Bloomberg (again, kudos Corina and Daniel) is reporting the latest Datanálisis numbers. Datanálisis, as you know, is one of the two pollsters Caracas Chronicles trusts on Venezuela.
Datanálisis has Chávez leading Capriles by 13 percentage points, 44 to 31. When sampling likely voters, the numbers are 48 to 35.
It’s worth pointing out that Datanálisis has a large number of undecided voters, or people who simply don’t want to answer. That could point to problems with the way the question was framed, or with the poll itself. Or it could simply be a reflection of people not having made up their minds.
It’s also worth pointing out that large numbers of undecideds appears to be a feature of Datanálisis polls, but that Datanálisis and C21 tend to converge once election time nears.
At any rate, those are the numbers as of now. Nobody said it would be easy.
I still remember Luis Vicente Leon in the Parlamentarias… How many Diputados did he say we would have 40 to 60? -I´m sorry, I just have a hard time in believing what Cara de Queso says… He is really inconsistent IMHO.
+1
Shoot the messenger Feto! Shoot him straight in the head!
Actually, we have some loyal readers inside Datanálisis, people whom we trust a lot, so I put Datanálisis and C21 on the same level.
Polls are small reflections of a specific time and place and these can change very quickly. Anyone remember Nicaragua’s 1991 presidential elections? I think it was like 60/40 in favor of Daniel Ortega and…it was correct. Except those numbers were reversed against Daniel. So this may be accurate, it may not be, it may be accurate but not final, who knows. The point is that there’s still six months left before the elections so there’s enough time to either administer a good thrashing come election day or receive one in turn.
I was an official observer at the Nicaraguan elections in 1991. You are quite correct that Daniel Ortega led in every poll, and that the streets were awash with pro-Sandinista t-shirts and caps, and the Nicaraguan media was filled with pro-Daniel propaganda to the exclusion of anything else. The opposition had one newspaper to Ortega’s two national papers, and all the tv stations.
Then the candidate of the United Opposition won by 12 points.
Was Jimmy Carter present?
Just asking, just asking. Don’t look at me like that.
Not quite every Poll. Gallup was actually the only one to predict the triumph of Violeta Chamorro
If Datanalisis and C21 are on the same level, how do you reconcile the difference? They both can’t be right, so who do you believe?
1 in 20 polls are off by more than the 95% margin of error – actually, that’s a tautology.
So either IVAD and Datanalisis are both 1-in-20 outliers, or C21 is.
Or none of them is.
In one comment, you have just nullified the importance of two of CCs last three posts.
I mean, I do get that the data on trends and regional breakdowns are actually more important, at the moment, then the aggregate numbers, but it still has to make you question the methodology.
You add them up and divide the result by 2.
Wee joke, wee joke, wee joke.
It would be nice to hear about the geographic distribution.
From the C21 slides we’ve all seen there’s no way to know what question wording they used that produced the tied result. So we don’t know if we’re comparing apples to apples.
I’ll say that the current Datanalisis numbers are in my view more realistic that the ones of IVAD or Hinterlaces. The pseudo-pollsters don’t count.
Coño, que manera de no querer aceptar noticias excepto las que favorecen…Cuantos años tenemos en esto?
The poll results are disheartening but I rather know where I’m standing than live in an illusion. This is going to be uphill. Little money, little exposure.
Nada… each of us have to help articulate and disseminate the opposition’s message and attempt to convince or at least make 1-2 of those undecided think and take pause.
Who are you going to convince that hasn’t been convinced in 14 years?
If we consider the results from the likely voters (48% to 35%), Chavez only needs to grab an extra 2% from the undecided in order to win, which shouldn’t be too hard, especially considering that HCR needs to grab an extra 15% from those. The difference is too big if you ask me.
I don’t know if Datanalisis can be trusted or not. As a matter of fact, I tend to distrust ALL pollsters, but if Datanalisis is right, then it is not just that “Nobody said it would be easy” as in the title, it will be basically IMPOSSIBLE.
If after all the things that have happened during the last six years (Increase in criminality, violations of the constitution, uncontrollable inflation, deterioration of infrastructure including the electric system, rampant corruption including 30 billion $ missing in Fonden, etc. etc.) the number are still like that, then I don’t know what you can do to reverse them.
In the end, it depends of the connection between Chavez and his followers: either emotional or financial. In most cases, both.
Another element to consider and remember: The campaign isn’t equal whatsoever. Who has unlimited resources, a full 24/7 propaganda structure and the entire state at his disposal. I’ll give people a hint: It’s not Henrique.
Exactly! How the hell do you reverse those numbers under such a scenario?
As JC says, nobody said it would be easy. But it can be done.
Ok, then, let’s sell all and get out. There is nothing to do here. Let’s give up, right now. With that mentality there is certainly no hope.
Look I understand the frustration. If we lose 7O (particularly if we lose big) then I will be firmly on your side. But I think we owe it to ourselves to give this 6 months of effort. We can’t give up now with the best chance we’ve had in years.
I personally know young people that I will have to push to get them to vote. Like most young ones, a lot of them just don’t seem to give a damn.
I also know Chavistas that I know I can talk to. I don’t know if I will convince them but I sure as hell will try.
Look, this is going to be hard. We will have to get off our butt. It’s so easy to do nothing. Some times I think that we only want to believe the good news because that implies no effort is required, that we can win doing nothing. Think again.
Well, as your comment points to, you will not only have to convince many of the still undecided voters, but also quite a few chavistas, because Chavez is way too close to the 50% threshold.
What are you going to tell them that they haven’t heard already?
You have to also take into account that you are not the only one who is going to talk to them, and the other side has a lot more resources…
I guess my frustration comes from the fact that after all the crap that has happened in the last six years, it shouldn’t be such an uphill battle. But ok, I don’t want to instill pessimism in anybody. I just would like to know of a sensible strategy that has a chance of changing
the current situation, but maybe this is better kept secret by the HCR side, if such a strategy actually exists.
I don’t know that the results are that disheartening. The trend is what counts in an electoral race that still has six months to go. And the gap seems to be narrowing. Six months prior to the election in 1998 Irene Saez was beating the crap out of everyone. Then Chavez caught fire in the last three months and we all know the result. Whether Capriles can get in a similar roll is still a question.
Datanalisis considers a 25% of voters to be undecided
Reporte Confidencial @RConfidencial
Ya hemos dicho Danálisis pone a Capriles 5% por debajo de Rosales 2006 . Alguien cree eso?
Foget Datanalisis! We will only trust C21’s numbers, the others will only trust Jesse Chancon’s numbers. Everybody happy, right?
Actually having Chavez at below 50 in both counts right now is a good sign. I’ll take this with a grain of salt though. After all, it’s Datanalisis.
“It’s worth pointing out that Datanálisis has a large number of undecided voters, or people who simply don’t want to answer. That could point to problems with the way the question was framed, or with the poll itself. Or it could simply be a reflection of people not having made up their minds.”
I think this is weak. You could just as easily have said that C21 had an abnormally low number of undecideds considering we’re 7 months from the vote. But C21 gave the answer you wanted to believe and Datanalisis didn’t so…
I think the “normal” is having low number of undecideds. Who isn’t decided at this stage of the game?
Well, that’s a matter for debate. For my money we just report the result as it is and move on. Either the numbers will converge or they won’t. Adding a graph that sows doubt on the result basically because we don’t like it is just one step away from Feto’s fetid response…
+1
Incidentally, on the “who isn’t decided at this stage of the game” issue…
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/08/30/040830crat_atlarge
Here’s my 10 cents.
Datanalisis (and every other pollster) have traditionally had the following question on their rosters:
Do you consider yourself to be:
a) Very Chavista
b) Somewhat Chavista
c) Identified with Chavismo
d) Neutral
e) Identified with the opposition
f) Somewhat Opposition
g) Very Opposition.
The result of these questions are then added up and tabulated to come up with political tendencies and how people will tend to vote or lean in cases of undecideds or Ni-Ni’s.
Traditionally the result of this tally leaves us with a possible number of undecided voters that normally starts in the mid to low 30′s and drops as the election draws near.
My perception is that whoever leaked the poll results leaked the answer to this question and not the answer to the question:
“If the elections were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?” that traditionally has a much lower number of undercideds (around 9-10%).
Maybe I’m just hopeful, but 25% undecided doesn’t sound right to me.
sorry but no.
Gee quico, why so long winded!
I just have confirmation that it’s voting intention they’re reporting.
Dealing with the undecided in close races is one of the hardest thing to do in electoral polling. As we grow closer to the election, and if the gap closes some more, pollsters will have to conduct some heavy duty statistical modeling to allocate the undecided. That’s typically done by looking at past electoral behavior of the demographic segments that are more likely to respond as “undecided”, and also by looking at their answers to questions that correlate with voting intent. Not an easy task but pollsters who do it well usually beat everyone else. BTW, we don’t know whether C21 is doing any kind of such modeling to allocate some of the undecided. That’s why it’s risky to look at slides that don’t have all the technical info on them and jump to conclusions on what they mean.
Does anyone have an idea on how these polls are getting done? By phone or in person?
I think Datanalisis will release information to the general public on Thursday. We should know then.
Before believing any poll, we need to know certain details.
1- Phone or home? None of them are trustworthy…fear factor plays first.
2- How was the question formulated?
3- Size and location of the sample?
Then again, Datanalisis was way off on the last election and even worst on the primaries.
“Then again, Datanalisis was way off on the last election and even worst on the primaries.”
I find it amazing how the past gets misremembered for political convenience.
Check:
http://caracaschronicles.com/2012/01/18/where-they-stood-in-december/
In December, Datanalisis had HCR 45, Pablo Perez 33, Leopoldo 16. That’s their last publicly available poll before Capoldo happened.
Add HCR and Leopoldo and you get 61-33, which is pretty close to what ended up happening (64-30.)
But nobody wants to hear the results of their March poll…so suddenly everybody remembers they screwed up last year! Seriously, guys…
Asi… asi… asi… es que bloguea!!
adding LL votes to HCR’s total tally is shitty math. it ain’t that simple. now flame away, you’ve gotten good at it lately FT. I’ve been lurking more than posting lately and have seen you become more dimissive and aggressive than usual.
I simply dont believe in Datanalisis. It would be interesting to analyze some of their previous work, not just the recent stuff.
It was my new year’s resolution: be more dismissive and aggressive towards easily-disproved comments!
how has it been dissproved? sheesh calm down nancy…
Seriously, I don’t understand why people assume polls are a prediction of the election results. Datanalisis is not saying HCR will get 31% of the popular vote! Polls are just to gauge people’s views on candidates, which is extremely volatile. Personally I’m disappointed that winning the primaries doesn’t seem to have boosted Capriles. This, however, doesn’t mean we’re lost. It may be that we have a new wave of Sympathy for Chavez now that he has cancer again. Let’s not forget that chances are Chavez will not run. This is not good news but there’s no reason to be disheartened.
The primary bounce was cut off by Chavez’s announcement of new health treatments.
Sympathy/Pity element at work. The heart overrides the head.
Pongamos estos datos en perspectiva. Se acuerdan de la “encuesta de la felicidad”? Aquélla que decía que los venezolanos éramos de los seres humanos que se declaraban más felices en el planeta. Que después de 13 años de esta tragedia, un 44 o 48 por ciento de venezolanos diga que va a votar por Chávez, es consistente con el “país de la felicidad” que somos. Es chocante, pero no sorprendente. Hay muchas maneras de explicar esto (clientelismo, autoestima, revanchismo, etc.). Pero no hay duda que el virus de la “felicidad” que nos han contagiado ha calado en el “pueblo”. Es un milagro que todavía un 30 o 35 por ciento sigamos resistiéndonos a ser felices.
good point…
In my view, that sort of “teflon temper” of Venezuelans (todo nos resbala y todo lo convertimos en un chiste) is a double edge sword. It makes us very resilient; but at the sime time it makes us so “desenfadados” that the country can be crumbling into pieces and we’re still having fun (and the ones that aren’t are either gone, or getting a visa). Someday, somebody should write a book about the schizopheric world that opinion polls in Venezuela describe. If you ask how the lives of venezuelans are going IN GENERAL (without getting into specifics, let alone mentioning politics) the majorities -chavistas and not chavistas alike- will answer it is great. Then, when you go on to explore about specifics you get a picture so grim that it’s hard to believe it’s the same people responding. On top of that, those who have traditionally voted for Chavez don’t make a connection between him and the country’s problems. Chavez has masterfully positioned himself as the one responsible for the misiones, while positioning his ministers as responsible for the problems. That’s why nobody will win an election against Chavez by pointing out the country’s problems. a) The majority of venezuelans recognize those problems but “no se dan mala vida” about them, and b) an important part of them don’t believe they have anything to do with Chavez. Add economic growth and petroleo por las nubes to the mix and the schizofrenic picture is complete.
We cannot get into denial or fatalism. Its time to take a look and the numbers. Its time to indentify what are the regions where we need to campaign harder. why many of those people are undecided, what is the right message for them.
This might also serve as an opportunity to placate the triumphalism of many people who think that we don’t have to do nothing and that the election is won.
Even if the numbers were good for us right now, that would not mean that much at this stage. I refuse to delude myself thinking is a sure bet we’ll win, but I also refuse to give in to the esto no tiene remedio camp.
If the numbers by Datanalisis are correct, then convincing the undecided will not be enough, quite a few chavistas have to be made to change sides. Let’s take the numbers that Datanalisis gives for the likely voters: 48% to 35%. If we assume (based on the historical trend for a presidential election) a 73% turnout, then 13.4 out 18.4 millions will vote. Then according to Datanalisis, Chavez would have 6.44 millions and HCR only 4.7 millions (barely more than Rosales got last time). Chavez only needs 2% more, i.e. 270.000 more votes from the undecided. How hard can it be to get them? Well, certainly not as hard as the 2 millions HCR still needs to get.
So, as I said, unless chavistas change their minds in the next six months (and they haven’t in 13 years), then…
The opposition and the PPT got combined almost 5.7 million votes in the Parliamentary elections, so at least that number of people is willing to vote for the opposition and are not hardcore hasta la muerte chavistas.
There is always a way to analyze the numbers to see a fatalistic outcome. Chavismo might probably win, but is not written in stone.
And precisely saying that the people who is going to decide the election no tiene remedio and asking how can they still vote for Chávez, is probably not the smartest way of getting their vote.
A chavista friend of mine argues that the the opposition might have gotten 5.7 million votes in the Parliamentary elections, but things will be different when it is Chavez’s presidency that it is at stake. Now, I’m not saying I agree or disagree with him, but certainly there is a big discrepancy between those 5.7 million votes and Datanalisis results.
I guess what I want to say is that you can either be an optimist or take Datanalisis results seriously, but you can’t do both and still be consistent. Is it reasonable not to take Datanalisis seriously? Well, I think it is reasonable not to take ANY POLLSTER in Venezuela seriously. Name any given pollster and I’ll show you quite a few polls they got very wrong.
Coming from a totally personal unscientific point of view, it is hard to see how Radonsky would get less votes than Rosales got. I see Radonsky as a stronger candidate and I also feel that the government is in a much worse esteem now than during the last presidential elections. Back in the days the government used to build railways, create missions etc. Today the government isn’t doing anything, plus it has had a lot of scandals.
I also believe that opposition voters are more dedicated than all but the hardcore chavistas. 10 declared chavista voters produce less election day votes than 10 declared opposition voters. Supporting facts for this belief:
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_parlamentarias_de_Venezuela_de_2010#Encuestas_nacionales_sobre_las_Elecciones_Parlamentarias_2010
Datanalysis subestimated opposition votes, although if it is really the case that chavista voters would fail to comply with their answers, that really isn’t Dataanalysis’ fault.
According to official numbers Chavez got 7.3 million in the last elections (total votes about 11.7 million), Rosales got 4.3 million. In the parliamentary elections Chavez there were in total 11.1 million votes. Next presidential elections (taking into account population growth) would possibly bring out around 12 million voters.
Do any of you know at least one person who voted for the opposition in the parliamentary elections that will vote for Chavez in the next elections? I don’t. I believe Chavez can get a lot of non-voters to vote, but I don’t believe he will get opposition votes. Let’s say the opposition has a really good election and gets 6 million votes. Chavez will get 6 million votes and possibly win due to manipulation if it is a close race.
So, being realistic, the opposition is guaranteed at least 5, possibly 5.3 million votes. Chavez will probably get more than in the last parliamentary elections, meaning 5.7-6 million votes.
What could tip the scales before the elections?
1. Various sickness scenarios.
2. Megascandals. This would have to be a major major f*ckup, since people don’t really care too much about huge f*ckups anymore. Chavismo can’t reign for 6 months without a scandal, it’s a basic consequence of their incompetence. The last scandal was water, which definitely could have an impact in Maturin.
I believe the only really big problem which could happen would be a severe lack of funds forcing a devaluation or some other major economic upset before the election. I think there is a fair chance that the government will have to pay the price for not devaluing in January, and the public finances are leaking like never before.
Conclusion:
To win, the opposition needs to be lucky and must keep campaigning smart and hard, especially in strong chavista areas, promising unprecedented clientilism in a new, legitimate and fresh way (I know that isn’t good for the country in the short term, but it is necessary now).
I´m not a messenger shooter at all, and I don´t see these results as a bad news. But being familiar with the data, I would say that Datanalisis trajectory has been at best spotty and certainly much more inconsistent than C21. In my ranking they are not at the same level. I´ve also learned to appreciate when the slides of a poll are written with some rigor, for example
http://www.slideshare.net/LeopoldoLopez/datanalisis-primarias-12-febrero-2012
Here, they missed Pablo Perez´share by 16 points or so, that you can explain or not or whatever. But how in the world the estimated shares does not add up to 100% is something that Ieft me with some sense of poor quality control that really bothers me…
Saddening. But expected. Lifelong habits of willful ignorance, dependency, out and out beggary and incapacity to formulate a rational, realistic train of thought of many Venezuelans take their toll.
However, many things can happen… Correction, some important things should happen before October the 7th. Some that have a lot to do with Reality, that harsh world of money Not Growing on Trees that we as a nation are so good at ignoring. Some works of F & SF play with the idea that really weird stuff can parade before the very eyes of most normal people in countries like the UK because they will simply filter out the weirdness. Enter Venezuelans who accept weirdness and filter out reality on a daily basis, all without anybody going to the trouble of setting up a totalitarian/theocratic regime.
Obvious example thereof: the things Hugo is Hiding about His Health will inevitably and unavoidably made known and confirmed by none other than the Afflicted Party Himself. My assumption is that the details the usually loquacious (and tedious) character is not mentioning cannot be good news, and that his condition as known through the few generalities he let through his teeth can be considered seriously life threatening. Some place else in the world (totalitarian regimes excepted) the pressure would be gigantic, to choose a successor to the leader, from inside his own party, and the population would never swallow the fable, that he is fit to run.
“then I don’t know what you can do to reverse them.”"
“People vote with their pockets.”
“It’s the economy”
Cash distribution…
–
Extorres,
Broken record there, Mate.
A solution for the economy, but not for getting winning elections. Remember “mi negra”?
Roy, I wish it were a broken record since your “mi negra” reply is one I’ve replied to countless times. Mi Negra was being very successful. It started late, and those behind it weren’t too clear or too sold on it, so the rules kept changing and it got very confusing. But, clearly, its numbers were going up, and going up at an accelerated rate. So your Mi Negra counter, actually supports my position.
Regardless, though, Mi Negra falls short to what is being proposed here. I really doubt you could come up with a convincing argument that poor people will not tend to vote for the person who would distribute 10 USD/day per Venezuelan if elected, especially if the candidate doesn’t have any reason not to vote for him.
Cash distribution, would win elections. Aside from that, sorry for the broken record, but as you have demonstrated, I haven’t said it enough…
–
I am having a hard time with all this teeth gnashing 6 months from an election.
All this despair, for what? If we were 3 weeks or a month out I’d certainly be worried, but come on people!
The campaigns have not started, officially that is, and the goddam election hasn’t even been called, officially that is!
WTF is wrong with you nimrods?
STFU, get back to work and let’s keep on keepin’ on!
We are going to win come October 7, period.
Yes, it is uphill both ways, it’s snowing and we’re barefoot. So what?
We have a great chance, let’s keep our eye on the prize and work smart.
He dicho.
:)
Dude.
True dat. Polls don’t win elections, votes do.
Thanks for the reality check
Amen brother, el que este cagado que se compre un perro.
And then, some interesting developments are sure to unfold before October the 7th. There’s hope yet for the sufferers Venezuelan mass hallucination in reality’s uncanny ability to smash through it.
well said
Loud cheers from the peanut gallery!
After Datanálisis, I can only recommend that you check out Ricardo Sucre’s latest blog entry. I you find it hard to read, copy it and paste it into a Word Document.
http://politicaconsentido.blogspot.com/2012/03/en-que-andan-no-es-la-primera-que-este.html
Mensaje de Servicio Público: Se solicita con carácter de urgencia un editor para el Sr. Ricardo Sucre…
That was wayyyyyyyy long.
Would you have cut any part?
Oh C’mon GTAvex, I get it that the guy is your friend, but as the masthead on Granma says, “dónde comienza el deber, termina la amistad.” The chorizo is absurdly, almost comically miswritten. He may have a lot to say, but the level of disorganization, the number of strewn fragments and half-digested thoughts that interrupt his flow and don’t go anywhere, and just the sheer frightening neverending length of it speak of someone who really, really needs an editor.
Part of this is personal: I have a longtime pet peeve with the fact that nobody in Venezuela takes blogging seriously as a form of expression with its own codes, its own best practice, its own implicit rules of excellence. People think blogging is just about sitting down behind a computer and putting out a rant that you can publish without anyone having to edit it. It devalues something that I’ve spent a frightening amount of time doing over the last ten years. And it blasphemes Saint Andrew of Daily Dish, too.
Sorry for the rant…
In the financial. world investors talk about an event known as capitulation,
when the “Bears” or “Bulls” can no longer hold their trading positions
“Puts” or “Calls”
Chavez supporters haven’t reached capitulation yet, because Chavez keeps throwing
them a timely bone.Mission housing was a masterstroke of an example.
When Margret Thatcher was leading the Conservative party she did
something similar by telling Britons living in governed houses
they could buy the houses they lived in, at reduced cost.
The Labor party countered with “why buy what you are getting for virtually free”
The majority of renters went for the offer an had an added reason to vote Conservative.
and of course she won reelection, for Chavez everyone who put their name down
for a house is a vote for him, what is the opposition offering ?
CHR should bring back “Mi Nigra” it was the only thing Chavez was truly afraid off.
Bring back “Mi Negra”????? Hell no.
What does the opposition offer? clean-up corruption? stop the killing?
your in a gunfight and you want to bring a water pistol!.
Chavez is promising houses giving appliances, all the social problems will still be around
With CHR and maybe worse, with Chavez people blowing up buildings and who know what.
People vote for what they think they can get, even Julius Caesar new that
I truly believe that returning to some of the same strategies that (as Chavez called them) Frijolito 1, 2 y 3 would just give them great arguments to tie up HCR with the past.
So far he has handled himself really well, but if he is to launch a government program proposal, our best hope is that it does´nt include anything from previous candidates, specially something as obvious as Mi Negra. I´m not saying I agree or disagree with the program, I just think we need something new, something fresh, not Mi Negra, or Acude or whatever has been done in the past.
No need to specifically mention Mi Negra, only pointing out that chavez has been using poor people’s money to pay for solving problems he hasn’t solved the same as La Cuarta and all previous governments.
If the opposition simply offers to *stop* taking people’s money regressively, and distributing it directly, the opposition would get the votes.
–
Extorres,
As much as I can agree with you with UCTs and CCTs, I am not certain that will help you win. The few CCTs that have been placed or suggested have been perceived as cheap populism and have had a negative effect in oppo voters. Not sure what is the effect on chavistas.
I don’t think Venezuela is a country that is ready for this, yet. IMO
Rodrigo Linares, reason for making it a point that this is no money transfer from the government to the citizens; this is a distribution of the oil monies that previous governments have been stealing from the citizens. It’s their money. It never takes me more than a few minutes to get anyone in any barrio or small town to understand, AND to want it. The conversation always leads to, “you should run for president; I would vote for you.”
Cash distribution wins elections, not because it’s populist, but because anything else is graft, and regressive, to boot.
–
The point is that C21 poll was not good either. It just LOOKED good because of the technical tie. But when one got into it, it was not nice.
I am pasting the comment I made in Miguel’s blog a copy of days ago.
*************************************
Miguel, I just saw the C21 poll over Quico’s blog. I don’t think this is good news for us. Yes Capriles is head to head if one sees general voters, but the difference with Chávez jumps to 6% of difference with comited voters, and Chavez is not campaigning! What is worse, the percentage of comited voters that will vote for Capriles seems to be the same as in the general population.
The other point that I don’t quite like is that the distance between Capriles and the other potential chavistas should be larger, given that Capriles is a candidate and has been campaigning since last year, whereas the other chavistas just happen to be there: they have not yet started their campaign.
Overall, I hate to be a pessimist, but I think we should be in better shape at this stage of the game: with a country with so many problems and a sick president that is not campaigning, Capriles should be winning by a large margin. He is not.
In fact, I think the opposition put the primaries too late and the media rejoiced into the panoplie of candidates that would not win, whereas we should have concentrated our efforts into putting Capriles in the spotlight since the beginning. Even now, maybe it is because I don’t have access to Vzlan TV or radio, but I don’t see much of Capriles in the media.
“Capriles should be winning by a large margin”!?
No, sorry, but no.
4% GDP growth + $110 a barrel = Massive Built In Advantage for the Incumbent Party. Massive.
Well, it’s massive but you should have just put “$110 a barrel”. The 4% GDP is a consequence of anything over $85 for about 6 months earlier.
Admittedly, prices are here to say for a couple of years at the very least.
It’s the economy… people vote pockets… we keep hearing it over and over.
It’s right under our noses, but I’m the broken record. lol My life story.
–
Quico,
Chávez is sick, he is not there, he is not campaigning. Insecurity is at all times high and so is inflation, there is a very high unemployment despite the price of the oil barrel, the government is 13 years old and the president STILL GETS THAT TYPE OF POLL NUMBERS?!?
Sorry Quico, but in ANY other country the opposition should be winning big at this moment. This is not the case because they have done something wrong. What it is going on it is not normal.
We must, as citizen of Venezuela start making the opposition accountable for its failure facing this government. Chávez is not invincible, it is the leaders that we have against him that have not known to do what it takes to beat him.
They should have united WAY before they did. The primaries should have been much earlier, the other candidates should have endorsed Capriles much earlier if they knew they were not going to win (like Lopez did). And now, they should support Capriles in a much stronger way.
Your looking at it from the middle class perspective.
Logic and reason.
Put your self on a hill in Petare, you live as your parents and
and grand parents,. “BC” before Chavez, and you have a sneaky
feeling you would be the same with CHR.
So you take the trinkets from Chavez and live as you all ways have.
Bruni, read Quico’s comment and do the math: oil at 110 implies that a huge –HUGE– amount of cash is entering the economy, whether it enters at the top, at the middle or at the bottom, the amount is so huge that an effect will be felt at the poorest rungs, be it through direct receipt of trickles of it, or indirect job opportunities, or even just knowing a guy who’s doing well. The effect, socially, is that things are better off now than before.
This has always been the case. When the economy suffers, the incumbent has a hard time. When the economy does well, the incumbent has an advantage. When the economy has a QUINTIPLE advantage, the incumbent has a 20-fold advantage because the first fifth took care of all costs, everything else is pure bonus.
The oil effect is huge. No amount of repeating will get the magnitude completely across; that’s how huge.
Imagine telling people that they would have a guaranteed income of 3.700 USD per year. A family of 10 would have income of 37.000, without working. Remind them that a family of ten would have received 370.000 USD cash in the last 10 years if chavez hadn’t used it for whatever he used it. And that, if elected, you would give them close to a quarter million dollars by the time the next election rolled around. That amount of money, whether you distribute it or waste it, is still a huge amount affecting the economy.
It’s huge. People vote their perception of economy. Cash distribution is the most direct way to affect that perception.
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According to this article, the price tag to keep democracy out of Saudi Arabia was $130 billion over the Arab Spring:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/breaking-views/say-goodbye-to-cheap-oil/article2382865/
So oil can buy you love. But the Saudis have a long entrenched system with a fierce religious ideology to back it up. I’m with Roberto N. on this. The opposition is united, credible and viable. The incumbent party has loyalty purchased at increasingly inflated prices and the Wizard of Oz. Stay the course!
“…I don’t see much of Capriles in the media.”
And you won’t see much of him in the future. A huge conglomerate of state media with only 24/7 propaganda, the abuse of “cadenas”, the legal and illegal harassment of journalists and outlets and the growing self-censorship. That’s the communicational hegemony at work.
That is where the private media should play a role. In the outlets that I read from by computer there are very few news about Capriles. Are they afraid? Or don’t they like Capriles?
How is he expected to pick-up in the polls if he is not given more exposure?
The independent newspapers could give him some exposure, but not much real effect. Radio stations are under huge pressure of CONATEL, because they’re shutting down a lot of them, using technical and legal reasons. Regional TV is trapped by the fact many of them have public sector ads as the main source of income. If a regional channel gets in the way, it gets bought by Chavista interests (like Telellano recently) or just closed.
And national private TV, beside Globo (who’s only free to air in CCS and VAL) is deliberately apolitical or deeply embedded with Chavismo. After RCTV’s shutdown and Cisneros’ editorial aboutface, the main TV airwaves are Chavez’s territory.
And that’s before the real campaign begins. I expect the CNE’s rules to be very laxed for Chavez and very rough for HCR.
My take on polls in Venezuela:
1) Por telefono: “Riiiing, riiing…Alo? buenos dias señora, estamos haciendo una encuesta. por quien va a votar?” La señora piensa rapidito “Sera que me tienen el telefono intervenido? Sera que me van a quitar mi pension si digo que por Capriles? Sera que…”, asi que responde “por Chavez, por quien mas va ser, mijo?”
2) En la puerta: “Ding dong”. En la cocina la señora le dice al hijo: “hazte el loco que yo no estoy esperando a nadie y yo no se quien es, no vaya a ser que nos vienen a robar”.
3) En la calle: “Señora, buenos dias, estamos haciendo una encuesta..”. La señora piensa “quien me esta viendo? Sera que me estan plantando evidencia? me van a botar de mi trabajo”, “por quien mas va a ser? por Chavez”.
There you go. Chavez gets 60% of the poll.
VERY good point!
I haven´t read all the comments but this level of panic t is preoccupying. If I were a Chavista I would read this thread of comments and enjoy *our* massive freak out. That would definitely lift up my spirits.
To be a great winner you need to be a good loser. Take the poll for what it is: a photography. Assess, move on.
I hope that you have noticed that the opposition has deliberately made a point too have a non-drama approach to polls and to any “bad news for the opposition” in general. Because there is no real adrenaline pressure when we panic. Panic=terrifying paralysis.
We keep our course, we keep doing the good work and improving it. Obsessing and worrying endlessly and aimlessly about polls is precisely what Chavismo wants us to do. They are driven out of their own minds and they don´t get when we DON’T make it about the polls, when we DON’T make it ONLY about Chávez, but instead make this about simply spreading the word, keeping on message, honing the content and delivery of that message.
#stopthefreakout
Gracias,
Best comment of the thread.
Thank you.
Ditto.
It’s not only a photograph, but it’s also out of focus because of the fact that, for reasons like Carolina writes above, it may well be impossible to conduct a reliable poll in Venezuela.
One other thing to consider here is, how much upside does Chavez have? It’s hard to see any reason that his numbers would get much better than they are right now.
“It’s hard to see any reason that his numbers would get much better than they are right now.” Except for the wad that I estimate he’s been saving for a rainy day…
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What I find interesting here is that CH is stuck in a 45% in both C21 and Datanalisis, which is lower than his comfort area. See that also the Datanalisis generally gives us bad results (look at the reform and at the 2010 elections). So, one can expect these results to be better.
This an article published today on Tal Cual:
HAN INSTALADO CENTROS DE VOTACIÓN EN CASAS DEL PSUV
Detectan migraciones ilegales de votantes
50 mil personas fueron cambiadas de sus centros de votación en varios municipios del estado Zulia
Copei acusa al CNE de vulnerar el Derecho y ser el ejecutor de la política de exclusión del Gobierno nacional
Based on this preliminary complaint filed by Julio Montoya (a member of parliament for the opposition), the number of arbitrary migrations at a national level may be reaching the hundreds of thousands. Just as anecdotal evidence, I was moved arbitrarily two years ago from my voting centre to some place in Barinas (a place that I have never been in my life), while my brother was moved from his centre to Carabobo. I was registered at the consulate in Toronto while my brother was registered in Maracaibo. This is two out of six members of our family arbitrarily migrated and unable to vote. I have not been able to vote in the last two elections because of this arbitrary move as I refused for some time to comply with the absurdity of having to re-register from scratch, for which I had to gather an insane number of documents and submit them to the consulate in person (including an original of my birth certificate, even when I have a cedula and a passport to prove my identity). I strongly suspect (although I have no evidence) that somebody has been voting illegally under my name, and that most likely all those hundreds of thousands of fraudulent migrations are votes going to Chavez and his party. Call me paranoid.
Las he visto más feas y se han casado… Cuando escogieron a Rosales por consenso la diferencia era de 40ptos!