“I’m sure you’ve heard about Intrade, the predictive market website… I follow it somewhat regularly and they just opened a section about the Venezuelan election.”
“They’ve been pretty right on when it comes to American elections and I can only imagine these people read the same (if not less) of the information and polls we read…”
It’s a fun data point, but nothing more than that. Prediction markets are often pretty thin, especially so when they deal with on arcane subjects like a fight for the soul of the neovenezolanidad del siglo XXI. A handful of trades involving relatively little money could make Capriles’s InTrade price jump all over the place.
So, caveat intrador…