Caracas Chronicles

I see a lot of enthusiasm. I see our smartest readers being quoted as saying that the trend clearly shows Capriles is going to win. I see people who did not vote for Capriles assuring me that he is going to win. I see reasonable people saying that William Ojeda’s little stunt today – abandoning ship – is a sure sign Capriles is leading.

I dunno.

Let’s call a spade a spade: the most optimistic scenario is that we’re tied or leading slightly and, man, that’s not too reassuring to me.

We are on a kinfe’s edge, and we may well lose. We could even lose big.

Let’s entertain that thought for a minute, without fear.

Suppose Chávez wins fair and square on October 7th. Chances are there will be another election some time in the near future, one without Chávez.

Does anyone here believe Chávez is not gravely ill? Are we convinced Chávez will be around in six years’ time?

I’m pretty convinced he won’t be. And if he passes away before his inauguration or before the end of his third year in office – God bless him – we have to hold new elections.

So even in the worst possible scenario, this is not our only shot at the well in the near future. In that case, what do we do? Who do we run? On what platform?

Hopefully it won’t come to that. But we don’t do anyone any favors by not planning ahead and simply refusing to consider this possibility.