Laureano nails it

A keen observer at work

Laureano Márquez has a wonderful piece today, where he weighs in on the milieu of the times. So if you’re the sort of person who thinks milieu counts for something, go and read it… (in Spanish, btw)

The money quote:

“Si hay que insistir tanto en que el candidato opositor no es lo que parece, es porque parece bueno. Si hay que encontrar un mensaje oculto, es porque el explícito está calando, atrapa y gusta.”

Roughly translated:

“If (the government) insists that the opposition candidate is not what he seems, it must be that what he seems is good. If they have to find a hidden message, it’s because the explicit one is catching on, people are buying it and they like it.”

27 thoughts on “Laureano nails it

      • Sheesh, everyone’s a critic. Milieu appears in the English language dictionary, I’ll have you know. “surroundings, especially of a social or cultural nature: a snobbish milieu.”

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  1. Herr Nagel’s French is about on the level of mein Deutsche…kaput!

    Laureano’s always great to read…but also probably as deep inside the oppo resonance bubble as one can get. Hmmmm…

    Morgendämmerung und sehen

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    • I like being in the bubble. HCR has 500k followers on Facebook (Chavez has under 80k). Chavez has 3 million followers on Twitter, to HCR’s 1 million, but if you look at Twitter Audit most of Chavez’ are fake / non-participants. Then you look at Twitter trends and HCR has about 5x the traffic (if you add up all the trending hash tags) than Chavez. I don’t think that it’s a bubble any more than the enthusiasm for Obama was a bubble. I think it’s real.

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      • As a couple people have pointed out recently, as well as this one, the Colombian government may be many things, but they are not fools or dreamers. Nuevo mejor amigo is looking like a pretty solid bet for a country that the last thing they want is another declaration of war from Commandante Track Suit.

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          • Santos met with Capriles because he is confident that he will win and wanted to assist him by adding his own credibility and stature to that of Capriles, making Capriles look “presidential”. He also wanted to send a message to Chavez saying that if Capriles wins, he will recognize him and will not recognize any shenanigans by Chavismo. Had Santos not been very, very confident, he would not have risked upsetting relations with Venezuela’s existing government, and would have taken a more “Wait and see” approach.

            Santos has an effective and competent intelligence organization that is very capable of analyzing Venezuelan politics and coming to accurate conclusions. They have concluded that a sea-change is in the wind for Venezuela, and they are acting accordingly.

            If the confidence and enthusiasm being expressed by many on this blog (including me) is being in a “bubble”, then that is one BIG BUBBLE and it is growing daily. Most of us here are amateurs, but the Colombian government is not, and they have made a political calculation based on professional political intelligence. To me, that is one very big indicator.

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            • I completely agree, which is why I think “Nuevo mejor amigo” (My best friend) falls on deaf ears. Santos can see what is happening and is making it clear to Chavez where he stands. Excellent comment.

              I think the pessimism expressed by some on this blog (OK, 2 out of 3, really) is wrong and I think Capriles has this. It’s going to be close but it’s going to be interesting. Chavistas are going to shit their collective pants, imo. It’s exciting as anything I’ve ever seen in politics. Loving it.

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              • Thanks Juan. Honestly, what worries me more than winning the election is managing the backlash of the Chavistas in the aftermath. Lots of variables in that equation…

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            • excellent comment, Roy. And I agree. If I may add to it, I believe that for Santos, Capriles represents the (near) future of Venezuela, Chávez the unproductive and conflict-ridden past. Santos’ agenda is, of course, economic prosperity for his nation, but also peace, including with the FARC, guste o no le guste a Uribe y a miles de colombianos. I strongly suspect that these topics were tabled in the not-so-informal chat Santos had with Capriles. And while the doubts of a Capriles win become smaller and smaller, as we near 7O, I hold fast to the belief that Capriles will have a huge influence in Venezuela’s government.

              Aparte … it was nice to see Capriles in very serious garb.

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      • I also agree with Roy and am one of the optimists. Capriles will win. The difference for me is that I’m convinced it won’t be close. I feel a Tsunami coming.

        I also agree that the important moment will come around midnight on 7O.
        What will happen if they simply shut down cel phones, Globo & internet?

        If this happens there needs to be a HUGE appearance of people in front of the CNE

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  2. Speaking of Germans, Salas Römer is having fun with it. Take it as a good sign?

    >>ND.- El fundador de Proyecto Venezuela, Henrique Salas Römer, pidió a Henrique Capriles Radonski no seguir solicitándole un debate al candidato oficialista. Así lo dijo en el marco de la celebración de los 17 años de Proyecto Venezuela en Valencia.
    “Que no siga retando al Presidente saliente, porque él, por su salud, no puede asistir a ningún debate. Él está haciendo un esfuerzo heroico para ser sano. Los esteroides se le dan para que calme los dolores y generar un sentimiento de euforia, y puede llegar a decir, lo que no debe en televisión, si participa en ese debate”, señaló, de acuerdo a una nota de prensa.
    Consideró que el Presidente “no está en condiciones para ser candidato”, por lo cual solicitó “consideración humana”. Asimismo, aseguró que el candidato oficialista “aprendió una lección de vida con su enfermedad, porque “no se debe valorar más al poder, que a la vida”.
    Ante una multitudinaria concentración en el Colegio de Abogados del estado Carabobo, Salas Römer aseguró que en el país se puede disparar una avalancha de votos para lograr el triunfo de Capriles Radonski a la Presidencia de Venezuela, y que esto se puede lograr sólo cuando en el país exista la convicción de que Capriles va ganando las encuestas.<<

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    • Well, there have been hints, before, Juan. Hasta de la parte de Capriles. But I’ll admit SalasRömer’s comments are fuller, stronger. With all due respect to SR, I would have changed one of his statements to read:
      “..el candidato oficialista “aprendió una lección de vida con su enfermedad, porque “no se debe valorar más al poder, que a la vida, tanto suya como la de millones de otros”.

      I don’t think Chávez has governed (if he ever was capable) for all the time he been unwell.

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