Slides! Slides! Piping hot Datanalisis slides! Get your slides right here! (link now fixed – oops!)
FWIW, Datanalisis also has HCR beating the panoply of imaginable dauphins, though by smaller margins:
- Capriles is up 33.4% to 29.5% vs. Jaua
- He’s up 33.7% to 23.3% vs. Maduro
- He beats Godgiven Hair by a meaty 34.4% to 20.4%.
Nice.
“THE KEYS SOAP” company regrets to announce the cancellation of their course, “POLLING CLEANLINESS: You Know You Can Do It”, owing to a lack of applicants.
I believe in one of your previous Bloomberg links they gave Godgiven Hair a tepid endorsement from the business community; something like “..he knows how to count” or something to that effect.
DIOSDADO: El sabe contar. That’s material for a bumpersticker.
Keep it simple I always say.
If the rumors are true, Diosdado is the boliburgues who better knows how to count.
“Smarter than Carla Angola”
OUCH!
That was unexpected.
For the record, I’m not a huge fan of Buenas Noches, but mostly for Kiko IMHO.
I tune it sometimes, but only the first half hour. For the newspapers headlines mostly.
I did not know her last name was Angola. Enough with the crazy names already.
I’m sorry, the quote was that he knows how to talk, not that he knows how to count:
“Business leaders see Cabello as more of a pragmatist than the civilian, pro-Cuban wing of the government. In 1999, as chief telecommunications regulator, he ended Cia. Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela’s monopoly on fixed-line phone service.
“People in business felt that Cabello was someone they could talk with,” said Rodriguez, who was an economic adviser to Venezuela’s congress from 2000 to 2004. “While I don’t think that’s currently the case it does appear to illustrate less of an ideological strain of thinking.”
End quote.
He knows how to talk? How to threat is more accurate.
I can think of several words to sum up the phrase “less of an ideological strain of thinking” in this instance.
“Godgiven Hair, your in-for-the-money guy”
Truth be told, it has been bruited about that he’s accumulated very substantial counting experience.
I’m having a hard time to get pass through the Godgiven Hair thing. I just can’t stop laughing.
The link doesn’t furulate (Take you to No Al Control FB page).
Godgiven would be a godsend for us.
Wait, so chavismo’s best candidate if the inevitable happens is … Jaua?!
Oh man, they are in trouble.
They don’t have anyone else.
Jaua. Godgiven Hair. Manduro. Oh man.
Exactly. If those are their best choices… they’re quite screwed.
How about Chavez’s daughters? Nobody polls about them…
I believe one of them -Rosa Elena, perhaps- will be anointed as heir.
Like North Korea? Not surprising whatsoever.
They’re not 35 yet!
Kim Jong-un is just 28. He’s younger than me. FWIW, he’s getting helped by his uncle.
Is that the minimum age to be president per the Constitution? (like in the U.S.)
Or just a general (valid) objection?
30 years old. Article 227
article 227 is another sheet of toilet paper, only good for one thing, before throwing it away.
There’s no Rosa Elena. Rosa Virginia and Maria Gabriela. I would bet on the second one.
Por eso es que Chavez va a ser el candidato aunque lo tengan que embalsamar y ponerle unas baterias para moverlo…sorry this only sounds good in Spanish!
Weekend at Hugo’s, starring Danny Glover as Hugo, Sean Penn as Jaua, and Jimmy Kimmel as Diosdado (not that Kimmel is a chavista, but he looks like he could be Godgiven’s son.)
Juan, I make the same comment I was making a few posts back.
We should not dismiss those candidates as being absolutely unlikely of beating Capriles: they have not started their campaign!
What it is amazing is that even without a campaign the difference with Capriles is in the 10%. To me that is worrisome.
I hope the people in the Capriles band understand that and start doing something about it.
They’re too many reasons to explain this: Sympathy/Pity with Chavez after his relapse, the massive public spending, the whole unfairness of the campaign (Chavez has the whole State working for him) and the effects of communicational hegemony (HCR can’t get his message through because of it).
The point is the Comando Tricolor is doing the best they can, but it won’t be enough. The reason is beyond obvious: This is not a standard campaign, where an equilibrium exists for all candidates: rules for access, chances of debate, respect for the adversary. Henrique is not just running against Hugo Chavez and the PSUV, he’s running against the Bolivarian Republic: the government, the justice system, the armed forces and even the electoral council itself. Let’s not fool ourselves here. It’s not Henrique’s fault.
This is not a fair game, but that’s the rules we were given, so let’s play and do their best. So far, he’s doing fine. Remember Yogi Berra: “The game’s isn’t over until it’s over.”
I share some of Bruni’s concerns. The Capriles camp needs to ramp up its game and try to get its narrative established more firmly.
That’s a fair concern.
It ain’t over till the fat lady with the funny hairdos sings
Hey, guys: as far as I know Chávez is alive!
He is dead when he is dead. Before he is dead, he is alive and we better count on that…until he is proven dead.
He will run even if he’s dead. Zombie Chavez 2012!
Zombies and aliens only appear on US soil. As well as serial killers and crime. That’s why they have such a high murder rate…
The Cubans just had their own zombie invasion.
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_de_los_Muertos
So did the Brits some years ago.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaun_of_the_Dead
They had vampires in Habana
They even had a Sith Lord visiting a few days ago.
Por ahorra…
What about a family member?
Same holy blood, easy to control by whoever Chavez chooses.
I don’t mean Adán either, I mean like a non-politician.
Yes, we forgot Adan. There’s a force of nature to be reckoned with.
Could you imagine five hours of Alo Presidente Maduro en cadena?
Chavez = Buen Administrador. PLOP
In Venezuela, giving money away like crazy is equal to a good administration. I am dissapoint.
Like I´ve said before… Las he vista más feas y se han casado, It´s gonna be a very though race if it´s Chavez or any of his dauphins.
Regarding the comments about Diosdado, he certainly is a pragmatist. Even after being publicly humiliated and insulted by Chávez after losing Miranda to HCR, he never replied but soon after was named MPPP Infraestructura y vivienda, the perfect place for a “guisero”, and until Chávez´s sickness came out he remained relatively low key and suddenly got bumped to President of the NA. He knows his way around “el chavismo” very well…
In another note, Chávez has been strongly criticized by thinking “chavistas” like El Gato Briceño for his complacencies with Diosdado after being a shitty governor and losing an extremely important state with the national budget at his disposal for propaganda and buying opposition candidates to break “la unidad” like in municipio Zamora.
Love that ‘furulate’ reference: fortunately, it turns out to be regular so, Furulo: furulas: furulat: furulamus; furulatis; furulant: The pluperfect is different, of course.
Joe the SteelyChap was only concerned about counting when it came to ‘who counts the votes’: why all this hollerin’ about manifestly kneadable polling – hence, ultimately, vote – differences and no comment on just how un-kneadable the outcome would have to be to deprive any locally occurring very expert kneaders of their prey?
Chinese, Russian and Isleño stakes (and they’re the ones we know about) are almost unimaginably high prompting the possible emergence of jaundiced views of how the ‘will of the people’ is expected to be limpidly processed for final announcement.
Curious that the perception of Radonski’s and Chavez’s charisma , which is key to this demagogue-loving country, is pretty much the same. This comes as a shock, since the campaign led by the Midnight Prowler of VTV is that Capriles is pretty much stupid and unable to talk properly (among the fact that he’s a nazi-jew -if the guy who coined the term oxymoron could only hear that-, millionaire, foreign agent, and one long and seemingly never ending etcetera).
Another thing, which Luis Vicente León was keen on pointing out, is the percentage of undecided voters. This coming full circle with what was written a couple of posts ago on this website.
So, according to Datanalisis, 44% want Chavez reelected (48% if you consider only likely voters), yet 81% are against the Cuban model!!
I need to shoot myself in the head. Anyone got a gun?
What you need is to know that there exists no good or wise way to oppress upon other persons’ rights. Democracy is intrinsically no better, more consistent or wiser itself than divine right of rulers or divination of entrails.
The thing that is wrong with this picture is that the Cuban model, or anything even remotely like it, or even the first steps towards it, could conceivably be imposed legally. Even “democratically”.
So the DAtanalilsis survey mentions ProArca architects, giving them an advertising plug. How nice. The population number was 1,300. How puny. The survey notes that it took place “en hogares”. But it plays coy as to where those “hogares” are. In sum, just another bagatelle to distract our collective attentions and provide a few tiny bones on which to construct a story, and to make it more important than it really is. Zzzzzz. I’ll pass. Unbelievable the gullibility of some.
Adios coroto now Syd’s some sort of polling expert…
Yeah, it takes genius to know what makes for a significant sampling size. ..Try another one.
:-)
Sorry Syd but all the snark in the world can’t cover up for the fact that you manifestly haven’t the least fucking clue what you’re talking about.
A sample of 1300 on a REP of 18 million gives you a margin of error less than 2.72%, 19 out of 20 times, which is perfectly standard in opinion polling. http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
Snark? Look at yourself in the mirror, Quico.
The sampling size is just one of several observations. Here’s a hint, not from me, but from the same source you provided:
The confidence interval calculations assume you have a genuine random sample of the relevant population. If your sample is not truly random, you cannot rely on the intervals.
But hey, I’m not stopping you from your titillation at the massage table. Knock yourself out. Just don’t go nuts when certain readers don’t buy the trinkets and beads from pollsters who don’t fully reveal their sampling information. Genius.
I guess revealing those details can play two ways. One if you reveal them you increase your credibility with that 0.0001% of the world that understands that. The only use for Datanalisis would be that, to increase their credibility. Now, number two is simple, why would they reveal some of their trade expertise if they already have the credibility of 99.9999%.
At the end you must see polls as their are. A probable estimate. And estimate because it can never get the exact values and probable because it is bounded by the laws of statistics. That is that six sigma events are not likely to happen but they do exist.
I think understanding appropriate polling techniques is important, but not necessary to form an opinion. Datanalisis and C21 have a track record. Which probably means that they know what they are doing, they have proven processes and quality controls and that they deliver a consistent product.
I don’t need to know how Polar made each batch of beer. I know they have the right procedures and that the variation from batch to batch will be minimal, because they have a track record of being reliable. But Polar is also bound to the laws of statistics and if I sample enough batches of beer, one of them will be foul.
Normally, firms doing market research and polls don’t reveal much, if any metrics about their sample. Here’s a perfect example why. For about 10 years, I somehow landed on a call database for market research testing. And periodically — almost every few months, I’d get a call and have to answer preliminary questions. Based on that, I would either be accepted or rejected for the second tier: further discussions at a specific site office. Their conference room, where the dicussions on product ‘X’ were held, had a two-way mirror. Following our contribution, we’d get a little stipend. The demographics of the group, discussing product ‘X’ would be fairly homogenous, save for gender.
That’s why when Chigüire Bipolar satirized polling firms, they weren’t so far off. I strongly suspect that for this latest
advertising opportunity for the architectspoll, Datanalysis’ demographics are fairly consistent with their previous efforts.Genuine random sample? Sí, como no…
syd,
it’s obvious that the slides are part of a deck that was presented to one of DA’s clients that somehow leaked into the public domain. Not a ‘for-public-release” report. When clients purchase an omnibus survey (a tracking poll that is subscribed by several clients), they usually examine the sample design before signing the contract, with no need to go over sample technicalities over and over again (particularly when presentations are given in-person, likes seem to be the case here). So, if anyone, it should be DA’s client complaining about the technical fact sheet being incomplete. Had this been a “for-public-release” report otro gallo cantaria, though. DA would certainly be at fault for not being terribly explicit
I don’t get it. One day, we are talking about how useless are polls, specially 6 months before the elections (since most people decide 2 weeks, or even 2 days prior to voting). Now, we are happy because HCR can beat Jaua or Godgiven?. This numbers now are completely worthless (for predicting the final result, I mean), and it isn’t because “we” are winning or losing. It’s because the scenario is allways changing.
Polls:Political Junkies that inhabit CCS Chronicles::Baloney:Dogs
There, that is what is called a nutshell.
They can’t help it, AJ.
I wouldn’t say they are useless. They are measuring the current state. It is telling us that we need to get our act together and do something to revert those numbers.
Another poll.
http://economia.noticias24.com/noticia/96957/venezuela-entre-los-diez-primeros-paises-mas-prosperos-del-mundo-segun-una-encuesta-internacional/
I don’t understand how “people-don’t-know-better” translates into “prosperity”. That’s why I personally take polls with a grain of salt.
Wait, wait, wait… the poll is from two years ago? TWO YEARS AGO?
And it is news NOW? Putting the fact that is from 2010 in the HEADLINE.
Can’t tell if trolling or just thinking we’re that stupid. #Noticias24MEGAFAIL
actually, GEHA, I think what noticias 24 has done is rather wonderful, albeit simplistic. It goes directly to the credibility of pollsters, even Gallup, when readers scratch their heads, wondering what Galllup was smoking. That is, if these same readers believe the theoretical pap on sampling.
You see, I didn’t even notice that. I just read “prosperous of the world” and the kind of questions they were asking: are you happy? are you struggling? And that type of thing, and I passed.