lo hare. Mi apoyo irrestricto a Maduro.  Me pongo frente a la justicia para que se investigue lo que se deba investigar, no le temo a nada. Ismael Garcia es putrefacto.  Pongo a la disposicion el Programa La Hojilla. Siempre fue un programa de Chávez, y ahora es un programa de Maduro. Siempre con Chávez y Maduro. Hasta la victoria siempre.”

Roughly translated: It’s all lies, I love Maduro, and Diosdado, and Molero, and the Armed Forces, and Cuba, and the right wing is guilty of everything, and if I have to fall on my sword for the team I’ll do it, if I have to leave my show I’ll do it. Oh, and I might be taking a “health” leave from this show for a few days.

8.  Lastly, a nonchalant Cabello sound-byte was published in the press (after La Hojilla aired), stating that “no one will divide Chavismo” and that he wholeheartedly supports Maduro.

So, whats the score so far?

Well, 10 points to Mario Silva for agreeing to…how shall I put this lightly…”consume feces” for the sake of Diosdado.

4 points plus a high five and a pat on the head to Maduro for remaining soberly silent about Mario-Silva-Gate throughout the day, AND for laying on the FANB ass-kissing THICK. En cadena.

100 points to Diosdado Cabello for being Darth Vader AND Hannibal Lecter on the same day.  And then showing up at Miraflores just to mug for the cameras and rub it in Maduro’s and Silva’s faces. Cue in Destiny’s Child “Survivor.”

And finally, a negative 857 points to the Venezuelan people, for if Diosdado gets his way and it’s true that he has, to quote Mario Silva, “all the power without being President,” we are about to enter a world of pain that no Cuban doctor can cure.

(The jury is still out on how many posthumous points Chávez gets for everything staying according to plan…)

Juan Cristóbal chimes in: What’s clear, folks, is that Diosdado Cabello is untouchable. He is the pillar upon which “chavismo sin Chávez” is built. The evidence that Cabello is undermining the Revolution with his corrupt ways is staring Maduro in the eye just as clearly as that picture in the Museo Militar. When faced with the choice of throwing Silva or Cabello under the bus, Maduro chose Silva.

Chavistas should not kid themselves about who’s really in charge here.

91 thoughts on “Reading the god-given tea leaves

  1. Again, there is a game of thrones afoot! So with Mario squashed to the ground and becoming a chavista roadkill, who in his right mind is gonna be talking against the regime now? this is a a clear message to the masses, to say Chavismo does bad things is ok, to speak out however is to be buried by the comunista stamroller no matter how high you are in the ranks!!!

  2. May I just say that Emiliana and I had a Skype call last night until 2 am, and by 6 am this post was ready. That’s what I call work ethic folks. Thanks for this Emiliana.

    • Thanks to both of you. Caracas Chronicles continues to provide the details (and the color commentary) like no one else can.

      • Really great post and thought provoking assessments. The jigsaw puzzle begins to take a form. Bien hechos y gracias!

  3. Today I had to read this post thru a page that allows access to blocked pages.
    I am not able to tell if this is a temporary technical problem or if the page have been blocked.

    • Maybe we have to brace ourselves for internet censorship… Would please tell us how you do thar? the page that allows you to access blocked pages?

  4. “And finally, a negative 857 points to the Venezuelan people, for if Diosdado gets his way and it’s true that he has, to quote Mario Silva, “all the power without being President,” we are about to enter a world of pain that no Cuban doctor can cure.”

    Keep in mind that Venezuela would have had at least minus 10000 points if the cubans factions wins. And thank god that MS got sacked, who is gonna miss him anyway. Only hardcore wannabe Fidel were listening to him.

    • Jett, you are absolutely right. The Diosdado faction, with all its faults, is at least nationalistic, and will only sell out in the short term to Cuban ideological lunacy for expediency’s sake. The Maduro/Cuban/Jaua course is setting Venezuela up for crash and burn….

      • I’d pick Diosdado over Maduro any day.
        Maduro means more cuban involvement, wich leads to perpetuation
        Diosdado is just another dictator made-in-venezuela wich wouldn’t last long in power.

        • Oh boy! That is the problem with the opposition and that is why we are were we are: the short term and the short sight.

          • Who do you think ordered the beating in the AN? Who watched over the beating without doing anything? Who removed the right of speech to the opposition deputies? Who decided that they could not be part of committees?

            This guy has the stuff of a serious dictator. I wouldn’t play with that.

            • I agree with you Bruni. I would take the idiot over the evil anytime. The idiot will fall eventually to his own making. Diosdado won’t.

              • Diosdado will fall, too, or will accomodate. The real risk is that Maduro/Cuba, with hunger as a backdrop, will actually be able to institute libreta food rationing (at least 50% of the population would probably like/vote for free food), and remain in power. There are still enough divisas for this. Meanwhile, the Government is on a full-court press to cut the wings of free speech (including Globo), form communes around cities and in rural areas, etc. etc.

            • The world is not black & white Bruni. Unless the opposition have a real power to investigate and prosecute the people mentioned in this audio, then we have nothing best to do that to choose the least of our problems. That is Diosdado controlling the cuban faction. Sorry if you tend to disagree.

              Maduro might be an illiterate moron, but he is not stupid, getting the presidency of the country it is a big deal, and behind him there is an entire ecosystem of thugs from right to extreme left, and their priority is the revolution and how they will rule the country forever. We shouldn’t underestimate Maduro, his loyalty is to Habana Cuba.

              • Once again, Jett, right on. It has nothing to do with WLAD’s “weakness for the cachucha”. It’s simply pragmatism–which is worse, a Communist-led needy ignorant Pueblo, subject to the direction of the economically/socially- failed Cuban state, or an endogenous military right with whom one can deal, at least in the short term if necessary, to try and re-establish sanity to the economy/society (which, if it means money, the endogenous military right will accept). Throughout Venezuela’s pre-Chavez democratic years, the Military has ALWAYS had to be bought off with a bozal de arepas to try to keep them from taking power.

              • “It’s simply pragmatism–which is worse, a Communist-led needy ignorant Pueblo, subject to the direction of the economically/socially- failed Cuban state, or an endogenous military right with whom one can deal”

                When did we decide that those were the only two options?

              • “When did we decide that those were the only two options?”

                Do you see any other outcome or solution to this? Is there a way to force the resignation of Maduro? Who controls the National Assembly, the Court, the Ombudsman etc etc.

                Capriles said “no way I’m resorting to violence in order to overthrow an illegitimate government”. So no coup d’etat, no rebellion, no violent protest, no Venezuelan Spring.

                So, in this situation, You have to play the hand you’re dealt.

              • “Do you see any other outcome or solution to this?”

                Yes

                “Is there a way to force the resignation of Maduro? ”

                Yes

                “Capriles said “no way I’m resorting to violence in order to overthrow an illegitimate government”.”

                The bastard!!! His comeflor superpowers must have all the large-testicles 350 folk tied to their chairs and keyboards.

                “no Venezuelan Spring.”

                I think you need to read up on Springs.

                El rancho con el altar a Pinochet está en la cabeza.

              • “El rancho con el altar a Pinochet está en la cabeza”

                LOL, then yours is with Allende? Oh I get it, I just want my wannabe Fidel in charge of the country, despise that I mercilessly oppose him for no reason!

                If you see the solution, do tell. And by all means please share with Capriles too. It will be interesting to know that there must be a way to convince Chavismo to go quietly without a fight.

                Where The Hell Have You Been in the last 14 years??? Why we need a Capriles when we have you? You know what I’d better stop here that was a rhetorical question.

              • “LOL, then yours is with Allende? ”

                The world is not black and white?

                ” And by all means please share with Capriles too.”

                It seems to me he already knows.

                ” It will be interesting to know that there must be a way to convince Chavismo to go quietly without a fight. ”

                I think we have different working definitions for “quietly” and for “fight”

                If you think a military dictatorship is the solution, then IMHO you don’t understand the problem.

              • Oh boy, you are just quoting and throwing cliche phrases all over the board. BTW You haven’t answered the question.

                How come in a blog about Venezuela, you bring Pinochet in this. These are very different circumstances here, and we are not talking about Chile.

              • “How come in a blog about Venezuela, you bring Pinochet in this. These are very different circumstances here, and we are not talking about Chile.”

                Fine, substitute Perez Jimenez if you find it less offensive. You posited that presently Venezuela can only choose from two military dictatorships (Castro or Cabello). I happen to disagree.

              • You happen to disagree, ok… so what? Castro is better? Then what choices do we have? That’s the part you haven’t answered yet.

                I think your disagreement might stem from your ideological stand point, from your bias against the military. Is funny that you chose Pinochet, and not Allende for example, which he was also a dictator in his time, which made me realize from which wood you are made of.

              • “You happen to disagree, ok… so what? Castro is better?”

                Are you really having reading comprehension problems? I’m starting to think you and GAC are the same person.

                “I think your disagreement might stem from your ideological stand point, from your bias against the military.”

                My bias is against dictatorships.

              • “Are you really having reading comprehension problems? I’m starting to think you and GAC are the same person”

                Ok now you are just insulting me… how dare you! Let’s keep this civilized shall we

                “My bias is against dictatorships”

                That’s good to know, but you still haven’t answered the question, what actions can be taken to avoid the two “dictatorships”…

      • “Jett, you are absolutely right. The Diosdado faction, with all its faults, is at least nationalistic”
        PEEQECE! Witness the stubborn weakness for the cachucha.

        • I agree with Bruni and Wlad here…
          Cachuchas are adangerous, specially for those of us who do not bear arms nor want to depend on them. Coups and civil wars have something very nasty in common: they are ultimately “won” by whoever controls the guns.
          And… if drug money is involved, no dictator is going to accommodate easily. I greatly fear there’s drug money involved on both factions (granted I do not have a shred of proof).

  5. I think Quico mentioned this once, but it really is fascinating how the Chavista media doesn’t report on things until they’ve decided on a way to spin them. For instance, the front-page article of Venezuelanalysis right now reads “Venezuelan Anti-Crime Program Records 55% Homicide Reduction” ( which is facepalm-worthy in and of itself, but I digress ).

    They must figure that blaming the Mossad out of nowhere wouldn’t play too well even with a sympathetic, “anti-imperialist” audience.

  6. For me, the most surprising thing is that the opposition conventional wisdom about the broad outline of the factional split in chavismo (Diosdado and the military vs. Maduro and the communist pro-Cubans) turns out to be pretty much right! I always suspected it was a stupid over-simplification, but no.

    The takeaway is that EVERYBODY AND THEIR SISTER now knows that the armistice between them is unstable. Powersharing between them is not tenable in the longer term.

  7. “There is no honor among thieves.” Chavistas have always felt that they were members of a trusting club where honesty prevailed among members but not in dealing with outsiders. Loyalty to the club was 100 percent. Lies started by one member could be trusted to have support from all members. Chavez was the enforcer; no one dared contradict or even challenge him.

    Now, that is all slowly disintegrating. Maduro may walk and quack like a Chavez but he does not have unquestioned loyalty. Nor does he show much leadership.

    Maduro knows he is an illegitimate weak president and he is facing challengers from within Chavismo. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. Expect fake butt-kissing among Chavistas to show that they are all behind Maduro. Underneath, nothing will change.

    The strongest route to a new election is an incapacitated Maduro. Cabello condones violence as a politically expedient tool. Maduro may see some of Cabellos tactics.

  8. Oh and in the patting-myself-on-the-back department, I want to note that I called this IN JULY 2011! As soon as Chávez made public his original cancer diagnosis all the way back then…

    http://caracaschronicles.com/2011/07/01/the-bottom-line-instability/

    Whether Chávez really is dying or whether he’s heading towards a long, debilitating treatment, it’s hard to see how he can play the role of Final Arbiter of Disputes that he’s held, unquestionably within his movement for so many years.

    But because the revolution’s formal institutionality is so shallowly grounded and devoid of authority independent from his, it’s hard to imagine them filling the breach.

    Chávez’s fills a unique role in the chavista state’s dispute settlement system. When Elías Jaua and Rafael Ramírez come to loggerheads over some matter of policy – or, more likely, over who gets to control a given slice of petrostate cake – they don’t go to court. They go to Miraflores.

    For the foreseeable future, they won’t be able to.

    How stable an arrangement do you think that is?

    • Francisco,
      You get bonus credit. I read your blog entries and unconsciously resummarize them.

  9. But I wonder: how could the purge of one of them function now? I mean, this is not the Soviet Union, where Stalin would have you “confess” you were a foreign agent and then be shot.
    This is the Isla del Caribe show. For me they are like conjoint twins now. They deny and deny they are different factions but the fact stays there…one of them cannot now just demote the other openly, there is no way.

  10. And should any sad-sack chavistas (are you reading this, Arturo?) doubt the veracity of the audio tape, here’s:
    HACKri Seldon ‏@HackriSeldon (RT E Gerbasi)
    vieron el capitulo final de La Hojilla? Mario un consejo: cambia el tono de tu celular, que sono ayer y es el mismo de la grabación brutooo

  11. We are witnessing a drama which outcome depends on how capable Maduro is at stemming the rot resulting from all those years of mad mismanagement , the constant black outs , the shortages , the run away inflation , the crumbling infrastructure , the ruin of the State’s finances , and most particularly the erosion in the regime’s popularity . If he fails at these daunting tasks , then his inside support will grow weaker and his rivals attacks more aggresive allowing for the possibility of a surprise change in leadership. Suspect that Jaua and A. Chavez are more doctrinaire and radical than Maduro . closer to the pristine totalitarianism of Castro. and that if Maduro goes then there will be a more visible direct struggle between Cutie eyes partisans and allies and the Jauja and A Chavez radicals . If the Opposition didnt exist as a force increasingly threatening their hold on power they would be at each other throats right now .!! Maduro is now the face of the regime , the guy holding Chavez torch , the annointed of the Eternal Leader so they all have to support him, but beneath it all there are agendas and ambitions that go beyond their support for Maduro.

    • It is my understanding that Maduro cannot leave office. Elections would need to be called and Capriles would win.
      A power sharing arrangement could be made to make someone else take charge of the day-to-day operations of the government.

      • If you had a hard core castroite coup led by jaua and fellow radicals they would claim that there is no need for real elections and just have make believe communal elections where only their people are on the ballot , that would place them in international pariah status vis a vis the rest of the world except for China and Cuba and Iran , even the alba allies would have a hard time justifying that sort of take over. If cutie eyes made a coup there is no longer room in the western world for traditional military take overs and he would need to find some grounds for legitimacy , be it the castro style legitimacy or democratic legitimacy, but the latter is beyond his reach . We know that he doesnt stand a chance in an open election , he is not the least bit popular outside the circle of high level chavistas. Most likely he would have to seek some kind of endorsement from the party bigwigs to have some else appear as the popular head of the regime and that would take quite a bit of political juggling. His best bet is to defeat his inside enemies and hold Maduro as some kind of puppet president while he wields the real power. The horizon is dark and difficult for Venezuela unless the whole regime implodes and we can have elections or somekind of institutional process whereby Capriles is elected!!.

  12. For a ‘true believer’, he didn’t put up much of a struggle. In fact, no struggle. Will they open up an investigation and lock him up, or will he get some sort of prize to continue being a quiet marxist revolutionary?

    Great post.

    • He’s fallen from grace. If this were the USSR, he would spend a year or so as a desk jockey, then would come the arrest, the show trial, and the swift execution.

      As it stands? I think Mario may already be in exile. His “motivos de salud” probably mean “I don’t want to be another Danilo Anderson”.

  13. Thanks guys. Great post. Has anyone heard how the meeting went with Televen and Venevision? Heard M mention it?

    • They promised to help Maduro in create a “violence-free enviroment”. What that really means? No more crime stories in the news? No more CSI or Hawaii Five-O on local TV?

      We’re about to find out in the next few days.

  14. With MS gone and the regime in blatantly transparent damage control, does anyone still think yesterday’s announcement was ‘over-hyped’?

  15. And, so, the expensive Chavismo” buque escuela goes on its merry way, while the Venezuelan population at large doesn’t even have toilet paper, eventually probably to be embargoed in some faraway foreign port for non-payment of a Venezuelan Government or PDVSA international debt….

  16. This recording does not help chavismo at all. It fuels the fire for internal dispute, it confuses and angers their own base whom call for justice and for their own ranks to be rid of the corrupt.

    Just look at powerfull chavistas speaking out in favor of Diosdado, while their base support Mario Silva. THAT tells you everything. Not only are they fighting for power, but there is a disconnect between the two factions and the chavista base that becomes deeper and deeper.

  17. the decision to throw mario silva was the right decision “por ahora”. whom you sacrifice, the mobster who has half the power in the state or the junkie “bocon”?

    • The problem with Mario Silva is that he truly believes in the socialist cause. He probably knows so many things and could seriously hurt the government, but will not be willing to share anything because he thinks it is for the greater good.

      • No mano, that’s a Manzana Vergataria phone.

        They would NEVER use Yankee Imperialist technology…..

  18. Emiliana, congratulations on your post. I really like having your feedback on the day to day events from you.

    I wonder now who do you think ordered the leak? I am quite curious about it.

      • You don’t air your own dirty laundry and Silva in deep shit IMO. For starters, assuming it’s the Cubans, he recorded it. Another no-no. Probably taken from his Internet connected home PC!

    • Thank you so much, Bruni, for your wonderful words.
      Your question, in my book, is the million dollar one, because it would pretty much determine who is behind this and therefore reveal MUCH about the schism in the post-Chávez regime.
      Regardless of WHO leaked it, I think the bigger question is, WHO KNEW about this leak. I myself, perhaps naively, think that Maduro was not aware of this before it happened, and that the Cubans (aka his direct superiors) were acting at the behest of Mario Silva´s pleas. I think they made a gamble, given how much is at stake for Cuba and maintaining relations with Venezuela, and hoped that this information was enough to bury Diosdado along with his military narco-enterpreneurial faction. If this was their objective, they clearly failed. But if this was the case, then I´m leaning towards thinking that it was the G2 themselves who leaked this video.
      Then again, if this were the case, then Maduro was unprepared to deal with this plan. I’m still ambivalent as to whether or not my impressions of the G2 as this badass, CIA-type espionage/power brokering unit are correct. If they’re as good as I THOUGHT they were, then this theory makes no sense. Nobody with THAT much to lose would throw themselves into such an adventure without having an exit strategy. If they in fact leaked the audio that incriminated Diosdado to such a degree, as a corrupt, narco/dealing, coup-plotting, anti Chávez villain, then they MUST have planned more than two steps ahead…Although perhaps it was a desperate attempt to cut down Diosdado, and it backfired. Either way, I’m most impressed by Maduro’s (lack of) handling of this crisis. He’s been quite silent about the whole debacle, even though it represents a direct affront to his authority… I know that UNITY is the standard-bearer for Chavismo right now, but Maduro needs to smoothly sail the thin line between making sure his base (this includes the military) is secure, and not showing any ruptures in leadership.
      I never thought I’d be saying this, but, I really hope the Cubans are giving Maduro good advice. I prefer a Cuban directed dogmatic buffoon over an unscrupulously villanous and coldhearted military officer.

      • Caught between Scylla and Charybdis…I have often wondered who is really better for Venezuela on a middle to long term.
        You mention it could be G2 itself. Maybe. But what about NSA/CIA? In fact, depending on Silva, this thing could have been carried out by your average hacker and the way I see Venezuelans dealing with their IT, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

        But I do find it extremely strange that this Cuban contact was speaking so little…I would imagine even a couple more “aha’s” for someone trained to let the agent talk and talk.

        Have you followed Silva’s twitter account?
        “Buenas Noches Compas, anuncio que motivado a tratamiento médico, me retiro hasta el día lunes. Espero salir al aire ese día.”
        Was he put in a trap by the Cubans? Or was it a Western organisation that did it?

  19. Another interesting bit: the casually sexist remarks about Cilia Flores. I think they sum up very well the “revolutionary” view that chavismo has on women.

  20. OK, the recording could be

    1) a leak by someone there, really
    or
    2) a conventional bug by someone else
    or
    3) SIGINT.

    What about this last item?
    The fact Mario Silva had a laptop or something there with which he could download stuff doesn’t mean things were supposed to be recorded at all.
    There are many ways to use SIGINT on a room not properly protected, someone could have activated the microphone of the laptop by taking over its control, etc

    • Yes, it shows he was taping it to the intelligentsia Cubana, he said, let me give ya a copy to the Cuban agent. Either they didn’t like what he said (because he inferred that Maduro wasn’t up to it) or Diosdado who is having the last laugh in here. Seems to me it has the Cuban mark… but who knows if Diosdado have their Cubans too, you know. I would if I were him.

    • Oh I understand you badly, it seems to me he was taping the conversation to the Cubans.

    • You don’t air your own dirty laundry and Silva in deep shit IMO. For starters, assuming it’s the Cubans, he recorded it. Another no-no. Probably taken from his Internet connected home PC!

      • IMHO Maduro is not even communist, Quico. I don’t think he has a defined ideology. He is just not up to the job and is trying to sustain himself with whatever can help…..

      • That seems a little simplistic. I agree that their appears to be some jostling for power, but I have yet to see a good analysis of where the disagreements between Maduro and Cabello are. It just seems a lot of: “Maduro is the Cuba man,” “Cabello is the military man,” etc.

        It would be good if there was a clear analysis of their departures.

  21. Question for Emiliana and readers, what do you guys think what he said about the CNE? He said something like ohhh I always defended the CNE now I am not that sure… is he implying that the CNE’s results can be modified, or that is too transparent they actually can loose elections?

    • Regarding Silva’s take on the CNE:
      1.- He talked about a mega hacker, a specific (but also mythical) person that he believes has the ability to manipulate the results. He thinks this hacker or someone else hacked and manipulated the 14A results in favor of Capriles to change the result from what he believes should have been 60% for Maduro to a Pyrrhic 51%. In that sense he wants the CNE to be audited.

      2.- In passing he mentioned Schemmel warning about a closing of the gap between the candidates. This seems to go against his belief that Maduro should have gotten at least 60% of the votes.

      3.- He also mentioned that Fidel didn’t understand why Chavez still allowed open elections. Silva said he considers those elections dangerous for the revolution because they could lose them.

      • Re #3: Fidel said similar things to Daniel Ortega about the 1990 election in Nicaragua. Ortega did not agree with Fidel; Danny Boy considered the election a slam dunk. Fidel turned out to be correct: Ortega lost to Violetta Chamorro by a resounding 54-40 margin.

      • This has ALWAYS been the case among Marxists or those who deem themselves Marxists. They do not believe in open elections. They believe in some crap called euphemistically “participatory democracy”, one that is not Swiss style but instead, one that is about non-secret voting or one in one way or the other completely controlled by the party at local level. In Cuba they have these elections all the time.

      • Oh okay I see it now, thanks Amieres. That’s what narcissistic personality disorder does to you, I guess Chavez had the Martha Stewart complex… but it worked for him… as well it does for Martha… mmm… now they needed a stronger CNE Chavista damage control I guess…. I am telling you I am still scratching my head when seeing platanote with the venezuelan presidential band… and the mujercita on the side… I think that mythical hacker might exist.

        • If we believe Silva he exists all right, and seems to be a mercenary that has done dealings with Diosdado but can conceivable be co-opted by anyone. This merits deeper investigation. Apparently there was an attack to the CNE on 14A yet officialy the government denies it happened, but the internet was down in Venezuela for at least on hour that day.

  22. I can stop thinking that if Maduro was a skilled and smart politician, he could use this opportunity to raise his very damaged reputation of being a manipulable idiot by opening an investigation about this, specially against Cabello and his brother, Rangel and others. Cilia should fire her assistant. Nobody likes thieves and I’m quite sure this will bring back a lot of popular support.
    But again, he’s not. He’s a manipulable idiot.

  23. Do hardcore Chavistas truly believe you can edit sound bytes and create a 50 minute conversation? How gullible can they be…..?

    • It been longed recognized by modern psychology that people will easily believe what they want to believe ( even if not very credible ) and readily disbelieve ( despite evidence to the contrary) what they find discomfiting or humiliating . There is nothing like fanaticism to make think stupidly or as Borges would have it “«las dictaduras fomentan la opresión, las dictaduras fomentan el servilismo, las dictaduras fomentan la crueldad; más abominable es el hecho de que fomenten la idiotez».

    • Differences in intonation, inflexions and sound qualities between two or more recordings prove to be too subtle an art for them. Zionist conspiracy gladly relieves them of the need to think for themselves.

  24. Or, another interpretation is la hojilla was a cuban g2 tool to round up the court of chavista opinion. But mario silva’s tirade shows the cubans don’t care about that anymore and are.prepared to play their card to weaken god given. The rest has yet to unfold.

  25. In a perfect world, there is a lone tech guru opositor(a) with the surname Salander who hacks into the upper echelons’ computers, slowly compiling their dirtiest secrets to lay them bare while they scramble and point fingers amongst themselves to find out who’s the rat.

    • Not that hard to imagine, it shouldn’t be that hard to get into one of those guy’s computer. Must be filled with all kinds of gay porn back doors viruses :P

  26. The simple answer might be some second level Chav envious of Silva who Silva squished, who is also close to G2. A personal vendetta against Silva.

  27. So La Hojilla is back on Monday, but MS loses some radio program I’ve never heard of?

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