My theory r.e.: Dan Rather’s theory (Updated)

The one thing we know for sure is that Cuban doctors monopolize all the first-hand information on the state of Chávez’s health, and when we say Cuban doctors, what we mean is G2.

So how can you take those lemons and turn them into some juicy intelligence lemonade?

Simple. You produce three different versions of the medical report, and leak them, in strict confidence, to three different Trusted Insiders (TM). Insider A gets Version 1, Insider B gets Version 2, Insider C gets Version 3 – something, say, about “metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma”.

So, when version 3 turns up in your morning newspaper, who’s been talking to the press? Simple, huh?

In short, I have no idea who leaked that info to Dan Rather. But I bet the Cubans know.

[Update: I honestly thought I was being clever with this post. Turns out the technique has been around forever, and turned up not just in Game of Thrones but in a Tom Clancy novel too.]

122 thoughts on “My theory r.e.: Dan Rather’s theory (Updated)

  1. This latest episode on Hugo’s disease folly makes me remember a specific chapter of Clash of Kings (the second book of Game of Thrones) where Tyrion Lannister set a ruse to find out who is the one “leaking” all his secrets to Queen Cersei. What he does is pretty much what you describe: He tells Varys (the master eunuch spy) one story, Lord Petyr (Littlefinger) another, and Grand Master Pycelle another, and then he just sit and wait to see who is the one blowing the whistle at the other end…

  2. I swear I wrote this post before ever watching an episode of Game of Thrones, though 3 or 4 people have picked up on the congruence already.

  3. Couldn’t his top secret source actually be Dr. Marquina’s twitter account? i’ve seen mention of this “rhabdomyosarcoma” for a while in his timeline.. nothing really new except giving an estimated life expectancy of 2 months. I would have bought this story if he added anything new to it, but really, anyone could have made up this based on existing information, maybe Rather considered Marquina a good enough source and actually spoke to him and told him pretty much the same he’s been saying publicly. Marquina reacted to the Rather article apparently “shocked” but who knows…

    • If I recall correctly Marquina has been talking about a leiomyosarcoma and Rather about a rhabdomyosarcoma, so I wouldn’t think Marquina would be the source.

      However, I defer to those who can tell the differences between the two types of cancer. Treatments, prognosis, etc. could be dramatically different.

  4. Funny thing: I look for “rabdomiosarcoma” in Google, and within the top 5 results, there are two results from cuban web pages… Filtered results? SEO via cuban-venezuelan internet cable?

  5. so i guess there’s nothing new under the sun. now, pray do tell, what on earth is the meaning of tonite’s “rompiendo el celofán” by leopoldo castillo in aló C? conclave meeting between the cardinals with the 4 pesuvi’s: jaua, maduro godgiven and jvr?? why oh why would they meet with the cardinals and not with say: a ) los pranes, b) timoschenko, c) la piedrita d) los escapados del rodeo. … the cardinals? why on earth? see if any of you can find the parallel with G of thrones here? i’m flummoxed.

  6. it’s true marquina has talked about leiomyosarcoma not rhabdo… don’t know the difference myself. i’malso guessing cubans.

    • Might speculative diagnoses change?

      Perhaps the G2 realize that folks are losing interest in Chávez and his illness. So they create pseudo-medical information with a novel twist, before releasing it to coincide with Capriles’ public (and scathing) announcement on security issues.

      The conversation might go like this …

      G2a: Oye chico, we milked the leio bit. People have lost interest; they don’t believe any of it anymore. Qué hacemos?

      G2b: Try rhabdo. It’s still a myosarcoma, really bad news in adults.

      G2a: Do we get it to Marquina?

      G2b: Yeah. Boca’s overused. Haven’t heard from Marquina lately. While you do that, I’ll wait a little, before slipping the hot tip to Dan Rather and suggesting that he contact Marquina for deep throat info on the subject.

      G2a: Dan Rather? Why him? Wasn’t he discredited a number of years ago?

      G2b: Yeah, but he still pulls in the eyeballs. And we’ve got to diffuse the attention on Capri. News from Rather should blow their pop stand.

      G2a: Marquina is lit up.

      G2b: I’ll give him time to read up on it. Rather’s next.

    • “it’s true marquina has talked about leiomyosarcoma not rhabdo… don’t know the difference myself.”

      “i’ve treated patients with methastasis and they’ved looked as good as he does…”

      Yeah. It doesn’t really matter what kind of malignancy they have.

  7. Although I’d take any Tyrion Lannister reference I can get, the first time I saw this was in a Jack Ryan novel (Tom Clancy). The canary trap, or something like that.

    Either way…you had to spoil the fun for all us, didn’t you?

  8. Ohh are we discussing Game of Throne plot references here ?

    So. Who is playing JVR ?

  9. In any case, Rather makes for a big red herring: we get to discuss the illness for a few days, pass along a few e-mails, and then Mr. President comes up “looking healthy”. And Rather becomes another cog in a mass media conspiracy (“he’s a Democrat, HCR is helped by Greenberg-Carville who are Democrats, bag-full o’ dirty tricks and whatnot”)…

    Back in 1999, our long forgotten friend Eliecer Otayza said that we were in a Lockean “state of general suspicion” (the British philosopher’s warring condition which precluded civility). Perez Pirela is our top paranoid, and he has an audience for plugging this.

  10. It was Colonel Mustard, in the Kitchen, with a Knife…

    Seriously, this is clever, and Francisco was clever to have thought of it independently. However, the business of Intelligence has been around as long as mankind has engaged in war and politics. I would venture to guess that the same sorts of games were played by the Greeks, the Pharaohs of Egypt, and by empires before those.

    Do I think that this is what happened in this case? In my learned opinion, I can tell you with reliable certainty “que no tengo ni puta idea.”

    • “it was Colonel Mustard, in the Kitchen, with a Knife…” hahaha !! the only sensible statement so far :)

  11. It is pretty much confirmed, that experts from several countries besides Cuba have seen Chavez and his charts. It seems very likely that Bocaranda’s contention that medical records and charts from attending and consulting physicians have been emailed back and forth from Cuba is true. For all the G-2’s capabilities they can not match tech capabilities of rival agencies. My suspicion is that the emails and other communications were hacked into, and then leaked to select ;people. Not to say these emails couldn’t be deliberate Cuban plants.

    • yeah, and the attending physicians would refer to a fracture of the “arm” of the femur, and an invasion of cancerous cells in the blood duct (ducto sanguineo). Sure….

    • Yeah. We can be absolutely sure that the G2 – one of the oldest and most effective intelligent services in the world – has allowed the emailing of the dictator’s medical history, because, quite frankly, there aren’t other methods for transmitting confidential information, like, for example, a trusted personal courier. Maybe a G2 operative? As a matter of fact, the CIA has exactly the same problem. And, yeah, the G2 also can’t match other intelligence services’ technical capabilities, because the money that Cubans get from re-selling our oil is totally invested in the wellbeing of the Cuban people. And what do you know? The guys at the G2 don’t expect an email to be hacked, because surely it is very difficult for anyone to do so. Someone in Cuba must be laughing his or her ass off.

      • get some common sense. Communications from and to Cuba are hardly a formidable target. Cuba has a piss-poor communications infraestructure. . I don;t care how much Chavez has given them, their military/intelligence communications capabilities are obsolete compared to what the post-9/11 US has. It also has low cell phone and internet penetration (compared to a country like Pakistan or Iraq) making it easier to zero in on individual transmitters.
        Once you can crack the communications it is a matter of finding targets who are privy to the information you are looking for. There is a circle of people outside of G2 control in places like Brazil and Spain are receiving and sending communications to Cuba. Not to mention,. information flowing to certain top level Venezuelan intelligence, military and government players, who do not have the discipline of Cuban apparatchiks..
        A reasonably competent intelligence service, through monitoring cell phone chatter and email accounts could eventually get the information – which is nothing more than medical charts of a single patient.

        • “A reasonably competent intelligence service, through monitoring cell phone chatter and email accounts could eventually get the information – which is nothing more than medical charts of a single patient.”

          Uh-huh. Then what’s taken Hillary et al so long to get to that chart … assuming the source of information is credible and not based on supposition? It’s not like the rabomiasarcoma (sic) diagnosis is a novelty, either. Here’s one guy (not the first) to mention it: http://argenisvenezuela.blogspot.ca/2011/11/el-cancer-de-hugo-chavez-continua-la.html

          The latest packaging of the news (thanks to Rather) makes for a good psyop tactic, but there are enough holes in it to make it less credible .. unless you’re an airhead who needs to wave pom-poms and pretend to know what you don’t have a clue about. (Don’t take it personally.)

          • If I were him or her, I would take it personally, because clearly this being doesn’t have a clue about what he or she is talking about. It is clear that this person does not know the difference between supposition and fact. This is exactly the kind of airhead that can and is being used to spread stupidity. Another nutcase. It is better to let them speak alone.

          • hey, simply read the ABC article, it says that intelligence sources out of Washington have confirmed what Rather said about the diagnosis.

            As far as Hillary saying x or y, or confirming intelligence.This administration is very careful and deliberate when strategically leaking information. They more likely than likely have vetted this information – it probably comes from more than one source. I have emphasized electronic interception – just because it is one method wher ethe US has clear superiority

      • WTF are you to comment about the G-2? when all you use to back up your arguments is that they are “one of the oldest and most effective intelligent (sic) services in the world”:

    • So, let’s see. The G2, an intelligence service forged during the cold war and one that has been around for more than 50 years, has been outwitted by Bocaranda, Rather, Marquina, Navarrete, et al.? I am now laughing my ass off.

      • Welcome to 1989 :p
        After 9-11, the US Intelligence, military, and law enforcement Community has upped its signal intelligence capabilities enormously. Forget listening into phone calls, how about blanketing the entire military and civilian communications infraestructure of heavily populated countries.
        The G-2 however efficient it is in Human Intelligence, has technology that is no better (if not a whole lot worse) than that of the Iraq’s Baath military/political structure, or Khadaffi’s Libya. Those are all countries with money, that could buy top-line off-the-shelf and Russian/Chinese equipment, run by sophisticated intelligence services. They have all been penetrated and hacked by Western intelligence services.
        Cuba’s G-2 is from a broke country, with a poor communications infraestructure 90 miles from the US. I wouldn’t doubt that most emails, cell phone calls, or sat phone calls are hacked into from the US.

        • Yeah, I can glean you are an expert in intelligence services. I am sure that you are up to date on the G2’s technical capabilities. Still laughing my ass off.

          • wow… your claim of the G-2’s internal and external competence is supported entirely on it being a “Cold War” intelligence agency. Guess what? the Cold War ended in 1989. Prior to that Cuban intelligence operated with top level technology courtesy of billions in East block funding and technical support. Their command and control and listening capabilities vis a vis the U.S. was top notch.
            And what happened after the East Block fell. Ever hear of the “Special Period”? Slashed budgets across the board even in key institutions. Cuba’s entire government budget was shrunk – and there is no way the intelligence agencies wouldn’t suffer. Loss of foreign advisors and technology. degraded capabilities. Sure they have a bunch of top level spies and assets in places like Caracas. But technically they are really degraded.
            No comparison at all to the U.S. that has spent hundreds of billlions in dollars.

            • Still laughing my ass off. But from now on, I will let you to write alone and won’t bother to answer anymore. Go and spew your fertile? imagination on someone else.

              • You aren’t even making a coherent response to anything I say, just making idiotic attacks. Address the damn isssues:: Are you going to deny that the US since the Cold War has acquired the top (or top 2) electronic eavesdropping and electronic intelligence gathering systems in the world? That Cuba had top technology when it was the East Blocks advanced base in the hemishpere, but that with the end of Communism it has lost funding and technical capabilities? That from 91 to roughly 2002 its entire government was on a shoe-string budget and cut off from most of the world?
                That what the U.S. spends in a week in its electronic intelligence matches Cuba’s ENTIRE government budget for a year.
                GMAFB, are you ignoring how the US has clowned Iraq and Serbia Russian-built command and control systems twice? Found terrorists all over the world, hacked into Iran’s nuclear weapons systems? How can the G-2 compete with that? Even if Chavez gives them a billion a year. Specially when they communicate with Clowns in Caracas, who do have loose lips.

    • “It is pretty much confirmed, that experts from several countries besides Cuba have seen Chavez and his charts.”

      Please, provide proof of this confirmation. Although I suspect, you will keep us waiting for a long, long, long time …

  12. Furthering your logic, if all the ones involved directly with the information are Cuban, then they are all aware of the G2 tactics for discovering leaks, so they would be very careful not to disclose information unless it was obtained in an untraceable manner, or another that is only traceable to several.

    • I would wager it was all intercepted electronic communications, be it emails, cell, sat phone or military encrypted communications.

  13. I’m thinking that if the report is true, Hugo will not be alive after the end of July. I’m starting my stopwatch right NOW! I will expect that this issue should be reviewed again then. Let’s say we set the date now and agree to make a note of it now so we don’t forget.
    I would also like to note here that there was a similar disclosure last November when someone close to Chavez reported that he had only about 6-months to live. I remember that event well, because I mentioned it to a party of Chavista’s while we were watching a Venezuelan World Cup play-off game on TV. Needless to say, they were not very receptive to that report, but I’ve been waiting to see if it eventually panned out. In my mind, the Rather report (and others) seem to knit together in a coherent timeline that all together give boost of credibility. Looking at the big picture, common sense dictates that going to Cuba provides the extra control for blocking out bad news. I can only think that there would be no reason to block out good news.

    • I’ve also thought of the USGOV psyop, with Dan Rather paid to trumpet what reeks of manipulation, as follows: “it is doubtful the dictator will live to see the results.” What’s puzzling is mention of Chavez’ treatment in Cuba — three times. I guess that might relate to three operations, but does not include multiple chemo and radiation therapies.

      Curiouser and curiouser … anything’s possible.

          • Go to the othe blog where you waste your time, read all comments related to subject. Contact your fb friend and ask him if true then go to store and buy biggest can of shut the fuck up. Sorry cannot be more specific. I am not going to link you into the comment, you do not deserve that. Do your own work

      • I see things different. Hillary decided to share this with the American public for reasons. Obviously they feel that good about the source and info. 1. They are informing and preparing the American public first and foremost. 2. Not going there por ahora

        • “They are informing and preparing the American public first and foremost.”

          Huh?
          Since when is the American public as affected by Chávez as are millions of Venezuelans?

          • Hillary’s report to the American public. Is the air that dense in Canada? Do you have a boyfriend? Sorry about getting personal but you are rude and nasty.

          • Any idea how much annual commerce between Vz-Us? Petroleum products? Cocaine? Money laundering? Any idea how many US citizens in Vz? You think with your head up your big ass.

      • Historical opportunities are afoot…I hope Potus does not squander. Ronald Reagan would not

        • Yes, I would agree on the historical opportunities. Too bad that the shots taken so far are, for the most part, transparent and not altogether credible. Hope Potus improves its game.

  14. No payments just a leak from a friend…don’t read too much into it. It is what it is (face value). That info is the same others have. It’s what they have and they feel good about. In two months we may get another two month extension. That’s cancer as I know it but I’m we’ll know with certainty when the time comes

    • My goodness, how honored we are to have before us someone with inside track information from very high levels, wasting their valuable time writing comments in a blog.

      Do you know GWEH?

    • This Mr. or Ms Jamón is quite funny. I don’t understand anything he or she writes, bit it is quite funny.

      • What’s funny is the news was picked up by many and today more Americans know about the actual health of Chavez than Chavez’ own citizens. Personally I think the estimate is aggressive scenario meaning he may live longer.

  15. And you are quiet dense too. It’s so obvious but you cannot see it in your blindness. The journalist who uncovered this (IBD) has been taunting Eva on twitter. It is very funny I agree.

  16. I don’t see a domestic solution….oppo has no leverage. The ony leverage I see are US narcotics indictments. Pray to your Gods.

    • Jeez, talk about information out there. In an article dated June 2, 2012 from Washington D.C. Spanish Newspaper ABC publishes an article pretty much confirming what Rather says about the cancer, based on “information from intelligence sources”.

      http://www.abc.es/20120602/internacional/abci-chavez-opiaceo-cancer-tratamiento-201206021232.html

      “Intelligence Sources” based out of “Washington DC” usually means “US Government”.Coming from one of the main newspapers of record in Spain, means that they received information, from a reliable source, and found it credible enough to print. That source more than likely providing this information with the total approval and permission of decisionmakers in the US government.

      More than likely filtered versions of this have been making the rounds for months, and now they are upping the game, first giving it to rather, and now Spanish media.

          • Delusional. That makes two of them on this board, which makes for an interesting study in what has become the psychiatric wing of this blog.

          • Wrong conclusion. There’s only one. Gweh = M. Ham = Boli-Nica (boludo en Nicaragua?) He (and it is a male) used different emails to generate different avatars, which is so-o-o clever you might just buy his claim of knowing everything there’s to know about global intelligence services … Except he tripped up in a *conversation* with you, above, and showed the seams of his identity. Clearly, he’d be fired by the G2. Y con razón. Qué boludo.

            • Actually, he wouldn’t even be considered. This guy looks like someone who spends half of his time reading Soldier of Fortune in his mother’s basement. The other half, probably playing with himself. Hardly G2 material. Ok, time to get back to discuss important things.

              • Wow, you really are an internet genius. Why don’t you go read some Wikepedia entries and come back when you have half a clue. Even your insults are weak. Acomplejado.

              • Not only that, but get a load of this. Subsequent to my earlier comment, I got a COLLECT call from a “Jay White”. Naturally I didn’t accept. Evidently, g.w.e.h. / M.H.a.m / Boludo-nica didn’t figure on the electronic operator revealing his name: “Jay White”. This stupidiy follows an earlier attempt of his to stalk by calling me, late at night, from his cellphone. (Unfortunately, the owner of this blog in a rabid fit, revealed my full name; Jay White ‘tomó nota’.) That’s who this creep is. I guess the CIA doesn’t pay its pretend agents for outgoing calls.

                Pobre loco. Aside from that, I’m grateful I’m able to discuss this with someone of sanity. Thank you.

              • Oh, dear, I’m not being very clear. I just realized that confusion is amok with the initials of Johnny Walking and jerk-off Jay White. The person of sanity is Johnny Walking. Thanks again.

              • The owner of this blog revealed your full name? That is a new low for him! I guess you are just going to have to change your phone numbers, and make them private. This guy is just a wacko, but it would be prudent to take some precautions. On the other hand, it looks like definitively he has been playing with himself more than reading Soldier of Fortune, or something else for that matter. Not that he understands anything that he reads. But the kicker is that he calls COLLECT. I guess mamma is not very generous about his weekly allowance. Have a good night.

            • “He (and it is a male) used different emails to generate different avatars, which is so-o-o clever you might just buy his claim of knowing everything there’s to know about global intelligence services”
              Syd–you are right. He may be the same person I am aware of-let me explain-
              He’s Cuban and came to Fl. long time ago-Miami and maybe was married-worked for US government -maybe. (He maybe receiving retirement from US gov’t)anyway- he moved to
              Nicaragua-has/had an english language school. I don’t know when it started but he is really really an agent of Castro -or just wants to be. He’s been working too much for too long-and is in the in crowd in Managua. He has several people who work for him and computers and they pump out propaganda to various newspapers etc.
              Check with Miami Herald. Ask Ira- he should know something-if he is the same person and he may be…This guy has had 100 different alias names and is claims to be a
              lawyer and much more- seems to be very good with language.
              I heard a few years ago that he was dying -can’t be so lucky. Also, a few years ago I am sure he met Maduro when Maduro was active with Patricia Rodas in Hondurus and Maduro came to Managua-I am sure he would claim that he knows Chavez. And, of course, he knows Ortega.
              He hates the US and the “Miami mafia” he calls anyone who opposes Castro.
              He claims to be connected with Hezbullah etc. and on and on..this is all I know.
              Big fish in the blogosphere. He has a group I believe and they are everywhere- they have appeared in NY Times commentary, Wall Street Journal and many other places.

              • In simple terms, a world-class moron with center-of-the-earth deep psychiatric issues. Thanks for the info. Now, I will have a field time with him every time he posts any “comment.”

            • You short bus riders need to wake the fauck up Syd, Walker, and that last loon, for the last time. I am not G.Ham., J Walker, G-2 or whoever your paranoid characters think I am. Under this handle (Boli-Nica as in Boliviano y Nicaraguense pendejos) I have enough of an online presence through my blog and postings on blogs and forums -that are easily traceable through a quick Google search. Not hiding anything, my blog is linked right on my entries here. Fact you characters have been writing dumb-ass responses to me without even checking a link or running a quick Google just robs you of any credibility.

              NOW STFU….

  17. This thread is bizarre.Some people like to make insider jokes with complete strangers.

    • others love to share poetry… with complete strangers. But you can’t top one soul who periodically parachutes on these boards, says the darndest things with the most presumptive air, goes rabid when he’s called upon it, changes nicks, and calls me up late at night like some stalker. How’s that for bizarre?

  18. Lazy and ignorant is no way to go through life kids. If you are going to argue and insult, at least have the brains to see what is right in front of you. Pila de ignorantes

        • Remarkable!

          When I received a SECOND collect call from “Jay White” (aka G.W.E.H./M. H.a.m./Boli-Nica), after the licking you got on this board, the announced name that followed the electronic operator’s comment sounded exactly like the *person* in the image you provide.

          You are one douche bag.

          Furthermore, based on your lack of focus, your lack of mental cohesion on your websites (the earlier Great White Elephant Hunter, now your Boli-Nica rants), your delusions through comments on this and similar boards, and your stalking, it is my unqualified opinion, Jay White, that you need professional help. If you are based in Nicaragua, where you have gone to escape your demons, I suggest you look for that help.

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