Extrapolation Chronicles

Datanálisis says that Henrique Capriles leads Hugo Chávez in Miranda, the nation’s second most populous state, by 16 points. In the 2010 parliamentary elections, in which the opposition...

Datanálisis says that Henrique Capriles leads Hugo Chávez in Miranda, the nation’s second most populous state, by 16 points.

In the 2010 parliamentary elections, in which the opposition beat Chávez by 4 percentage points, the opposition beat Chávez in Miranda by … sixteen points.