Datanalisis’s April number is out.
I only have the headline figures, but:
1,300 people surveyed.
- Chavez 43%
- Capriles 26%
Yes, it’s an early poll. Yes, Chávez is still well south of 50%. Yes, most people aren’t tuned in yet. And yes, a lot can change in five months.
But no, this is not where we’d wish to be at this stage.
 | JotaE on Capriles drops a “C… |
 | extorres on Capriles drops a “C… |
 | Omar on Omaigá Chronicles |
 | moses on Motorizado nation |
| moses on Motorizado nation |
 | Canucklehead on Omaigá Chronicles |
 | Aquiles on S&P to Maduro: down you… |
| Aquiles on Omaigá Chronicles |
 | Juan Cristobal Nagel on Capriles drops a “C… |
 | Bruni on Capriles drops a “C… |
What would be interesting to see is the rejection numbers for both. But then again, I must insist on the fact that we’re still 5 months away from the elections. Any numbers at this stage are irremediably mere headline makers, not a proper reference for what’ll happen. I’m a big believer of the “voto de urna” phenomenon.
Keller said something similar in 2006. Hidden vote, the trend…
What might be interesting: ” do you agree with the “direction” the country is moving?”
It comes as no surprise, really. Anyway, be ready for the post-election disbelief and general depression as has been the norm for the last twenty? times.
It’s too early to throw in the towel, though of course this isn’t where we would’ve wanted to start from.
Capriles is trying so hard to attract disenchanted chavista voters that he is not being himself. Instead he always appears to be following a script that seems to have been written by Henry Ramos Allup (yikes!). This is coming across very evidently and I believe is causing rejection from both the middle ground opposition (who feel Capriles is ignoring them) and disenchanted chavistas (who are not buying the “we’ll keep the missions” speech). I don’t think this is a reason to be alarmed, but the campaign chief and his team must take a close look at the polls and revise the strategy. Capriles’ lack of charisma and oratory skills is also hurting him deeply.
True. And what I find very worrying is that so many think oratory skills are an inborn trait.
It is just so wrong! And when people concede you can learn they say “but it’s too late, we have to do with this”. Capriles would do a little bit better if he spent more time in training and then holding speeches that reach a thousand people more.
Being a good orator for a presidential candidate is like a gunfighter
having a quick-draw, a lack of which gets you killed in both professions
I’ living abroad, so I have not experienced first hand HRC’s campaign, but looking at these poll numbers, it seems that it’s not making a dent on Chavez popularity. Yes, HRC is not especially charismatic, but that’s not the biggest problem.
Let’s face it: HRC folksy attitude is nice and all, but he has to address the elephant in the room: he’s not just a regular Venezuelan. His family is well-off and people mistrust/dislike rich people in Venezuela. Being honest, the biggest issue about the “meiriademasiado” kids was his “sifrineao” accent.
Second, he should be honest about the Missions. Most of them are an utter failure. And most of them were already there before Chavez, but with a different name. Let’s get rid of Barrio Adentro and improve our hospitals! Forget about Madres de Venezuela and give these kids better schools and daycare centers!
I have the feeling that HRC’s strategy of being Chavez light will not flight. People will prefer the original and not a flavorless knock-off. So, please, please, please, stop the this farce. It didn’t work for Vanilla Ice, it won’t work for HRC either.
Let HRC be HRC!
No way, José.
I’d say that Barrio Adentro, working properly is one of the programs that should be kept if funds allow. Hospitals are collapsing, the burden is heavy, and there are many procedures that don’t need a hospital. I had been given injections there, treated for sprained ankle, and specially, taking a bullet wounded relative to clean his wound every two days. The first time we tried the hospital, 3 hours later we were still waiting, tired, surrounded by others with similar issues and urgent cases kept coming.
We tried the Barrio Adentro, much closer, and 30 min later, his wound was clean, with new gauze. He even had some physical therapy there. If you’d tell me that you can fix the hospitals soon enough to get rid of Barrio Adentro, fine. But you and I know that’s not the truth. Hospitals have big problems and something needs to be done about it.
People surrounding Capriles saying this kind of thing will be hurting him much more than his accent.
Yes, HRC can keep the misiones, but he needs better arguments than just saying: “just because”. If he does that, It is just pandering and people are not going to fall for that. He must use his very own arguments, just like you’re doing right now: after 13 years, our health system is in tatters and we’ll need barrio adentro til we can improve things.
I must point out that there’s always been Barrio Adentro but with a different name. During CAP 2 there were ambulatorios. The biggest difference between ambulatorios and Barrio Adentro was the ressources available for both programs.
Besides, a blanket statement about how good the misiones are is crap. Yes, some misiones address some important issues, but the misiones are nothing but “pañitos calientes”. Do you actually believe that we need misiones like “Vuelvan Caras”, “Agro Venezuela” or “Saber y Trabajo”?
HRC must also address the issue of wasteful spending and corruption that infest the misiones. Barrio Adentro, for example, should be a part of the whole system, not just a mision running on parallel outside of it.
Sure, I agree. Many (most?) misiones are a waste. So, having so many good examples to prove your point, why do you focus in the one that can be defended, is fairly popular and is seen as a conquest of El Pueblo? In any case, it’s terrible, terrible PR. You are playing exactly the part that Chavistas has assigned to the oppo.
We had ambulatorios, but Barrio adentro went further and reached many places without ambulatorios, it has made a difference in the life of people, and health care is going towards distribution, as opposed to a centralized approach, in many places.
I agree with you, but we need to pitch the message in a different way.
I can admit that talking about Barrio Adentro will ruffle some feathers, as you clearly points out, but I stick to muy guns. First, any blanket statement on misiones – whether positive or negative – is rubbish. Second, HRC can outdo Chavez on being a charismatic populist. He needs to talk honestly about the misiones and how he plans to change or improve them.
It’s not rubbish. We need to win the elections, and some social programs need to be kept. If only for the sake of political stability. Picking Barrio Adentro for a fight does not really gets you more votes, quite the opposite.
I’d like to see the data, statistics and serious analysis that shows that Barrio Adentro or any other social program believed to be a success is really a welfare improving program. The question is weather an additional bolivar spent in Barrio Adentro has a larger impact on welfare (or on public health indexes) than spending that same additional bolivar in public hospitals (or any other alternative use such as public schools, rural roads, etc.). That’s really the question we should be asking. It’s not about anecdotal evidence, baseless beliefs or popularity.
Indeed, we need to make cost/efficiency analyses. But, I insist that it is near sighted to come across as interested in gutting one of the most popular programs that could be useful.
I mean one thing is “we will make a cost-benefit analysis”, another is “GUT BARRIO ADENTRO!!!”, and the latter fits perfectly in the role, of heartless, cold, rich-handled opposition that the the govt is touting. Do you want to win the elections or you want to show your righteous outrage?
Yes he is trying very hard to win Chavez’s supporter and I do not see anything wrong with that… i hope that the non-Chavez supporters will vote for HCR any way. I also do not see that the missions have to go…and they can be improved or changes after he wins. He has to convince people that after Chavez thins are not going to be “tierra arrasada”as the Chavistas said… What these pool suggest to me is that Venezuelan society is rotten to the core…how Chavez can have such a big support after all the corruption cases and lies and broken promises?…the level of apathy is so big and Chavistas are taking advantages of that and the “bola de billete” that they are controlling…. How ever in Venezuela the possibilities of that the impossible occurs are always greater than in any other place, except Macondo…so I still think that HCR have to still keep the hard work and we have to keep supporting him in anyway possible. For example can somebody tell me how venezuelans outside the country can financially support the campaign…off course in a legal way?
omg dude its HCR not HRC
jajajajajja
Like I’ve already stated before: there’s always been Barrio Adentro but with a different name. They were called ambulatorios. The biggest difference between ambulatorios and Barrio Adentro was the ressources available for both programs.
So, yes: you can get rid of Mision Barrio Adentro and his shady accounting and still provide primary care provided at ambulatorios run by local authorities. Getting rid of Barrio Adentro doesn’t mean closing the Barrio Adentro clinics. It means getting rid of it as a tool for propaganda. As I said before: Kill Mision Barrio Adentro, but keep the clinics running under local gov administration.
Referring to Capriles as HRC is quite confusing, as those are, coincidentally, Hugo Rafael Chávez’s selfsame initials, especially when you seem to be talking about them both.
It is not logically consistent to believe at the same time both of these statements: 1.- This poll can be trusted, 2.- HCH still has a chance. Either one or the other statement has to go. There is a 17 point difference, so what do you expect will happen that will change that?
Usually, with such a big difference, something big has to happen in order to turn things around. So let’s see some of the (big) things that have happened in the last six years:
1.- Pudreval.
2.- Electric system near collapse.
3.- 16.000 to 20.000 murders a year + lots of kidnappings.
4.- One of the highest levels of inflation in the world.
5.- Repeated violations of the constitution, including disrespecting election results (ask Ledezma).
6.- A few billion dollars missing (or unaccounted for) in FONDEN.
7.- The Illaramendi scandal.
…and if you want more recent events:
8.- The oil spill in the Guarapiche (now renamed “Aguapiche”) and other rivers.
9.- The declarations of Aponte Aponte and Velazquez Alvaray.
And yet, the gap between Chavez and HCH is still 17 points…
So, again, what do you expect will happen that will change things in favor of HCH? A video of Chavez raping a newborn baby? (and I’m not even sure that would be enough, if the 17 point difference is true).
Where I say HCH, I mean HCR.
Getashrink, great, simple and concrete analysis. In few words, ” YA NOS JODIMOS …. AGAIN ” lets face it – quit fabricating unsustainable justifications and hopes.
There is nothing to do but to prepare survey and endure the best we can.
If the opposition were to get only the number of votes csst in its primary, what percentage would that be, say, of the number of votes cast in the last presidential election? How did the opposition get 48% to 50% in the midterm elections, when Cahvez made tthem about himself?
Something is funny about the figures here.
It’s just an early poll. Not encouraging, but hardly the end of the story either.
My guess is that yeah, it will tighten. But let’s not fool ourselves, this isn’t where we’d hoped to be at this point.
Not just funny, but fishy. Luis Vicente Leon said this last week:
http://www.el-nacional.com/noticia/33749/16/Datanalisis-La-oposicion-tiene-opcion-real-de-ganar-la-Presidencia.html
My gut tells me Datanalsis is slowly following the path of Hinterlaces…
It’s a real trap to avoid, this whole the-poll-doesn’t-show-the-result-I-want-ergo-it’s-fishy thing. We should just face it: the guy has very little access to media, and without the free publicity that came with the primaries it’s a struggle.
gustavo: if you read the report that is quoted in the article, you can see that el nacional actually interpreted out of the perol a wee bit… the original report has nothing to do with the oppos chances… instead it talks about the internal composition of chavismo…
jeffrey: parlamentarias and presidenciales are not fully comparable elections… even if as you mention “chavez made them about himself”… to begin with, in the former 66% of the REP participated… while for comparison in the last presidentials, 75% participated…
it´s easier and more satisfying to shoot the messenger, but at the end of the day it´s the wrong strategy…
This is not a “shoot the messenger” rant. I have serious reservations about this.
Personally, I distrust every pollster in venezuela. Even Consultores 21. This country is in certain degree “unmeasurable” for public opinion polls.
Ok. I´ll try not to take this too personally, even though I am personally involved as a pollster. Saying “this country is in certain degree “unmeasurable” for public opinion polls” is simply false. There are decades of experience in Venezuela that prove just the opposite. The burden of proof of course is always on the polling industry and to a lesser extent the reporters and commentators that refere to public opinion data. But it´s not like surveys have not been discussed at length here in Ccs Chron before. A short while back, Quico posted on Ricardo Sucre´s survey archive; probably the best and easiest way to go back and check what some polling companies have said and how accurate they were.
Indeed, a 2 minute search (including the 1 minute it took to download the file to my PC) produced the following graph:
https://skydrive.live.com/?cid=c3c85cae5fedc6cd#cid=C3C85CAE5FEDC6CD&id=C3C85CAE5FEDC6CD%21469
Simply refer to page 9 and check how Datanalisis has been able to accurately report within a month of every election the 6 major natinoal elections from 2000 to 2009 given a margin of error of around 3%.
No hay peor ciego que el que no quiere ver… una encuesta
I respect your opinion but I don’t share it. This goes well beyond numbers.
at this point, this could go on forever of course… but surely this is not a matter of opinion, but of quantifiable, historically validatable statistical data…
Gustavo, I am usually with you, but again, Keller made a very good argument in 2006 about the “trend” and hidden vote, and he explained the different results he got when polling in a visble and invisible way… he failed terribly and to this day I am extremely wary of his polls, but also of arguments about the hidden vote.
But data is always is conditioned by multiple factors.
In the end, time will tell who’s right and who’s wrong. Even then, my sceptisicm of polls won’t change much.
where’s the other 31%?
No sabe/No contesta/No ha decidido
http://www.elchiguirebipolar.net/12-02-2012/nini-se-pregunta-si-con-elecciones-primarias-tambien-es-obligatorio-ir-a-la-playa/
Basically: Cayo Sombrero or Mochima, there’s the rub.
I find it mind-boggling that close to 1 out of 3 people might not have made up their minds yet. Seriously, people? What is going to take?
A number that large really supports the “hidden vote” theory, to me. I just can’t wrap my head around it otherwise.
My main concern is the seeming drop from previous polls, were HCR was hovering 30%…
Jeffry: those who voted in the primaries were around 17% of the REP total by then.
Bueno, I guess there’s a dissipating bounce at play here…
It’s true that the official campaign hasn’t begun yet, and it ain’t over ’til it’s over and whatnot. But, when should we start worrying? October 7th? Does HRC stand a chance against Chavez or should we cross our fingers and hope that Esteban doesn’t make it?
20 points behind with 5 months to go looks more than daunting. Unless the DNK/DNAs are just hidding their true intentions… straw-clasping… I will now start drinking
This one is is going to be uphill both ways people, with oil at $110ish and the future of the revolution (and in some cases the freedom of some individuals) in play here, they’re not going down without a fight.
You’re right about that.
So the 70-30 landslide seems to be realistic. The 30% that are not favoring either candidate are not votes for Capriles, but should be split between both candidates in the same proportion as in the poll (i.e. 4.3 to 2.6). This is roughly a 70-30 result! Right? Just depressing…
Yes, cpc, it is depressing for you. But you should ask yourself why the vote intention is biased in Chavez’s favor by so much even though this blog has apparently proven that Venezuela is a complete disaster, most youth want to leave and it is the fault of the government during the last five years at least. When you ascertain why it is so then there may be a way to make some upward progress for HCR but if you conclude that you have been led astray based on lies and manipulation in the media for all these years, then there is little chance of closing the breach. With just over 4 and one half months to go, your corner men must already have the towel in their hands…..
Interestingly enough this is precisely what happened in Argentina when CFK buried the opposition in the first round with over 50% of the vote; same thing in Nicaragua, same thing in Ecuador (look at the polls there) and the same thing in Bolivia based on their polls.
Things looking up in SA amirite Arturo?
As usual with pollsters, I’ll take it with a grain of salt…
On one side, I think that oppo is working hard, I mean, the whole lot of people that endured those huge colas at the CNE to get into the RE, well, would they be chavistas they would have it easy, just go to one of the darkest places on Pomona(maracaibo) and you’ll find a CNE machine out there…
On the other one… for each oppo that did the above, how many chavistas got enrolled? the answer is only known to the FSM alone
Those who voted on the primary will certainly vote for capriles, and I’m pretty sure that at least a third of that will vote for capriles this time and didnt vote on the primary because they were afraid of getting fired or never hired, this isnt the right math I know, but let’s say 17+17/3=23 (of course REP has changed, but let’s say that it expanded somewhat equally both ways +-3%ish), so, after three months the oppo only managed to get an extra 6% of the vote? (17 primary +6 nonvoters -3chavistaenrollment), I’m sorry, but nah…
I study at LUZ which is a public university, and in every classroom I have been, out of 40people only between 3-5 are chavistas, that isnt some #meiriademasiado university as the URBE or URU, people of all “socioeconomic levels” go there. Of course, in the Bolivariana or UNEFA would be the other way around, but I highly doubt that it does enough to “cancel” LUZ.
So, nah, I dont buy this number, certainly I wont be doing any marialejandalopecismo by saying us 60% > chavez -40%, but 43 to 26? almost the double? nope, sorry…
So in conclusion, kids, it doesnt matter what I say, what C21 say, or even what #CaracasChroniclesGurus say, GO VOTE AND #BUSKT2!!
:)
OT: Our bella fiscal general said that she’s been monitoring twitter looking for “coupsters” because there are a lot of messages saying “… lo que les espera…” (what is ahead of you) which CLEARLY means oppo is planning a coup
In Gwen Stefani’s words:
It’s bananas, B-A-N-A-N-A-S
Kernel panic,
What’s the percentage of Venezuelans with a university degree or at least attending university? What’s the percentage now of students at public universities that are not “Bolivarianas”? What’s the proportion of them who belong to class C-, D and E?
Most of the people I know well in Venezuela have Internet access and have been abroad. Most Venezuelans haven’t got Internet access or have been abroad.
Beware paying too much attention to your environment
even if whatever you say is false (which is not) an election wont be won in LUZ alone or even between all of the universities in the zulia. It’s just an example :p obviously in barrio patria bolivariana things are different and there are plenty more barrio patrio bolivariana than urbanizacion la virginia :p However, I must add, last year I worked on a commerce census, and no matter where I went, was it the fanciest parts of maracaibo, or some of the worst hellholes unanimously everyone disliked chavez, and Im not talking about big business, just regular people with a sheet of A4 on the front of their houses in shantytown “se vende refresco”, sitting with their comadres at the front door talking about whatever…
The point of my comment was that yes, we’re not majority, but it’s weird that after all this hard work of the oppo the scales have baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaareeeeeeeeeeeeellllllllllllly gone our side and that no matter who is right or who is wrong on this whole pollingnumberosis we have to go to vote. period :).
62,96 % of Marabinos voted for UNT at a time when Chávez was less popular, 1 1/2 years ago.
Greater Maracaibo, Greater Valencia and Greater Caracas do not make Venezuela.
Foronce Kepler you are right but are still holding a vain wish for some miracle to put R the Cuban Embassy attacker in contention. Wishful thinking is a great defense mechanism. The ICS poll just published today gives Chavez a 36% advantage over the aforementioned terrorist in terms of vote intention. Evem reuters published an article today saying that CAPriles campaign was “aburrida y esática”. You have until early June to find a new candidate.
Perhaps you can explain to me why CAPriles was campaigning in Bogotá. Ledezma in Israel and Ramos Allup in Miami?
You
See
Ts
–
Dos observaciones: 1. Habría que ver los detalles de la encuesta (cuestionario, muestra, etc.) para poder hacer un comentario que tenga cierta validez; 2. El nivel de no sabe/no contesta es bastante alto, lo que podría ser un reflejo del “voto oculto” ó simplemente de miedo, una variable que se ha instalado en el panorama político venezolano.
In today’s Venezuela the government blackmails business whenever they feel like it. Datanalisis is a business, and I find it hard to believe that Datanalisis is not receiving any kind of government pressure, and their owners would probably not like to get their business closed. The government has been very good at manipulating every little piece of the society that they need to stay in power, and pollsters would be no exception. That in itself does not mean that Datanalisis rigged this poll, but hey, it’s possible. I find it very hard to believe that Chavez will get a lot more than 60% of the votes in the presidential election, unless this whole sickness thing is creating a wave of sympathy, which I am to frozen-hearted to understand. More and more often I meet disenchanted chavistas, and even the hardcore chavistas feel the revolution is failing on a lot of fronts. These polls are not in tune with the state of the country. In any case, we shouldn’t give up. The law of chavista public management failure reliably predicts new disasters at an ever increasing rate: La planta, derrame de petroleos, el metro de Caracas etc. More and bigger ones will come as we get closer to the elections. Even Chavez’ promises gets old when he has made them enough times and not fulfilled them.
What is even more daunting is that Chavez holds that support and he has had very limited public and media appearances.
Exactly. This poll creates a lot of questions and don’t provide answers.
Every poll in venezuela is doing that for quite a while.
I do not agree with this…he is always present just pay attention of how many times the Government and opposition mention Chavez!
True. Mentioned yes. In headlines yes. But speeches? Spreading charisma? Exciting the crowds? Almost nothing
It is obvious that nobody wants to talk about this, but isn’t Chavez pretty much dead? So what is the point in spending too much time talking about this?
Did you see him dead?
Should people always believe what they see? This discussion could go on forever…
Dejemoslo asi.
For the record, I don’t think Chavez is dead. He will run as Zombie Chavez if he could.
Something interested to think is that in case he lives until October 7, what’s going to happen when the campaign intensifies and if he’s not able to campaign, I mean, right now the campaign is not even started, but when the last few weeks of the campaign come, how is people going to react to having an almost absent candidate, a fact that its going to be much more patent in September than know.
For the record, Gustavo: I haven’t got a clue. We should have a plan B, C, D and E if he dies before October, but anything can happen in Venezuela. As CACR says below, though, it will become interesting if Hugo doesn’t appear more in the last 2 months or so.
Let’s say he has to start appearing outside Caracas from August onwards.
Agree 100 %
Agreed that we must be prepared for every scenario. Anything is possible.
Did you read that someone is investigating Capriles because he’s not spending enough in Miranda working?
People, people. Better than a poll is if you can assess reality with reliable info. There is no way, I repeat, NO WAY, the opposition wont be able pto mobilize at least 6 million votes in Oct 7. I really do not care much about a poll that violates priors in absolut terms if they faild to explain. On OCT7 some 13.5 million will be casted. Do the math. Calm down.
Sorry, my last comment was a rough draft plagued by typos. Anyway, you get the point. 26% would be a monumental collapse of the HCR campaign. I am more than ready to admit we can lose to HCH, but I fail to see the signs of collapse a 26% would be suggesting. All that I see is a energetic very likable candidate, touring deep Venezuela with a message of hope and problem solving. Is it crazy for me to the oppo, better organized, funded and united than ever, will at least mantain its historical ground?…the paranoic equalization Poll=Reality is just not true.
Well sure. It’s just that you’re starting from a low base, and with limited access to media, which makes everything much harder.
Let’s be clear, we have a mountain to climb. Specifically, this mountain: http://www.avn.info.ve/node/101695
Indeed. Haier mata galán.
What Im saying is that to assess reality you have to draw conclusion from all the information available. In time series analisys structural breaks are normal and totally possible, but you have to reason the roots of such changes. I fail to see sign of collapsing of the oppo camp. Or let me put it this way: I have reasons to believe that under no circunstamces HCR will receive less than 44% – 46% of the vote in an participation scenary of 70% to 73%. Maybe I’m wrong and the oppo side can mobilize only the 3 million voters of 12F…but again
So, what you’re saying is that approximately 2/3 of the NS/NC/undecided voters are gonna swing our way. Well, that’s optimistic! At the moment, I think it’s a very uphill race.
Btw, what’s exactly the structural change you’re talking about? That HCR has 26%? I don’t see that as a structural break or collapse. That’s close enough to where the opposition has been all this years. A structural break would be HRC leading the polls.
26% implies 3.4 million votes. After 26S and 12F I would say the oppo camp is in the hood of 6 million votes. 26% will be a structural break from the trend. No doubt
You’re optimistically extrapolating the 12F results. So, your trend is more like an upper-bound to the trend. I’ll hand you that 26% is below the trend (a reasonable one which is below yours) but that doesn’t make it a “structural break”.
Nope. The oppo got 5.7 million votes on 26S
Dude, one data point doesn’t make a trend. I’m excluding the primaries as a data point because it’s hard to extrapolate that particular result to a general election. Yes, you can always make assumptions and give me an equivalent number for the presidential election. However, those assumption will be kind of arbitrary, especially when we can’t even compare to what happened in previous primaries because there hasn’t been any in the Chavez era. Moreover, as some others have pointed out, it’s not straightforward to compare parliamentary elections to presidential ones. In particular, to elections with Chavez as candidate. And finally, on 26S the opposition got 5.3 million votes. Adding the whole PPT’s 350 thousand votes to the opposition is again an optimistic assumption.
According to José Antonio Gil Yépez – Director de Datanalisis – Capriles’ message is perfectly well aimed because 3 out of the 4 main problems people diagnose are economic -inflation, low salaries and unemployment- and they are all almost completely blamed on Chávez. So with “plan empleo” he should be looking better in the polls soon. It would be interesting to see how Manuel Rosales’ approval evolved from the moment he was set to be the candidate to the election. Does anybody have that information?
So, Which one do you trust?.
48% Henrique Capriles,
40% Chávez
http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/106792/predigmatica-simpatia-hacia-chavez-se-debilita-por-su-ausencia/
I rather trust the pollster that I actually know, not one that appear from nowhere and gave a different result that everybody else.
That’s the reality for now.. let’s see what happens in the next few months..campaign has yet to begin
I agree with you about trusting the one you know. Nevertheless the predigmatica guy makes and interesting point. How can capriles be as low as 26% when the oposition has had more than 45% in all the last 4 elections? And for the AN election they’ve got 49.5% without PPT? Really makes you wonder.
Just because someone makes an “interesting point” doesn’t mean he’s right. It’s like saying that because opo got more than 3m votes in february it’s goint to mean than in oct it’s goint to get more than that. Sadly, in politics, you can never predict. And yet again, a poll can ONLY show you what’s happening in a especif period. Not what’s gonna happen 5 month from that measure….
You cannot compare the NOW with what happen in October because we’re in a specific historic moment that we haven’t been ever: a President extremly sick and a contendent that has the entire support of the oposition…
We have to wait and see… and of course, vote.
I’m sorry, it’s an encuestadora de maletín. Embarrassing really.
I guess I am in denial, but he has a point in the issues I previously mentioned.
I know we’re only less than 5 months away from the election, but we’re simply not on election mode. Polls at this time will just not be able to capture vote intention, simply because vote choice is clouded by the uncertainty surrounding Chavez’s participation in the election. We don’t know if he will be fit for the election, or even alive, so in my view pretty much most numbers coming out at this stage offer poor descriptions of the underlying voting preferences, and are poor predictors of how people would eventually vote (October 7 or else).
Chavez has 60% support, because 80% of the population lives in poverty
and their only hope is a government handout.
Capriles is in a “Catch 22″ he’s making promises to be a better Chavez,
keeping the missions, etc.
And now the poor are being asked to give-up someone,
who has done something for them, however badly against a person of a
perceived class that did little for them but enrich themselves,
Its as if a woman is being asked to give-up her husband who drinks and carouses,
but still supports her and her children, for a man who comes to her door with flowers.
An interesting point: Chávez’ cancer sets the agenda, and gobbles up any of Capriles’ actions.
“La campaña meticulosamente planeada por la oposición no logra distraer la atención del tema que lo devora todo: la batalla de Chávez contra el cáncer en una cada vez más surrealista carrera para las elecciones del 7 de octubre.
El mayor anuncio político de Capriles hasta la fecha- la promesa de crear 3 millones de empleos en seis años- tuvo poca presencia en los titulares de diarios y en las conversaciones callejeras, que se nutren en forma obsesiva de los rumores acerca del tratamiento de Chávez en Cuba”.
http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/106783/reuters-capriles-radonski-intenta-acortar-la-brecha-que-lo-separa-de-chavez/
Exactly. The burgeoning narrative does not focus on the run-up to presidential elections, but on whether Chavez will survive cancer + a potential transition time that would involve elections (who knows if on October 7). There’s little Capriles can do to change this, so we shouldn’t blame him. Given the circumstances, probably his best bet is to go on doing what he’s been doing until now.
Agree.
I see an enormous amount of energy and motivation in the guy and his team. I really can’t see what’s to be changed. He doesn’t have access to media, so he’s doing the casa por casa thing; what else can he do?
Bottom line, if Venezuelans are happy with Chávez, even if it’s a totally screwed up, onclocratic exercise of power, there’s nothing to be done. The cards are on the table. If 43% of the people are still happy with Chávez, then what’s to be assesed is our system of representation, not the candidates per se, IMHO.
It’s hard, it’s hard, but we can see how things can be improved.
1) the top 5 of every party should start going around Venezuela talking to people as he is doing. This is more customary in parliamentarian systems but even in places with a strong presidential system people do this. Capriles needs more help from the others.
2) massive distribution of flyers, specially on buses departing from main hubs. This has been done tentatively and in a clumsy fashion: everybody with PJ shirts, going slowly around one bus terminal, almost “inviting” Chavita thugs to attack them. You need to do it in a flash mob fashion: strike, disappear. Flyers need to have target messages for those people going to Maturín, Acarigua, etc.
3) Adapt your message. This is something Caraquenos and most Valencianos and Marabinos don’t see so urgent but it is. You need to talk about local issues. There is no Venezuela. There are Venezuelan regions. Venezuela is more local than Germany and yet people from Caracas talk as if they were Germans who had never left Berlin and were trying to do politics in Stuttgart or Cologne.
You need to talk about the local problems, the local myths, the local history (in a general sense, I am not talking about when Bolivar farted in Guárico but about the socioeconomic evolution of the state, something even very humble people in the region may know something about).
4) It is rubbish you cannot improve oratory skills in such a time. You need to start now. And when you do, you can instead of spending 20 minutes per house in Maturín, go to one area there and talk to people in a square and get 500 people to hear you and then go to another square and so on.
5) You need to tell stories, not flashes of vision. You need, by using words, to take the listeners with you to a more concrete and better Venezuela .
All that can be concluded from the poll is that Venezuela is not yet a completely screwed up nation of ignoramuses. However you could say the country is 74% along that path.
Not until the journey is 100% complete will Venezuela appreciate the need to grow a pair of balls.
Mr. Toro, about the photo-very funny in a strange way.
But (no pun intended), are you implying Capriles has no chance?
If tiny dude punches snorlax in the pokeballs, tiny dude wins :)
I am as big as the tiny dude and I will not punch I will grab and squeeze!
Get these people on the campaign team!
BTW, where is micomandantepresidente? He said in his last telephone call from Cuba “regreso en pocos dias” and el aissami later said “le esperamos en unas horas.” That was many days ago. In response to Herr Kepler’s question above, “Have you seen him alive?,” or even “Have you seen him upright and walking lately?” As Capriles pointed out, if Hugito is well enough to play bolas criollas in La Habana (I guess there is still one Venezuelan export other than oil left), why is he not back convalescing in Venezuela? Can’t wait to see if micomandantepresidente can walk down the airstairs at Maiquetia, but I’m guessing they’ll figure out away around that as well. Anyway, maybe all this angst about encuestas will be for naught. I’m just saying…..
Now I have one reason to fervently wish that Hugo Chavez passes away before elections… if I am to believe these and similar poll numbers. It’s not that I hate Hugo Chavez personally. It’s not that I would claim to never have done something quite idiotic.
But please, Nature, spare this country of mine definitive proof that the adult population has a solid majority of complete, utter and irreversible IMBECILES. Namely, REELECTING a DYING AUTOCRAT. Who, and with his followers have made clear that AFTER HIM, THE DELUGE.
All of you – this comment by loboferoz is precisely why CAPriles is down around 25% vote intention since the majority of Venezuelans who are not well off sense this attitude from CAPRILES an ex sifrino and neo Nazi in his younger day.
All the whining, unnecessary criticism, lies, manipulation, fear mongering in the 85% of the media you control have come back to bite you in the a** exactly as happened with CFK in Argentina. Sorry to repeat myself but this is so true but no one on this blog has the courage to admit it.
loboferiz – even if Chavez dies his replacement (does not matter who it is) will win against CAPriles just on the sympathy vote for the revolution as requested by Chavez on his death bed.
However,based on information available there is no sign of him laeving us yet sdo what is the point of this necrophiliac speculation which just drives more votes over to the pSUV side? Can you not see this staring you in the face?
neo Nazi? Hahaha and a Zionist too right?
I am going to refrain of acting as a decent human being here. How on earth, you shit-head, have the gall to call HCR a Neo-Nazi. Do you have any proof? The real Nazi is your cancer-ambulante. All the signs and behaviors are there. Of course, you wouldn’t acknowledge this because you would endanger your paycheck. Read this very carefully: the nightmare will be over sooner or later, and when it does, you and your ilk will pay dearly. As surely as you breathe.
My comment is mine. It’s not Capriles’s, nor of the MUD. We, the opposition, are just opposed to an autocracy with a scrambled ideology taking over the country completely and making life hell for whoever does not submit to his “perico revuelto” of ideas. We, differently from Chavistas, do not play at pretending to share a hive mind.
That I know, Capriles never donned some military style tunic or regalia, armbands, or weapons like swords or rifles, and did never speak mottoes featuring death oaths, nor supported an authoritarian ideology or leadership beyond any appeal by one person. Curiously, these things can be said of Chavez (after he purportedly became “civilian”) and his followers.
However, I might be wrong on Hugo Chavez’s health right now, who knows with no information forthcoming. But did Teodoro dub the man prophetically! Chacumbele indeed. Ff Chavez was not already seriously ill on May 2011, his unchanging attitude and activities made him a very seriously ill man in February 2012. If, even IF, he is not a dying man now, the insistence on campaigning will make him a dying man by October, or later, who knows.
Thus, if this guy insists on going on, please Nature, spare us the ridicule and the absurd.
As for the successor winning, anybody can dream.
I’m opting to remain optimistic.
As I said many times before, there are many fear factors playing a role here, and a sample of 1,300 people in a country where there is so much variety of people (rich urban, poor urban, middle in big cities, middle in small towns, rich countryside, poor countryside, etc, etc) I believe is too small.
Fear factor.
Carolina – http://www.europapress.es/latam/venezuela/noticia-venezuela-ultima-encuesta-oficial-otorga-chavez-ventaja-40-puntos-capriles-20120505180648.html
If you go to this page you can see a composite of all the polls in English since January 2012 -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2012#Opinion_polling
Don’t shoot the messenger!!
Arturo, where do i apply for your job? I want to be your colleage.
Directly on the Cuban Embassy? Sebin Website? I could use the money, im unemployed you see?
The problem is the media. It is like the media does not want to show Capriles, even during the primaries, other candidates like MCM or DA got more coverage.
I am truly believing the media is trying to sabotage Capriles election. I don’t know why.
I can think of a bunch of reasons.
Who knows…
Like what they’re doing to Ron Paul in America?
They’re obsessed with Chavez illness, like most of the Venezuelans are. After all, he is the de facto king of Venezuela without a clear successor. Chavez is a diva a la Kardashian and the press is glad to give him the attention for all the wrong reasons.
I have to agree with Mr. Toro on that: Venezuelan Media is in a dire state, mostly because of his obsession with Chavez and his antics. Yes, Chavez is the president, but not every stupid sentences coming out of his mouth is newsworthy.
O/T but I wonder..who is the fattest person in VZ now? I know there are many more in
US. Also, obesity trends are going through the roof in VZ past few years.
Which is the “fattest city” in Venezuela. I bet Mr. Kepler has the answer.
I don’t mean to offend anyone.
http://now.msn.com/now/0511-40-pound-toddler.aspx
In Bush Vs Gore, on an intellectual level everyone would
have voted Gore, but on a who would you like to have a beer
with Bush won hands down. In a country with a population
who’s average education is primarily, that becomes the only criteria.
I believe I heard that Bush got more women votes. Maybe they liked Gore on an
intellectual level,but were they attracted to Bush in other ways.
Matter of fact, Clinton got far more women votes and
so did Obama I think…
Based on that speculation- I don’t see how Capriles can lose?
Hello? You guys are knocking yourself out trying to parse this crock of shit? Are you klidding me?
Assuming for a few seconds that Luis Vicente Leon is an honest pollster (which I don’t — just last year this market researcher — who doesn’t even own Datanálisis — made an offer on a house that was up for sale for the asking price of $2 million in the Country Club — if anybody has any doubts about this, ask Diego Arria, he has the information first-hand from the seller), there are two built-in methodological errors that are skewing the results towards Chávez.
One is the fact that both the 2010 census and the REP are orchestrated by the government to absorb the 3 to 5 million phantom voters that the CNE has surreptitiously registered into the rolls since 2003. Do the math. Between 2003 and 2012 the population grew by 14%. And in that same time the Registro Electoral Permamente grew by 58%. Anybody see anything wrong with this picture!
That means that there are up to 5 million non-existent zombie-virtual voters registered in Chavez-friendly urban precincts and rural areas where Chavez either has a lot of sway or controls the voting centers. Either way, if you build your sample upon a skewed population distribution that favors Chavez voters, you’re going to get strongly pro-Chavez skewed results. In common parlance it’s called garbage in, garbage out.
Two, Doug Schoen’s polling in 2006 proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that a fear factor is built into current Venezuelan poll results that derive from traditional door-to-door polling, (regardless of what Edmond Saade or other defenders of the faith have to say about the matter) or worse, telephone polling (yes, Oscar Schemel, telephone polling is wiorthless in Venezuela). I refer the interested reader to an article I wrote on the subject: http://porlaconciencia.com/?p=3458 . You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that in a dictatorship that punishes its detractors, a significant percentage (Schoen calculated it at 14% in 2006 — I’d say it’s closer to 20% today) of people aren’t going to tell what they really feel to a total stranger who comes up to their door, says he’s from a polling company, and asks them if they’re planning on voting for the president, for godssakes.
So you figure corruption, plus unreliable sampling methodology, plus the fear factor, and you’ve got a totally distorted view of politics through Venezuelan polling.
If the fear factor ALONE today is 20 points, then according to this poll Chavez has 33% and Capriles 36%. And 31% who are scared to death to tell the pollster who they’re planning on voting for — we’ll call them undecideds. Now that’s more like it.
Quico and company, get it through your heads, as much as you dislike to face the facts: Chavez lost the 2004 RR by 56% to 44%, according to the Febres Cordero-Márquez forensic reconstruction of that election, as written up in their landmark 2006 International Statistical Review journal article (http:/bit.ly/gFZela), and chavismo has been a minority force in Venezuelan politics ever since. If it weren’t for massive, systemic vote fraud at the pollls for the past 8 years, the bastards would’ve been voted out of office a long time ago.
You hit one of the nails sir,
We all talk polls,going to the poorest rural areas in Venezuela to campaign,talk about this,that, smile,charisma, etc. But you kind of forget CNE is also in Chavez’s hand.
Now, what chance is there to win an election on a country where the votes are manipulated? It’s Cuba,Syria or Lybia. wich one will it be?
Cope with reality instead of dreaming tortuous speculations !
Well, I have to say the whole REP is really full of shit.
Here you have a chart I did with the information from the government on total population, voters and non voters still to register:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W_0stXXkqx8/T43JCKNHU_I/AAAAAAAACA8/FC7byYij1Ok/s1600/cnevoters.png
How can it be possible that only about 3% of the people of voting age are not registered and yet abstention levels in Venezuela are much higher than in any comparable country?
Quico will use this or that country to point at the fact abstention there is lower…but the registration system is completely different. It’s as if Venezuelans are OBSESSED with registering to vote, but they don’t go to vote…unless perhaps CNE’s voting machines need their virtual votes.
There are over 35000 persons with the same full name and birthday. That is NOT possible. You can have sometimes two José Luis Pérez Pérez being born in the same day but most of the record is with very strange names: first name, “middle” name, first surname and second surname are all from the least frequent and yet you have two people.
You also have the October protuberance: from 1966 numbers for voters born in October started to swell…until in 1976 they were making up 20% of the births of that year.
Even in countries with important fluctuations because of the season (Canada) that does not happen. In Venezuela it only happened from 66 until 76…in 77 you have, like from 1870 to 1966 and since 1977 a normal distribution (1, 2% less or more). I talked about this with a professor specialist in population statistics in Venezuela (Bolivar, from the UCV) and he said indeed this is just wrong, not even by having Roman orgies would you have such disparities.
Eric, you write well but I know it’s more complicated than you say. Then you mention Schoen and don’t mention las maquinitas (nor the upgrade) to mention a few. THe opposition lost the RR. When you can star understanding this, your mind will be free….lol
My father always used to say Venezuela is a very strange country composed of a very selfish society. I never understood what he meant by this until a few years ago: crime surged, multinationals fled, tons of friends departed and you would still see a Chavez with 45% or higher acceptance. It made me realize that the problem with Venezuela is not Chavez or his dictatorship, it’s us Venezuelans.
And did he tell you why they were so selfish ?
No, just the general statement, he didn’t want to share that knowledge even with his own son…:-)
We Venezuelans have no idea what building a nation means, never had. To do so it takes a cohesive society working together and doing sacrifices to reach equal objectives. We Venezuelans only care about ourselves and what we can extract from the country, after all, we are a mining nation. So populist autocrats like Chavez come along and people vote for him not because of his merits to lead the country but for the benefits they’ll reap by voting for him.
If it weren’t for the influence of multinationals and nation-states, Venezuela would be an Adam Smith anarchist paradise.
Right now, I think a lot of people are hedging their bets. They despise the regime, but it is the hand that feeds. I think that history shows that at a certain point, the taste becomes too foul. The opposition has to show people their courage.
Here is my comment:
The above mentioned poll by Datanalisis has several interesting things to look at. In addition to the 25% number given to HCR not making too much sense, that poll shows a margin of only 50-20 in the AB sectors in favor of HCR. Is that what you would expect to find? How many votes do Baruta and El Hatillo Oppo Mayors usually get?
Datanalisis poll of last December, 1 month before the primaries, showed a margin of only 7% between HCR and PP, to then widen the margin to more than 25% one month after. I don’t know you, but I find those swings suspitious.
Their excuse for the 13% margin of the previous poll was that many maracuchos that voted for PP were now Ni-Nis, not ready to vote for HCR. Sorry, but don’t believe it.
Last but not least, Datanalisis is the “creator” of the Ni-Nis term. They have to defend their Ni-Nis, they always have a larger percentage of Non-decided.
At the end, I will trust Datanalisis poll but only the one in late August or September, when we are close to the election.
I hate to break it to you guys but this poll has AD signature all over it… they are trying to get some leverage now that they went underworld thanks to the primary in the last february. It’s not coincidence that Allup’s been hovering in the media in the last two weeks.
Besides this poll doesn’t make any sense. So I wouldn’t worry about it. Since anybody can write anything on the paper.
For GOD’s sake people, no poll in Venezuela is reliable at this point. So quit this telenovela and get over it. Last time I checked the MUD got 5.3 million of votes. How come that the amount of votes is decreasing now in this crucial moment for the country. Use that thing over your head.
Use that thing over your shoulders :)
Congrats, you’ve identified legs number 5, 6, 7 and 8 on the cat.
Again anybody can write anything on the paper… I just believe in historical data in the last elections not polls.
I didn’t write anything here, because I’m puzzled about this “results”. I was thinking, could it really be? (I’m only a follower at the distance of the venezuelan situation).
Maybe it is really all due to money, the government buying good percentages to bring the people to think, ok, it will be Chávez again and either not voting or voting for him (or going to a maximum then he nominates a candidate due to the illness, so no risk of getting caught with false numbers). It doesn’t goes in line with the real votes in former elections. I am very optimistic or totally “alienado”? Maybe too inclined to believe in conspiracies? Well, take a look at this if you can read spanish, it is in Aporrea and from somebody who doesn’t write against Chávez (you could google for former publications) and clearly is not writing positive for the opposition…
Si la calle habla estamos perdidos http://www.aporrea.org/actualidad/a143372.html
“El título es pedante, pero no embuste. “Algo me huele mal en Dinamarca”, cuando yo no veo en las calles una emoción tan inmensa para creernos boyantes hacia el 07 de Octubre. Veo sí, una oposición solapada; esperando como que den el pitazo para “esmachetarse” a votar por Capriles.
Y mis reservas son más, cuando me paro a analizar el universo electoral de los “Nuevos Votantes”: Chicos de 18 a 24 Años, que abrazan una “Antipolítica” impresionante; por lo que lo único que los mueve es un desprecio supino hacia el gobierno”…
Also the insistence attacking Capriles, at the same time saying he is doing so bad, that he would be replaced, that is too strange for me. I think the opposition should stick to Capriles, do the work to do and the election is very probably to be won, despite of all the unfair actuations. And probably not against Chávez…
http://yvpolis.blogspot.com/2012/04/los-errores-de-las-encuestas-para-las.html