Things I know

Happier times

Happier times

The next few days are full of uncertainty, but there are a few things I know.

1. Whatever we do, however much we restrain ourselves, as much as we show respect for the passing of the President, chavistas will cut and paste the few signs of happiness (I’m looking at you, Plaza Altamira) and play them over and over again, saying the opposition is happy, dancing in the street.

2. The funeral will be massive. Presidents will fly in from all over – Belarus, Iran, all over Latin America. There will be celebrities galore – Sean Penn, Danny Glover, etc. The military will be in full regalia. It will be an apotheosis like nothing we have ever seen.

3. The election will be called, and it will be held sooner than we think.

4. The country’s economy will not collapse in the meantime. We will go into the election facing very similar conditions to the ones we faced in October. The fiscal spigot still has life in it.

5. The Chávez girls will begin playing a larger role in public life, a la Sonia Gandhi.

36 thoughts on “Things I know

      • Menudo comentario.
        ‘Dialogue’, llaman los venezolanos al colaboracionismo.
        Por activa o por pasiva.
        Claro que si fuera de otra manera, si Venezuela tuviera unas élites menos rastreras y unos políticos menos comemierdas, este país sería, al menos, la Francia de De Gaulle.
        Feliz año a todos, boliburgueses y rancia burguesía de siempre, que ya están contando sus ganancias en dólares.

  1. >>> ..(I’m looking at you, Plaza Altamira) … you could blame the Moiras.

    here’s a bit of serendipity – la idea de tres Moiras (Parcas), Cloto, Láquesis y Átropo que, para cada mortal, regulaban la duración de la vida desde el nacimiento hasta la muerte, con ayuda de un hilo que la primera hilaba, la segunda enrollaba y la tercera cortaba cuando la correspondiente existencia llegaba a su término.

    Estas tres hilanderas son hijas de Zeus y de Temis, y hermanas de las Horas, divinidades de las Estaciones y que en una época más tardía llegaron a personificar las Horas del día. Según otra genealogía, eran hijas de la Noche, como las Ceres, y, por consiguiente, pertenecían a la primera generación divina, la de las fuerzas elementales del mundo.[shamelessly cribbed from a google].
    An adventurous and climatic New Year to one and all. Stay safe.

  2. Not quite sure about number 5. It is usually easier to predict the role of a spouse (such as Sonia Gandhi herself, and a good number of others) than that of the offspring (specially females in politics). I am not saying it won’t happen; just that I do not trust the grooming process as capable of (re)producing their leader.

    • Agree. Case in point: Alina Fernández, the daughter of Fidel Castro, is in exile from Cuba, and is an outspoken opponent of her father’s regime.

      • The only problem, Roy, is that for each Alina you can find a Park (as in Geun-hye); granted, even in that case it took her three decades after her father was killed. And to add to your example, even in the U.S., where they love a dynasty, daughters-into-politics have been rather scarce: Carolyn Kennedy never said “yes” to the senate seat of Clinton’s for example.

        • Not that rare:

          Present Secretary of HHS and former governor of Kansas Kathleen Sebelius was the daughter of former governor of Ohio John Gilligan.

          Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan is the stepdaughter of State Rep. (and House majority leader) Mike Madigan.

          Former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth of South Dakota was the granddaughter of governor Ralph Herseth.

        • The father of Nancy Pelosi, the Minority Leader in the US House of Representatives, served as Mayor of Baltimore and as US Congressman from Maryland. As his daughter’s political base in San Francisco was 3,000 miles away, there was no dynastic effect here. Rather, father and daughter shared an interest in politics.

          Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of RFK and niece of JFK, was Lieutenant Governor of Maryland for 8 years, but lost the 2002 race for Governor. She previously lost a race for Congress running as Kathleen Townsend.

          Neither Kennedy Townsend nor Pelosi make a strong case for daughters continuing a political dynasty in the US, albeit for different reasons.

  3. 6. Internal fights amongst the two bands will intensify. Elections will be held in a quasi-state of Chaos. PSUV will win again and it will soon implode after Maduro starts believing he’s the next Bolivar’s reincarnation. Opposition will do the same, old Adecos, Copeyanos separating themselves from the “new” generation. Bolivar fuerte will go down to 50 per dollar and violence will grow rampant, even stronger than now (if that’s conceivable). I can go on and on, but this is as far as I dare in 2012.

  4. I would say within the Bolivarian revolution there are 5 or so camps, same as for the oppo’s and everything may be in play.

    But as to what you do not know which are most things and that in particular concerning President Chavez and his health, most people don’t know much and its more speculation on your part.

    Seems that a deal for pardons being conducted by Solicitor General Cilia Flores and her husband VP Nicolas Maduro with members of the opposition and in particular Deputy Edgar Zambrano, who is a leader of the group Accion Democratica may be part and parcel of the smoothing over with some of the oppo’s, the bureaucracy, the Boli-bougeise and selling out the revolution( my feelings ) and is starting to cause great concern among some of the rank and file militants and grassroots groups .

    Time will tell, what a way to start off the Rojo New Year, hey…

    • If rank and file militants didn’t cheer while opposition figures were prosecuted on spurious charges, there would be no need for pardons. Rank and file militants cheered the erosion of the rule of law, now there is no credible force to oppose the most corrupt elements of Boli-bougeise and no legal means to do so. Given the lack of rule of law, the only way to be part of mainstream Venezuelan politics is to reconcile with the most corrupt elements of Chavezismo.

    • The New Year, at any rate in Venezuela, was never and shall never be Rojo, not even with Chavez in full swing. Accept that.

  5. 2: the funeral…al rey muerto….I expect no major monarch or statesmen to attend yes Correa, Morales but deffo no European leader, not the Chinese president and I doubt even Putin will come! The man was a clown with the ego of Khadafi – I think personalitiy wise the Colonel was the closest thing to him. Who would want to tarnish their brand with that (specially once dead), Chavez will become another entity in the Venezuelan panthenon of Santeria (Maria Lionza, JG Hernandez, etc), but not Che Guevara for sure, or Allende, these two “icons” at least died fighting (Chavez was always one for surrendering and pissimg himself lets not forget that) not aferrandose al poder from a ventilator machine – sad end – “quick send in the clowns…don’t bother they are here”

  6. Somewhat OT.

    Things I know …
    Hugo Chávez willingly escaped his country for health reasons, because he feared reprisals from those he had long persecuted, including the Venezuelan medical establishment. The irony is that the country he chose to believe in, did him in, by way of a number of incompetencies, much like Chávez led his own life.

    Things I wonder about …
    1. Will Chávez or his family allow for the public disclosure of what he had, which from all the rumours appears to have been deducted, early on, by Dr. Navarrete?

    2. Will Dr. Navarrete now be allowed back into the country, after he was persecuted by Chávez for revealing certain details on a patient that was not his, where officialdom failed in its responsibilities?

    • It’s a great irony, valuing loyalty over competence pretty much sums a good part of the disasters during the last 14 years including his treatment.

    • Just like Simon Bolivar or Yassir Arafat, will Chavez bones be tested years from now to find the secret poison that can be blamed on the U.S. or other conspirators?

      • “will Chavez bones be tested years from now ..?”
        Not if one forum member’s wishes are heeded:

        “Yo lo unico que pido es que lo incineren. No es justo que lo entierren y que pongan a los gusanos a que se coman esa mierda.”

  7. El “Greene” está “madurando”…

    Pero la verdad es que nos tienen por los “cabellos”.

    Dictadura ¿no?

    Vivan los capitalitos…

  8. PDVSA will be privatized and the heavy oil fields will be opened up again to US companies as Venezuela becomes the new model a la Colombia – JR Ewing is already booking his flight

      • The terms that will have to be offered to actually develop them will be shameful, now that PDVSA can’t put a dollar of investment into new development. Foreign oil companies will have to put up 100% of the investment, and they won’t do that unless it’s on very favorable terms. I think that’s what Alex probably means. It’s the logical result of Chavez’s plundering of PDVSA.

        • Precisely – they will never develop those fields and get production up with Chinese / Iranian ‘oilfield technology and expertise’ (never existed) the riders of the apocalypse are chaffing at the bit……

          PDVSA will be privatized and Maduro will be the man who does it – 21rst century socialism at it’s best (he and the Boli Burguesa will get their cut and the average guy onnthe street will pay for it as they jack up the price of gas oil)

    • How to get the Venezuelan oil industry (and most of Venezuela if you like) at bargain basement prices for next to nothing…

      A: Don’t hinder chavismo

  9. My heart breaks for the family that love Chavez but alas it may be the only way the country can catch a break.

  10. When Sean Penn, danny Glover etc., come on down – you have our permission to keep them. Thank You.

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