2012 Regional Elections live blog

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Esto es lo que hay…

Chavismo sweeps the board except for Miranda, Lara and Amazonas, with Bolívar on a knife edge. For the first time in who-knows-how-long, not a single Venezuelan governor will come from the Adeco genus, so the clout of Omar Barboza and Henry Ramos within the MUD takes a big hit.

In fact, not a single old-style oppo pol pulled through anywhere: the Klingon death grip the Salas clan had on Carabobo is broken, and the underwhelming Morel is out in Margarita, as is Pérez Vivas in Táchira. 16D could be remembered as the meteorite strike that finally drove the opposition dinocracy to extinction.

Interestingly, Henri Falcón outperformed the opposition’s October showing in his state by 14 points, while Henrique Capriles only did 5 points better in Miranda than he had done in October. It will be lost on no one that a 14-point swing nationally would be enough to overcome chavismo’s October advantage, whereas a 5-point swing would not be. It’s a good thing those two are chummy, because people are going to be warming up Henri Falcón’s ear in the coming days.

9:16 PM: Anzoátegui for PSUV. Apure for PSUV. Aragua for PSUV. Barinas (Chávez’s brother) for PSUV. Mérida (a state the opposition won in October) for PSUV. Miranda margin closer than thought. Monagas for PSUV. Portuguesa for PSUV. Sucre for PSUV. Táchira (another state the opposition won in October) for PSUV. Vargas for PSUV. Yaracuy for PSUV. Zulia was close. Nueva Esparta (another opposition state) for PSUV. Bolívar is too close to call.

9:05 PM: Tibisay Lucena (PSUV) talking.

8:49 PM: It pains me to write this, but Zulia governor Pablo Pérez (Opposition) has lost his reelection bid. He lost to former governor and former Presidential candidate Francisco Arias Cárdenas. This is a huge blow to the opposition, as my home state is the most populous in the nation.

8:48 PM: Multiple sources confirm that Amazonas governor Liborio Guarulla (Opposition) has been reelected.

8:43 PM: Quick count in Miranda suggests Capriles won comfortably, by more than ten points. This would be huge heading into a presidential contest.

8:40 PM: The new governor of Trujillo is on the U.S. Treasury Department’s list of alleged drug kingpins. Way to go, Trujillanos.

8:37 PM: Lizeta Hernández (Delta Amacuro) and Erika Farías (Cojedes), both PSUV candidates, have been elected governors.

8:33 PM: Henry Rangel Silva (Trujillo), Ramón Rodríguez Chacín (Guárico) and Stella Lugo (Falcón) have all won their races. All belong to the PSUV.

8:28 PM: Multiple sources confirm Lara Governor Henri Falcón (opposition) has been reelected. Lara is the fourth most populous state in the nation.

8:05 PM: I think it’s safe to say that the doomsday 23-red-states scenario for the opposition didn’t materialize. We are exceeding expectations (which were horribly low). We’ll lose some, we’ll win some…

7:59 PM Caracas Time: After consulting multiple sources, we’re calling it: Henrique Capriles has been reelected Governor of Miranda.

92 thoughts on “2012 Regional Elections live blog

  1. I never understood the Miranda scare. Even when Ocariz was the elected candidate, polls gave him an ample lead over Jaua.

  2. Bocarandas tweeter says that oppo got zulia,lara,merida,tachira and miranda and that monagas and barinas are too close to call

  3. If Carabobo and Zulia are lost it means that this is not the night for the oppos batesquebrados. If we lose Bolivar and Anzoategui then it is true.

  4. A Total Disaster. Venezuela on a fast track to becoming the poor Cuba of South America, a future it deserves, if the electoral results were not fixed.

    • Pre-vote, I didn’t read any comment from the MUD regarding logistics to ensure ‘el resguardo de los votos.’ Gracias, MUD.

  5. all of the states that change from blue to red (zulia, carabobo, tachira, nueva esparta), in my opinion they are dinosaurs or dinosaurs parties. carabobo, nva esparta: governors that has been 10+ years in the state. zulia is almost the same as pablo perez is rosales dauphin.

    • On second thought, this time the new color in fashion is olive green. Too many former military men in charge of states.

  6. It’s a good thing Amazonas looks really big on the map. If we get Bolivar, bigger still. Other than that, a rough night for the opposition. Nos golpearon, pero no nos noquearon.

  7. I never comment, but I gotta tell you guys, moments like this make me understand that maybe Juan is right, maybe we are truly unelectable

  8. OK, on the other hand: On October 7th we won two states, tonight, in a very bad environment for us, we won three, perhaps four. And our leader still has a job. Progress?

  9. For what is worth, MUD outperformed at least my expectations: I really thought we’d win only in Lara, and perhaps nowhere. The October hangover was murder for MUD mobilization, and Chávez’s new health problem brilliantly exploited for PSUV’s.

    • What “won” was the holdover PSUV maquinaria from the October Presidential Election, and the continuing illegal use of Government resources/coercion/Misiones/Mercal/employment for PSUV candidates.

      • I think sympathy for Chávez played a role here too. That, and a seriously under-funded opposition.

          • Other lesson of the day, the opposition needs to create a more effective machinery in order to stand a chance in an upcoming presidential election.

        • “Sympathy For The Devil”-Great song, bad for Venezuela. The “silver lining”-the Trolls will be dancing around their Faerie circles at the next full moon (and, on this Blog)

  10. In a statistically relevant test today, the MUD proved that governors with at least 3 terms (not necesarily consecutive) and not subjected to primaries are not preferred by the electorate.

    Is the lesson clear now MUD????

  11. Sounds like narco links are an important electoral consideration. Or in Chacin’s case, good looks.

  12. Guys, start being “pragmatic” and “logical” (as you claim to be):

    Think drug traffic. Period.

    Táchira, Mérida, Zulia, Apure on the border… (uh, do I need to say more?). Trujillo, Aragua, Guárico and Carabobo in the middle, as “aliviaderos” to get the “alijos” to cool for a while… Then, by land, with the protection of the “Guardia Nacional Bolivariana”… to Sucre, Anzoátegui and Nueva Esparta, so near Trinidad and the rest of the Caribbean nations… just need a “peñero” (best investment now, I would say…) and a little luck… and Vargas too… you’ll just need a yacht there…

    We are an actual “narco-state”, officially, from this day onward… the routes are as clear as the lines on your hands if you look at them… with oil to boost, and proven links to la Vascuña and Colombia and Irán and all the rest of the narco-terrorist countries!

    Wining Miranda, though it’s good, seem like a “Miss Sympathy” title from this point of view, I think. Un “saludo a la bandera”. A consolation prize…

  13. Por cierto espero que no dejen sólo y abandonado al pobre Velásquez en Bolívar y esten pendientes de cualquier vaina que le quieran echar.

  14. “For the first time in who-knows-how-long, not a single Venezuelan governor will come from the Adeco genus, so the clout of Omar Barboza and Henry Ramos within the MUD takes a big hit.”
    … couldn’t agree with you anymore.

    Today we can say with certainty that the influence that AD – COPEI – UNT exerted over the MUD will be dimmed to an irrelevant point, so Ad-UNT folks end up paying the price for not being decisively active during the presidential campaign of this year. They made the BET that Chavez will die soon of Cancer, and PP will become candidate, since HCR already lost one presidential election, and with PP, AD will be restored to its former glory. Se quedaron sin el chivo y sin la verga… or something like that.

    I can only count as real opposition win the reelection of Capriles, the other two came from the other side. Sorry guys but I don’t like and trust salta talanqueras.

    • If you thought the demise of old parties was a good thing is because you don’t know that Primero Justicia monster from inside. It’s full of AD, COPEI, and even worse, Partido Popular acolytes.
      And I’m sorry but talking about Brinca talanqueras, where do you think Capriles comes from?
      The transition will be a long one, and the start point hasn’t even come up yet.

      • So you think that Capriles is salta talanqueras? Interesting why, care to elaborate that.

        For your rant you must be Anti-PJ, but I’m not Pro-PJ, but I think they might have that new air, that is so feared even among chavista inner circle.

        Nobody is giving a tear for those parties, they had it coming, they eluded a generational and democratic changes for so long, that people got tired of them. So good bye to you then. So yes, I’m super freaking glad that they are long gone and for good. That means that Chavismo will have no excuse, nor will have anyone to blame, when the country hits the bottom of the crapper. People will understand that socialism is not going to work, no matter what, that the socialism had all the money, power and time to implement their agenda, and still the country is not better than 14 year before, that we are even worst! Ask Greece, as Spain, ask them if Socialism worked for them. And yet we have all these leftist, they have the nerve to blame Capitalism.

        From this point, a new generation of politicians, left – center – right, should be coming, to do things right. Otherwise this country doesn’t deserve to exist, and might as well to sell it by pieces, to the Chinese, Russians, Brazilians and even Colombia might be willing to buy Maracaibo and Tachira for themselves.

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