You loved hearing it here first
Consultores 21’s June poll has Chávez on 47.9% and Henrique Capriles on 44.5%, well within the margin of error.
Standard disclaimers apply: like all polls, this is a snapshot of public opinion at the time the question was asked, not a crystal-ball/clairvoyant prediction about what will happen in October. Still, they asked the question, and that’s how people answered.
I’ve yet to hear a really convincing explanation for why Venezuela’s two best pollsters get such wildly different numbers of undecideds.
One thing I know is that the numbers Datanalisis has been throwing around stem from their quarterly omnibus survey, a loooooong survey with questions from many different clients on many different products, issues and ideas.
Somehow, somewhere, the length of the Datanalisis survey itself could be driving Capriles-leaners to refuse to answer the question. But I’m distinctly hazy on the specifics of why that may be.
Caracas Chronicles is 100% reader-supported.
We’ve been able to hang on for 22 years in one of the craziest media landscapes in the world. We’ve seen different media outlets in Venezuela (and abroad) closing shop, something we’re looking to avoid at all costs. Your collaboration goes a long way in helping us weather the storm.
Donate
