This article by the inimitable Ibsen Martínez points to a very serious problem any eventual Capriles campaign would face: the restlesness the hardcore opposition feels toward any sort of “chavista light” approach.
The money quote:
“And the worst part is having to listen calmly as St. Henrique Capriles tell us his soul hangs on a string, that his heart has stopped when contemplating the trial that God has sent Fidel Castro’s disciple. To say that I am sorry for having voted for that model of christian charity falls short, so I will say it again: I am sorry for having asked people to vote for such a franciscan monk, worthy imitator of Juan Corazón.”
“Hay un camino”? Like hell there is.
Martínez is talking about Capriles’ attitude toward Chávez’s death, but one could easily translate his message into a potential run against Maduro. Capriles, in case he runs, would have to transform himself into a pitbull. No more pussyfooting around the fact that Maduro and Co. are thugs intent on driving Venezuela into a brick wall and running away with the loot. There is no other way to win: make the election about Maduro and his cronies.
Let’s face it – there is nobody that voted for Chávez that we are going to be able to convince at this point, not with the pity factor entering into play, not with the compressed election schedule we will face, and certainly not with economic conditions remaining the same as they were two months ago.
The only way Capriles has a chance is if he puts away the “Progreso para Todos” crap and recycles himself into the Rottweiler of Venezuela’s opposition. The only way he wins is if a few million of the people that voted for Chávez stay home – like they did last Sunday – and do not vote for Maduro because it would be … icky. The only chance he has is if he keeps his base in his pocket and drives the soft chavista vote home. And the only way he does that is if he tells us clearly how horrible a Maduro+Diosdado+Jaua government would be.
If he’s not willing to do that, then we’re better off with Ledezma.