The Worst Case Scenario: We’ve Become Florida

The electronic version of this...

The electronic version of this…

This is the single worst thing that could’ve happened: CNE has announced Maduro won the election by 7.51 million votes to 7.27 million for Capriles, but the opposition may well be sitting on clear evidence that this is not true. What comes next is a deep governability crisis.

Henrique Capriles’s job now is to avoid becoming a López Obrador figure.

The silver lining is that the problem now is one of evidence, not rhetoric. CNE will have to release its detailed central tally. If that tally doesn’t match the machine-by-machine and/or the paper ballot handcount tallies (the actas de auditoría), that’ll be basically impossible to hide.

Triple congruence is the strength of the CNE system. If there’s a breakdown in it, we’ll be able to tell.

Here’s a little refresher course on why:

triplecongruence-0012

triplecongruence-002

triplecongruence-003

triplecongruence-004

triplecongruence-005

 

The point: all three sets of tallies are public. If they don’t match, everyone will be able to see they don’t match. It may be that they don’t care that they don’t match, but they won’t be able to hide it if they don’t match.

218 thoughts on “The Worst Case Scenario: We’ve Become Florida

  1. Maduro now talking as if he won handily–he’s too stupid to understand what’s coming–he’d have been better-off losing (which is what he really did, anyway).

    • Agreed. This is a terrible thing for the stability of Venezuela, but it’s worse for Maduro and therefore Chavismo. He now has no mandate for radical surgery, but such surgery will happen one way or another. He’s made myriad promises he cannot possibly keep, let alone those Chavez made. His entire candidacy is built on a lie and illusion, and he can’t weasel out of Chavez’s debt payments to Cuba, Russia and China like Capriles could have. He will be torn apart by both the opposition and Chavista rank and file. He’s a blithering idiot for celebrating this victory.

      Sadly, Fancisco Toro is right, this is (in the short term) the worst thing that could happen to Venezuela. The only way Maduro will be able to keep a lid on things is outright violence and fascism. I hope I’m wrong!

      I know one thing, Russian arms dealers are celebrating tonight.

      • “I know one thing, Russian arms dealers are celebrating tonight.”

        For research reasons, could you give me the exact numbers on how much the Venezuelan Government has spent in arms during the Chavez era? Russia, Belarus, China, etc…

        Thank you!

        • Sorry, I wish I had that figure, the majority are from Russia though. It’s at least over $10 billion since 2005 from Russia alone, and most of it went to expensive pieces of equipment as would be used in a battle for aerial and ground domination (not asymmetrical warfare). Unlike say, Colombia, which purchases helicopters to control the borders and armored troop carries which are actually used in FARC areas.

          Colombia is now considering its first purchase of tanks, specifically to counter Venezuela’s large fleet of Russian tanks which so far just sit around or go on military parade.

          • Forgot to add: gathering rust in military warehouses. Like many of our AKA 47.

            I wonder where could I find those figures,,, I want to write my dissertation on the Historoy of Sino-Venezuelan relations during the Chavez era. The figures from Russia would mark a interesting point of comparison…

            • Do you know if Venezuela ever did anything with that expensive license to manufacture AK47s? Haven’t heard anything about that for awhile. Was it total vaporware, was some manufacturing plant actually set up?

              • My friend in the military tells me that nothing is happening. No factories, nothing. Nevertheless I can not provide any substantial information beyond the scope of hearsay, so do not take my word for it.

              • The only thing they’re really working on is a gunpowder plant with the Iranians. First hand info.

        • Rocío Sanmiguel head of Control Ciudadano para la Seguridad, la Defensa y la Fuerza Armada Nacional ONG puts total arms expenditure above 16 billion US dollars.

      • I disagree. The big ticket weapons systems: Navantia warships and Sukhoi Flankers. They got fleeced on both. Maduro will not be dropping dime on big weapon systems..too risky for all sides involved.

  2. And Maduro was a terrible candidate… I think those 7.5 million votes were more anti-opposition than pro-Maduro.

    • you even admit the serious flaws in your ranks, and litle by litle we are peeling off what is left from chavismo, soon or later more people will join the opposition. Now Capriles has a solid 7.5 milliom people that believes in him.

  3. Am I being obtuse in my slight relief?

    – The opposition won’t be dealing with the mess Chavez left behind. His heirs will. The blame will be all theirs.
    – Chavismo deflated utterly, from a 20+-point lead to less than 1 over the course of a month.
    – The opposition can now, with all honesty, claim to represent half the country.
    – Without Chavez, the “revolution” is just another government with no mandate.

    Next to an overwhelming Capriles victory, this is the best we could have hoped for, provided Capriles doesn’t become AMLO.

    • Mr. Toro apologizing? Really? I’ll become a New Born Protestant Christian if he ever does…

  4. Maybe the best thing. Let the Chavistas inherit what they’ve created…como siempre me dijo mi abuela, “cosechas lo que siembras.”

  5. This guy is a f***king idiot. I can’t believe he is running a country. Did he even graduate high school? At least he has to deal with the mess but still. If you are in Vzla get out while you still can. Colombia is 100 times better anyways. At least you can find basic necessities like toilet paper, sugar, oil, and chicken. I feel sorry for anyone stuck there. I know I am not going back anytime soon.

    • No he only have Ciclo Basico (junior High) I culd give you the link and you could see that even in his union work , his health related absence were epic!

    • Schoolmate Eduardo Semtei claims he finished bachillerato, but when NMM presided the National Assembly, I seem to recall that his “graduation” somehow did not make it into his resumé.

  6. I don’t think Capriles can make up 230k votes, so he won’t invoke the actas de auditoría, even if he did, he knows that the counting process wouldn’t be allowed. The CNE hasn’t allowed a public audit of the system since 2005. Just ask Alek Boyd about this.

  7. I think Jau has a point. I don’t see Maduro hanging on for 6 years. It might not be a coup, but I could see him being pressured to resign.

      • “Easy”…really? Do you think Maduro & Tibi Co. are idiots? There are a number of ways they could get away with this…starting with the cara’e tabla strategy.

      • ok and what about Vicente Diaz Intervention? the thing saying that he “supports “a 100% counting of every box? or ballot or whatever? well nobody listens to him anyways

      • A very interesting first step is not only the counting of 100% ballot box content, but that all parties have agreed it is necessary. We have to wait now and see if this recount can really be carried out and afterwards whether or not it will have any effect on anything. Remember this is Venezuela and anything can happen!

        • At this stage in the game we all know that ballot box contents, placed in the hands of the military for supposed “safekeeping”, have been seriously compromised or damaged throughout all of Venezuela, making the 100% tally an exercise in futility. All the fake smiles and supposed agreement on the part of the election commission ended this afternoon with the proclamation of Nicolás Maduro.

  8. By the way, Quico, I think that this is the second-worst case scenario. The worst case scenario would have been for Capriles to win by fewer than 300,000 votes. Because there’s no way many chavistas would have peacefully admitted their defeat. There would have been bloodshed.

  9. NO matter what, Maduro has to aknowledge that 7+ million voted AGAINST him and are unhappy with the state of the country. This isn’t a victory for him. Just 7 million people who felt bad about Chavez’s death and were manipulated into voting for this buffoon. Cuba has won, not Venezuela. He’s going to continue giving free goodies to Cuba, instead of focusing on the needs of his own people. 20% inflation (highest in region), mass food shortages (not even staple foods) and rising crime (2000 deaths in first month of 2013) and five devaluations in nine years! This is a joke. Fuck Maduro, bird seeing, non-high school graduating, Cuban stooge.

  10. Why does Maduro keep holding up the constitution when he completely ignores it?
    I gave up counting the number of times Maduro said “Chavez” after 14 times.

    Now Chavistas get another 6 years to trash Venezuela.

      • Now. If you want to call that a speech. This guy makes even rhetoric regarding the imperialist tendencies of the nematode c. elegans seem moderately exciting by comparison.

        If I hear one more permutation of respect for results…

  11. Am I the only one who thinks that this empty track suit is talking for this long precisely to delay Capriles from making his announcement?

    • Capriles is going to make his announcement regardless, the question is whether state TV will show his announcement and whether he will claim fraud or just let it go.

  12. I think it’s important to note that Maduro, with these results, has become a lame duck, even within his own Party. His personal future is bleak….

    • Yes, but as I’ve mentioned previously, I think that was exactly what was intended from the beginning.

  13. I hope Capriles does not go the Lopez Obrador route, which Goicochea and others are recommending. He will loose plenty of political capital he has just won.

    Now we need to work to win la asamblea.

    Maduro becomes a transitional president.

    • Don’t insult the poor Calimero. That comparison is an injustice! An injustice it is!

  14. How embarassing watching this clown talk? I can’t wait to see the difference between this garbage and Caprile’s speech. A lot of people who voted for him will be regretting that decision today and not tomorrow. Tomorrow, this guy will be looking for a country that is willing to let him live there when his own people kidk him out of Venezuela.

  15. I, and many of us, thought that we would miss Chavez for his comic relief, but, as of tonight, we have the Incredible Maduro Inflatable Track Suit Buffoon.

  16. Seems to me chavismo is mortally wounded with this pyrrhic victory and that the opposition is well positioned to win parlamentary seats? Would that be next? (I am from Puerto Rico).

    • Hard to win a majority of seats in the parlament with all the gerrymandering, the opposition in fact had a majority of the popular vote in the last parliamentary elections, but was heavily misrepresented regardless. There’s the possibility of a recall referendum against Maduro in 3 years from now, or maybe even asking for a Constituent Assembly.

    • Given the egregious gerrymandering/Hugomandering in Venezuela, a legislative victory will be difficult. In Daniel’s Blog I wrote an comment about gerrymandering/Hugomandering in Carabobo and Miranda states. Here is a quote from my comment;
      Registered voters/Assembly seat
      Broken down by victors in Circuitos/Circunscripciones/voting districts, not for statewide winners.

      Miranda
      Oppo 255,104
      Chavista 170,144

      Carabobo
      Oppo 267,524
      Chavista 179,382

      That is how you get 64% of the Assembly seats with only 48% of the vote. All votes are equal, but some votes are more equal than others.
      The data for registered voters is from 2010. While the numbers will be different today, the pattern remains the same.

  17. There is not doubt in my mind that Nicky is the beginning of the end of Chavismo. Now we just have to stay in their faces! They will start folding as things get worse. Could be a referedum in the future. The parliamentary elections should be a cake walk!

  18. In many ways I think this is the best scenario for the country. It would have been very difficult for Capriles to govern Venezuela at this juncture. The opposition continues its steady growth pattern and if we continue el camino we will be able to win la asamblea in 2015 paving the way for an opposition victory in six.

    Maduro becomes a transitional president.

    • yeah in 2015 we will win the assembly and then in 2019 we will lose again but only to win in 2179.

    • ¿La gata en la batea? ¡No! ¡La batea estará llena de Flores! ¡Pobre Nico! ¡Ahora tendrá que casarse con la vieja!

  19. He isn’t and he shouldn’t.
    Think of all the guajiros,colombians and cubans that voted here.Think of all the people that voted with 12 cedulas.

  20. How many null votes where there ?

    Capriles seems to be saying that the number of null votes is grater than the difference in votes.

  21. I love it. The results are close enough that the fight will be worth it. Support will continue to fall for Maduro based on the crap he is going to be spitting out during the next few days!

  22. Globvision must be working for Maduro now….. No way did Maduro get more votes than Chavez did. Something isn’t right.

      • Don’t forget: AMLO got about 35% of the vote. That means 65% of Mexicans did NOT vote for him.

        Capriles has the backing of half the country, and with Maduro quickly deflating, cuidao y si no mas. VERY different situation.

        • I think you got the figures wrong on the Mexican vote (I think it was more like 1 or 2% difference but I was supporting AMLO so maybe I was suffering some sort of hallucination), but other than that, we agree. This is not over. This is different.

  23. I truly hope that Capriles can keep the MUD together without going down a AMLO path in the short term. It is true, even if the result stands, Maduro is a lame duck president and will manage the collapse of the country. However, it is just as likely that Capriles will become some form of lame duck within his party as well. Honestly, I think Diosdado Cabello is thrilled right now and possible planning to take over after Maduro blows up the economy.

    I truly hope I’m wrong and that Capriles can manage this transition deftly until he becomes the next President of Venezuela. The man absolutely deserves it.

  24. Quico…la “triple congruencia” se la pueden pasar por el forro de los cojones cuándo y cómo les de la gana! Tienen todo el poder para hacerlo.

    • No, I think Capriles proved me wrong with his strong (some would say victorious) showing tonight.

    • Look…. we knew all along that the CNE might cheat. So… that’s not a surprise. Still, the economy is dependent on importing basic goods while there is insufficient foreign reserves. Unless, there are opportunities to borrow more money, the Revolution is going to look bad. If the oppo makes trouble, they are likely to be blamed for the economy and the shortages. That might be the plan.

      Meanwhile, CUBA get’s its steady shipments of petroleo. They are the winners. At some point, the military will have to do something. Capriles is the logical option vs Cabello.

      I’m going to see what happens to the Dolar Parelelo tomorrow. That’s going to be an important indicator of what to expect next.

      • With this situation, borrowing money will be even more difficult, and, at the least, very very costly. The economic s____ which we have seen so far is nothing like what’s about to hit the fan….

  25. What a night. A few scattered thoughts:
    a) Maduro was winning by twenty points a couple of weeks ago. Chávez’s funeral was barely five weeks ago. He is deflating right before our eyes.
    b) Capriles is absolutely right in demanding a re-count. Rural centers where the opposition may not have had witnesses, and where the same guy simply voted and voted and voted, are going to be key. I hate that it’s come to this, but it has.
    c) Capriles increasing his vote tally from October is simply astonishing. I firmly believe, given the numbers we were getting all evening long, that late-closing voting centers is where Maduro made up the difference.
    d) Even if we can’t prove fraud, Maduro won’t last. Let’s see him start implementing measures.
    e) I can’t believe the drama that is Venezuela is going to continue!

    • Juan, completely agree on all counts.

      My question is: what comes after Maduro implements unpopular measures? I hope, but I’m not necessarily sure, Capriles is next.

      However, I think the MUD needs to start developing a strategy for Diosdado and company’s uprising.

      Thoughts?

    • You forgot to add that it’s possible that Capriles has ~95k votes from the exterior (and that may count more than Quico thought in his recent rant).

      • Mmmm… I some how do not trust those votes. As they are processed by had, maybe they can be tampered with?

        There are no machines outside of Venezuela…

        • But they’ve emphasised how all of those who live abroad are vende patria and so on and so forth

        • Well my estimate is based on October 2012 results, but of course we don’t know if they would apply cara ‘e tabla to change all those votes radically.

      • The next CC book can be “Maduro: No really, Venezuela actually elected this goon”.

    • “I can’t believe the drama that is Venezuela is going to continue!”

      Juan, it was always going to. As long as the country is this divided, we will have “drama”.

    • Juan, it’s highly probable that Capriles lost due to rural ballot box stuffing. On O7 I bought into the LL-promised 100% Oppo voting station witnessing, and, was astonished/chagrined recently, when some Oppo leader mentioned on TV in passing that they had programmed only 45% witnessing, but actually had achieved only half that figure.

        • The article makes all the math before pointing out that the tables are selected after printing the actas (which he mentions later). If they change anything, there is a 54% chance that it will noticed, and indeed that has not happened. If that happened in this election, the MUD should have at least some actas that reflect it.

  26. Ok, I have a couple of questions. Did the 54% sample showed a relationship different than the one the CNE presented?
    How many null votes?
    Capriles does not accept the results, now what? how is every box going to be open?

  27. That was not a mistake. They had to participate because there was no smoking gun to use to invalidate the system. However, I think they would be making a big mistake if they didn’t fight like hell right now to delegitimize this election based on all of the abuses the CNE allowed. To accept this government would kiss the country goodbye.

    Jorge Rodriguez is on Channel 8, ranting and raving and contradicting himself. Luckily he was still around and Maduro was able to get him to speak for him. If not, Maduro would have embarassed himself even further tonight!

  28. We’ll see how this goes for Capriles, unfortunately I think it can get ugly. If it comes to it tell him he can have my currently empty room in Bogotá, my mom is a great cook and my dad is a really funny guy.

    • It is probably better than the cell next to Baduel’s.

      Of course, spending some time in jail adds to a resistance leader’s resume, but Capriles has already “been there, done that.”

  29. Barrientos is on his own rant now, although I think he is being prompted. He tries to deliver his message like Chavez used to but doesn’t stand a chance of getting the average person to look up from their coffee. The military clowns on stage with him were only thinking about how they need to work hard to steal as much as possible before the government falls and they are punted.

  30. Where are the “three sets of results” stored? Obviously the CNE result can be made up randomly. But the other two, who is going to hold them, and will there be a chain of evidence for those results?

  31. FRAAAAAAAUDEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AQUÍ LA GENTE TIENE QUE ENCENDERSE Y DEFENDER… SE ACABÓ EL DESCARO SEÑORES, O SALEN A DEFENDER O NOS JODEMOS, ASÍ DE SIMPLE (you can traduce this if you don’t understand, I don’t know how to write in english perfectly SORRY)

    • Alicia,

      If I may offer translation?:

      “Fraud!!!!! The people have to get motivated and defend themselves… Stop feeling sorry for yourselves and go out and defend yourselves or we are screwed. It’s that simple.”

  32. Quico, what about people removing unopened boxes from electoral center? We have several people denouncing that

    • I saw a video of one of those alleged incidents, too. I think it’ll be impossible to prove fraud if the fraudulent centers are ransacked. All they’ll be able to prove is that the triple congruence isn’t meetable, not that there was fraud.

      • That would be great for us. If we can’t audit, Maduro will never be able to shake the shadow of doubt off of him. It will also prove irregularities existed.

    • “These results require deep self-criticism,” said Diosdado Cabello, the powerful head of the National Assembly whom many Venezuelans see as a potential rival to Maduro.

      “It’s contradictory that some among the poor vote for those who always exploit them,” Cabello added on Twitter. “Let’s turn over every stone to find out faults but not put the fatherland or the legacy of our commander (Chavez) in danger.”

      • Diosdado just began his campaign. This is what worries me the most.

        It’s quite feasible that the turmoil after this election effectively burns both Maduro (already a given) and Capriles (if he goes AMLO-style). This could lead to the implosion of the MUD and the Maduro camp and leave the door open for Diosdado.

        Capriles needs to make sure he doesn’t burn too much political capital now and that he keeps the reins on the MUD. Otherwise, I think the opposition faces the same issues with colliding factions as chavismo does. It would also be smart to start pushing a consisten message linking the failures of chavismo to Diosdado, Ramirez, Jaua, Arias Cardenas, etc., and not just Maduro.

        Maduro is not the future of chavismo. They know this.

  33. I am really happy we got sooo close. I am sad fraud probably occurred. After crying wolf so many times in previous elections, I hope people listen to us this time…let’s pick the right natural allies this time internationally…

    Capriles showed he was a man tonight by fighting and not giving in. We need to now fight with him…shoulder to shoulder…freedom is not free. You need to be willing to give your entire self for it, otherwise people will take it away fro tou, just like that…

  34. Sorry for bursting your bubble but remember that Chavistas now control 80% of all broadcasting media. There are NO critic TV stations and the press can will have to take even more political and financial pressure by means of the dollars for paper. Democratic oppo won’t have any major media for campaining in the future… And forget about internet BTW, it doesn’ climb the barrios steps yet and will surely be restricted in the mid-term.
    What we should expect now on is an even more evident Cuban control on government decisions and probably the appeareance of an official opposition (possibly headed by Diosdado) approved by the Cubans (a la Iranian Council of Experts) to maintain the democratic façade. Democrats reduced to a symbolic presence in some local governments and the National Assembly (best scenario).

    • And in such scenario, Capriles managed to overcome the 20% difference of the last month. For the sake of Venezuela the guy should not let that go. The time to fight for our rights is now.

  35. Bring it on! This could be extremely interesting. Of course, if we think anything positive is going to happen quickly, better think again.

    I’m on the road, but I brought a little Santa Teresa 1796 with me….just in case.

  36. When telenovela becomes reality and viceversa. I was counting to end this one (win or lose) on Monday, but as good venezuelans everything is left for the next episode. I second this is the second best scenario a 10% loss would have been demoralizing though I had 6 cases of Pampero ready.

  37. Maybe I got Maduros speech wrong but on the subject of the vote recounting he shifted positions three times , first : the law requires 54% of the boxes recount , we are not afraid, we will do that recount to show we really won, second : you cant have a recount that takes a long time and meanwhile the country is hanging on a thread , third : we will accept the rectors demand that the recount include 100% of boxes , we are not afraid of a recount , we will demonstrate to the world we really won . These three shifts in less than half an hour reveal a great deal of insecurity and muddled thinking . He spent a lot of time justifying why a 1% lead was still a victory , showing he knew that it really wasnt the kind of victory which is really convincing to chavistas self image who always boast about winning with great margins , again by offering a ‘el que se excusa se acusa’ type of discourse he was showing insecurtiy. The more vociferously he rants the greater the fear inside that they’ve lost their leaders magic touch to capture the support of ‘the people’ . He now has to succesfully face really some big challenges in order to remain a credible leader which he cant do by strictly adhering to the typical chavista agenda , oil production and f currency revenues are slipping hard with mounting inflation making it harder and harder to maintain the level of expenditures and gift giving that have characterized the regime and are the cornerstone of its popularity home and abroad . He will have to compromise to get some f investment to help with the unfolding crisis in Pdvsa and with local private production to keep the domestic market supplied which means betraying the revolution.!! Cutieyes call for self criticism might really be interpreted a first salvo of fire against Maduro , meantime an eroding popularity is not going to improve his hold on power . Last nights results were not a strong endorsement of Maduro , rather the opposite . He talks tough but you can hear his heart’s pounding in fear .

    • May suggest you don’t even try to understand him? Absolutely incoherent! He’s terrified. First of all they know they lost. all the numbers of HCR’s camp plus other surveys give even 9 points to HCR. Did you see their “triumpant” faces last night? Specially with godgiven latiéndole en la cueva. Diosdado said last night “they were going to look even under the stones to understand why the poor and downtrodden had voted for their exploitators” (can almost think cort wrote that line).
      So he know’s he’s not legit and he knows the majority did NOT vote for him. It wasn’t a winner ‘s speech. Está alli pegado con saliva de loro. Y de Molero, Barrientos y Jorge Rodriguez

  38. One thing that bothers me is that I hear two scenarios coming from the Capriles camp 1) we won, they changed the numbers and 2) we don’t know, so let’s open the boxes. Now these two things are very different, and seriously hope they can get their message together. Going to the CNE website won’t help – down since late last night.

    • Nemo i never heard they don’t know. HCR was very clear…between the votes they have with percentages by state,+ the 300.000 they count as missing or destroyed by monkey business + the internatinal voting numbers ( of the arrogant self agrandizing ego boosting expats that travel far to vote- quico dixit) they KNOW they won. Nada que ver con AMLO

  39. Un triunfo ilegal
    TALCUAL Capriles no reconoce la victoria de Maduro hasta que no se haga un recuento de cada voto. El observador internacional en las elecciones, Agustín Díaz de Mera, asegura que los comicios no se ajustaron a los “estándares internacionales democráticos”

  40. I find it a shame that a big part of the discussion shifted into the 100% ballots recount (at least the early morning facebook/twitter discussion, plus Vicente Diaz). I don’t have the actas to support my perception, but even from hearing Capriles it seems that the bast majority of the “fraud” was on accompanied vote, use of state resources for mobilizations, multiple ID’s, ballot-stuffing in places without witnesses, stilling electoral boxes, etc. None of those will appear by re-counting the ballots, and the only thing we will do is validate the result: “you wanted to count the votes? here you are, same/similar result, case closed”. Even if they decide not to count 100% (giving the opposition an easier chance to call fraud), you end up harming the wrong part of the electoral system, making people lose confidence for the next elections: “there is no point if they ONLY check 54% of the boxes”, like if 54% was a tiny number. I’m not expert on statistics, but I understand that a 54% check the way is designed (chose the tables after printing the minutes) gives a very small error margin. Maybe someone can clarify if that margin is still bigger than the current difference?

    Of course, if the actas or the current public audits show something different than what was published by the CNE (so if they are sure there will be no triple congruence, and that the ballot boxes are well taken care off in the meantime, and the audit process can be ran cleanly), then they do have a strong case on going 100%.

    • HCR’s camp is accounting for all that monkey business, as being aprox 300.000 votes give or take. And even so he wins.

  41. Any final numbers on turnout?

    I’m seeing it reported as 74.7% (Wikipedia) or 78% (CBC), but those numbers are impossible to reconcile with the votes cast – 14,814,497 in 2013 and 14,872,739 in 2012 (i.e. this election’s tally is 99.6% of last fall’s) – barring a huge increase in registered voters in six months.

    • There is no “huge increase in voters” since the same voter list for the Oct. 7th vote was the valid one for this one.

      No new voters could be added to the rolls, no one could change where they voted, etc.

      • That’s what I thought – if not the exact same voter roll, it would be essentially the same.

        If that’s the case, then the vote tally really doesn’t reflect this supposed drop in turnout from 80% to 78%.

        If 80% turnout gets you 14,872,739 valid votes, then 78% turnout should get you closer to 14,500,000 votes – 300,000+ less than the 14,814,497 counted. However, I haven’t seen the invalid votes (which numbered 287,550 last year) reported anywhere yet.

      • And final numbers are still not in, there are the overseas votes plus some strays hither and yon.

        There is word that at military schools and posts folks who were not on the October 7th voter rolls got to vote anyways. Another sterling example of the “cleanliness” of our “perfect voting system”

  42. i think chavez wanted his son in law to be president to keep it in the family, but to name him as successor was to obvious. He names him as the vice, in a short time the government camp will declare maduro incompetent and the vice will be come president. chavez’s son in law to keep the story going

  43. Quite on the contrary, I think this was actually the best case scenario. Obviously a government of thugs lead by the Castros is not going to hand down power just like that. They will always find the way to massage the numbers. In fact, the CSB had to be prepared for a scenario like this.

    Even if it seems contradictory, this results leaves Maduro very weak and Capriles very strong. I think Capriles should go to the very end and deslegitimize the government as much as he can both inside and outside Venezuela. This, coupled with the looming and unavoidable economic crisis, and growing food and product shortages will accelerate the robolucion’s downfall IMO.

    • Yes, you ARE right it will but… It doesn’t take away from the frustration, rage, impotence, sadness etcetc at the horror of confronting ourselves after seeing it in our faces for si many years, what our other half is willing to do to sell our country to the cubans. It’s like finding out your husband or wife or partner is — xyz you fill in the blanks.

      • Yes of course, it is an outrage how they call the opposition vendepatrias while they proudly wave another country’s flags at maduro’s rallies. But you have to consider that aside from the votes that were cast because of fear (misiones, public employees), voto asistido, etc, several people have been successfully brainwashed by chavez and the powerful government’s mass media machine, and yesterday they went ahead and voted for him once again.

        This is the country that we have. I think the end is nearer that we suspect. We’ll see…

  44. On the (David Remus well-said “Second Worst-Case Scenario”): The Chavismo ship is sinking fast, and Maduro is the perfect Captain to complete the job; and, we don’t have to worry about the “Peronization” of Chavez–the Venezuelans have proven once again that: their memories are short, they live the here-and-now, and that (presumably) that difficult here-and-now is really what’s most important to them….

  45. in Venezuela everyone knows it was fraud…. they are working hard in destroying evidence as I write… Venezuelas goverment belongs to criminals…. these are not venezuelan people…. can anyone suggest a course of action??? international involvement??? anyone?? wow right nobody cares anymore… forgot

  46. Capriles will get around 80,000 votes from the foreign vote. If we extrapolate results obtained in Canada, we had 96.5% votes fo Capriles, 3.2% for PSUV and a 84.6% participation. If we have 100k registered abroad, then Capriles should get 81,600 votes (roughly 80,00) and PSUV 2,700 votes. The margin will shrink

  47. Quico, what if fraud was made with multi-cedulados? How would you detect that with the “perfect CNE system”?

    • I say this because they caught a guy with 40 cedulas yesterday. It was a day with no operacion morrocoy in which people could vote very quickly. A person would have actually had time to vote 40 times. With less than 7,000 of those you would get more than 230,000

    • That’s a bit what I was saying up some comments: 100% counting (or 54% for that matter) & triple congruence, fail to detect all the multi-cedulados, asistidos, chinos/cubanos/colobianos, etc. So, even though the verification is important and could show a tampering on the machines if that happened, right now it looks more like a distraction from the real fraudulent actions, and carries the risk of validating an otherwise very-fraudulent process (in everything BUT the machines tally).

      • The train has already left the station on that one. Our multiple calls of fraud is why people are skeptical this time (and no one is paying attention to the manipulation)…

        That said, if votes have disappeared, this is our one chance to get international sympathy… Obama won’t make the first move because he is laissez faire on everything, so we need someone else…Maybe someone like Rubio would take up the cause with his Cuban ancestry…

      • Yes, this is where I think they are very slick. Aside fromm all that you said, I think at the last minute they start filling-in votes from people that did not vote in rural states: all going for Maduro. I think that is why you see people destroying ballot boxes in Barians today. They know they don’t have all the votes they say they have there, making the difference in favor of Maduro greater than what it should be in that place.

        If they generated about 15,000 votes in the states that maduro won, and more specifically in areas that are traditionally chavistas and there is little to no oppsotion precense, that accounts for the difference. With about 500 multicedulados, I think they can easily generate 20,000 votes per state, especially with how quickly the process was.

  48. It’s absolutely incredible that the margin is so small. What are the chances that in a direct election involving 14M votes the difference in votes between the two parties should be less than 2%. Nuts!!!!!

  49. I don’t see this situation quite like Florida’s. In Florida, it was a request for recount due to the close call, so they wanted to make sure things were done right. Here, it is an accusation of lying based on differences in actas, so the request for the recount is to prove that the accusation is true.

    • I agree, my gut tells me the result in Venezuela is thoroughly tainted. There is though something underlying that boggles the mind, the fact that the country really is polarized 50:50!!! That is simply stunning!* The result in the USA in 2000 was equally stunning and undoubtedly helped polarize that country even further.

      *The results have been creeping progressively toward this point and is an indication that Maduro and co are running out of steam (and moola), a political tipping point. Question is, why didn’t it just go over, was it careful calculation on the part of the chavista electoral program or shear luck?

  50. Sorry I posted this in the wrong thread:

    I am sure that the CNE is not prepared to fetch a significant % of the ballot boxes, much less 100%. There is probably no records of where they are kept, to which voting center they belong, etc. since they normally would be probably kept for several weeks and then be icinerated (Somebody with more knowledge please confirm or deny).

    What happens if we can only audit 75% of the votes, and cannot audit he other 25% , specially with a victory margin of only 1.something % ? Would we have to repeat the elections in those places were there are no ballot boxes available for audit ?

    Another issue, the 230.00+differnece will narrow probably by 55.000 to 65.000 votes when the votes outside Venezuela are counted. I got these figures from @puzkas (100,000 registered voters, 55% to 65% voting)

  51. I’m not sure exactly why but this weblog is loading extremely slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end? I’ll check back later and see
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