100 thoughts on “Bloomberg cites Consultores 21 Poll: Chávez and Capriles tied

  1. Schemel is famous for saying Capriles and Maria Corina were tied in February, a small 60%+ eror

    Seijas for saying the 2007 referendum would be passed 64% to 26% (or was it 25%?)

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    • Poll results differ depending on the methodology used. If you rely on REP data for sample design, you’re in a GIGO situation, since the REP’s been increasingly manipulated since 2003 and now shows anywhere from 20% to 25% more pro-Chávez voters than actually exist

      In an article I recently published at http://porlaconciencia.com/?p=3458 I explain why, at the very least, we should be shaving 7 points off Chávez’s poll numbers and giving Capriles 7 points, in order to accuratelly reflect public opinion.

      Polls are going to be an important battllefield in this election-war, since in order for vote fraud to be successful, you need to do more than just have the ability to pull it off successfully (which for now the government can do — take a look at http://2012.votolimpio.org.ve/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=273:pedernales-delta-amacuro&catid=49:curiosidades&Itemid=191 if you still have any doubts); you also need to show that yours is a plausible win. Look for most polls to show a light increase in Capriles support up to July or so, and then Chávez to come on strong in the backstretch.

      You can do the math, or you can keep your head in the sand, as many on this forum appear to do,, but believe it or not, with the phantom voters, stealth voter migrations, and wholesale bribing/coercing of volunteer election officials, Chávez still has the ability to turn a hypothetical 3-1 Capriles-overChávez win into a late-night 10-pt election win for Chávez

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      • True, but I had los pelos de la burra en la mano without the help of Consultores 21 :-)

        Seriously now, I am surprised at how much of a quack Schemmel has become. What could have happened? Needed cash fast?

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      • For me, this election could be decided in Oriente and Guayana. Aragua is getting in play thanks in part to Mr. Isea. I don’t know about Trujillo. The key is not just to win most states (after all, we don’t have a electoral college) but to increase or reduce the gap of votes, depending on the states. In our strongholds like Zulia or Miranda is to get as many votes to make the gap huge. In the case of Apure or Trujillo is to reduce the difference with Chavismo as much as possible. As the cliche says, every vote counts.

        No wonder why Ms. Oblitas doesn’t want to help the young to register in masse.

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        • Oblitas is helping, as I have heard: in every place with large abstention numbers and where the military had ample advantage in 2010 (like Yaracuy and Portuguesa)

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        • Looks like the Monagas vote will be split among Chavistas with “El Gato” running as an independent.

          Perfect scenario for Caprilles.

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        • From what I have heard, the young in Venezuela cannot stand the bully and flat out reject everything related with the fossil ideology and it’s Cold War mentality.

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      • I think it is too early to state such things. In the primaries one could state that the primary would be won in Oriente (before Leo withdrew) but now with all that is going on and so many months left I prefer a more cautious approach. The states listed there are a good bet except for Trujillo. But if all go for Capriles then we are talking landslide… Let’s just wait first for the essentials, like, you know, will Chavez run……

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        • Not only will he run, but it just occurred to me to ask has the date been officially confirmed? Is there an election on October 7?

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  2. Neck and neck does nobody any good, neither either ‘pretty close but ahead’. Short of massive is far too easily kneaded; even massive is relatively kneadable. Along with all the other grave odds&ends underway, all eliciting aggressive responses (reporters cannot report, say water impurities, without scientific lab evidence; photos of green-slime ridden bodies of water and overgrown purification plants are insufficient), it seems that something as civilized as poll numbers is something of a red herring: the basic question is the one focusing on whether an election process is going to be allowed to upset several peoples’ applecarts, from mandarin speakers to antillean chaps with free diesel. And stuff.

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    • Chavez is going to portray himself as a super giant star with all goods and
      international powerful friends with whom all are working for el pueblo.blah-blah blah…
      Did you hear about the 20 big events planned between now and Oct. 7 by
      Chavez – he will have large planned events with international stars present -maybe concerts…of course, buses bringing hundreds with red t-shirts…all with the press in place and expensive tv and other forms of advertisement…
      And, Chavez wants everyone to think of Capriles as small, local boy who just wants
      to be a puppet for the yanquis.

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  3. The 46% that Chavez is polling is definitely danger zone for a politician holding office. It is unlikely that there is anyone in Venezuela who doesn’t know who Chavez is, and so positions will have hardened. Capriles, who already has 45% according to the poll, has room for growth as people become familiar with who he is.

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    • And remember that many people in government ministries or companies when asked who they will vote for say Chavez out of fear.

      I would add 10 to 15% to these numbers in favour of Caprilles.

      The country is ready for a change!!!

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      • But there is also the reverse effect. In some circles of society, it is well known that being a “revolutionary” would not be well received, so there are a quite few “closet chavistas” everywhere you bother to look for them.
        This is not only due to social pressure, but also because of a characteristic of the Venezuelan psyche: self delusion and narcissism. This is the reason we keep polling as one of the “happiest” countries in the world, This is the solution behind the strange phenomenon called “class migrations” that occurs during polls ( for example, those in social class C will consider themselves to be B, and so on).
        We as a people cannot dare to associate ourselves with what we think others consider “marginal” and so there is also self censorship in this respect in the other side.
        I know a few of this “closeted chavistas” and I can only say that the fact they have to pretend they aren’t just make them angrier and far more radical than the “drag queens”. They see voting as an opportunity to punish those who look down on them, and they are the least unlikely to change their minds.
        So in a sense what we got here is a double Bradley, with Chavistas pretending to be with the opposition him and vice verse, which makes running proper polling , just as running proper “anything”, impossible in Venezuela.

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    • Jeffry,
      That is true. I believe most Chavistas are coerced into supporting Chavez or lose a job, lose privileges, go to jail, and not receive police or judicial protection. Chavez will head down and Caprilies will go up. Remember, these are the only two in the election.

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    • Kudos indeed! Also one voting center will be opened in Cyprus! The Venezuelan diaspora has gone that far…

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  4. Perhaps the most relevant aspect of the poll: Capriles has double digit leads over all four of the most likely replacement candidates for Chávez (Adán, Jaua, Maduro, Cabello).

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  5. Hate to be an aguasfiestas, but why do you think that 5 out of 6 recent polls have Chavez with a considerable lead? Are we looking at the glass half full with this C21 poll? Personally, I prefer to wait for LV Leon’s numbers to celebrate.

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    • And most of them say the opposition has about 26% of the vote. If abstention is 20% then we are saying that the opposition candidate will get around 3.5-3.6 million votes. Capriles got almost 3.1 in the primary and the opposition 5.4 in the Assembly vote. Does this sound logical to you?

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  6. cpc,
    When C21 sounds, piedras trae. They’re good. Felix Seijas (IVAD), on the other hand, is a known Chavista.

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  7. So, Bloomberg says 46% of the population of Venezuela supports
    Chavez. If so, how many suport Cuba? How many support Iran?
    (If you do not support Cuba or Iran, then why on earth would you
    support Chavez?
    Of the 46% who support Chavez, how many support a candidate
    who calls the opposition a “pig”? If you do not support a candidate
    who calls the opposition a “pig” -then why on earth would you
    support Chavez?
    Point, is if these so called “chavistas” would just stop for a moment
    and ask themselves a few questions and unscramble their brains, then,
    I believe the support for Chavez would be far less than this and other polls
    indicate.

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    • What you are not taking into account is the “cult” nature of Chavismo for a large % of his believers. They don’t care about Iran or Cuba – they only care about their god. They don’t believe he is sick enough to die – they only believe what they hear on VTV which they listen to for hours even if they have access to DirecTV or cable.

      We have 2 older family members that fall into this category & they will vote for Chavez even if he stands in the middle of the street & shoots Capriles because VTV will say that he was provoked & they will believe it 100%.

      We will never reach these people and they probably represent about 20 to 25% of the voting pool.

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    • VIP Noche,

      All good questions, but Island Canuck is right. You aren’t taking into account Chavez’s personal popularity amongst his hard-core supporters. The Chavistas don’t necessarily like what his government is doing, nor any of the other people in his government. They don’t even like most of his policies. But they adore him personally, and that is enough for them to vote for him, every time. You really have to see it to believe it.

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    • I have dwindling supplies of patience for opinions like this one, I’m afraid, opinions that boil down, in the last instance, to:

      “If only poor people who disagree with me were *smarter* they’d agree with me…”

      When you find yourself thinking any variant on that thought, you should take that as a prompt to stop and question whether you haven’t just fundamentally failed to engage with the lived experience of the millions of Venezuelans who support the president. If you still think this is about who calls whom which name then…well…like I said before…

      sigh…

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      • Well, I do, I did, and I will. (By the way – I am not the person who gave you a negative vote rating above[nor did I give you a positive rating either]
        It is not about rich or poor, or smarter or stupid- it is about truth and lying.
        Nobody calls Chavez on lies he broadcasts on a daily basis-and the same goes for his
        associates- Cabello, et al..Here’s a quote from Chavez’s mentor:
        “Propaganda is vital–propaganda is the heart of our struggle” Fidel Castro

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        • Undoubtedly you will agree with this one-
          Chavez stated repeatedly “There are no FARC in Venezuela”
          See, there are lies -and there are DAMN lies. This fits into the later , agreed?

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          • VIP,

            You still aren’t getting what Francisco is saying: That 20-25% of hard-core Chavistas “love” him unconditionally. He can lie, cheat, steal, etc. and they will still love him. They will justify and excuse any transgression, just as a battered wife will try to justify and excuse her husband.

            Until you understand and accept that, you will not be able to get handle on this subject.

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            • But you and Paco-chan aren’t getting it either. There’s a difference between 20-25% and 46%. Why are the non-hardcore, non-chavez-worshiping chavistas still chavistas?

              The sarcastic response is that the 20+% of non-hardcore chavistas are the drug-dealers, sicarios, purse-snatchers, etc who don’t care about politics and don’t particularly like Chavez, but benefit greatly from Chavez’s total unwillingness and complete incapacity to put real criminals in jail.

              The only alternative is a battered wife who doesn’t actually love her husband, but for some reason still allows him to beat her up every night without ever getting angry at him or trying to stop him in any way. That’s either masochism or just plain stupidity. (And by the way, Battered Wife Syndrome is qualified as a mental disorder related to masochism. So you are calling chavistas crazy while defending them from someone calling them stupid.)

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            • On second thought, the Battered Wife Syndrome isn’t quite right either. The best analogy is that of a Cult with a very charismatic leader. They believe in him to the point of surrendering their own critical faculties. If he says the sky is red, they don’t just accept it, they actually see red.

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  8. I don’t understand how pollsters can differ so much predicting the same election with the same electorate. Some give Chávez more than 20 points and this one gives a technical tie.

    Here in Canada pollsters were able to predict with razor sharp precision the 1995 referendum outcome, and were pretty good not just at the end, but in measuring exactly what was going on during the whole campaign.

    I think that in Vzla either someone is lying upfront with the polls or is being grossly incompetent.

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    • Well, most of the pollsters being bandied around (30.11, GISXXI, ICS) are plain old fake: chavista sock puppets.

      I do agree there’s a real question how IVAD and C21 can come to such wildly different numbers. I do note, however, that Seijas seldom speaks in public and the one and only source we have for his 56-26 result is…José Vicente Rangel! http://www.rnv.gov.ve/noticias/?act=ST&f=2&t=179481

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      • IVAD is so much wrapped in an aura of mystery. Seijas never appears, no website, no details about their polls. Yet major news outlets publish their findings like they’re sacred words and must be believed. That’s not right. At least Schemel defends his own work.

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        • I agree it looks weird, but when you talk to serious pollsters in Caracas they’ll tell you: Seijas is a serious guy with a serious methodology. Schemel? Not so much.

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          • Still, if Seijas is in the particular business of measuring public opinion, he must understand that he can’t hide his overall data for scrutiny. If he doesn’t want to do the PR aspect of the business, let someone else do it. At least have a website. If IVAD is a serious pollster, it must offer some accountability.

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            • I dunno. Seijas is a businessman. By the looks of it, he’s not short of clients…and really, those are the only people he needs to satisfy. Who are we to tell him how to run his company?

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            • True that it’s his business, but the secrecy hurts his credibility and image. He may be already known, but he can be even better known and more trusted by sharing a little bit.

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          • Seijas may be serious, but in the past he has had errors which are not acceptable, the 2007 referendum being the best example. IVAD said that the referendum would be approved by 64% to something like in the twenties for the NO. It should be in Sucre’s database.

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            • Bruni,

              Ultimately, your question is a matter of faith. Which pollster do you trust more? Based on their accuracy and their seriousness, I trust C21 a million times more than Seijas or Schemel.

              I mean, just look at those Seijas “slides” that the government is bandying about as proof of the poll. No specification of which cities they sampled, and one of the conculsions is that the trend for the elections is “almost” irreversible. I’m sorry, but calling an election SEVEN months before it takes place, when the candidate has a mortal illness, when you have 30% of the electorate who is undecided *according to your own numbers*, that’s just borderline insane.

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            • Fausto Masó wrote a pretty lucid analysis about the polls and the Chavista attitute towards Capriles in his column in El Nacional.

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    • Don’t forget the uncertainty factor, based on how many people lie or don’t answer because they fear their answer is not simply going to a poll, but being monitored by someone, somewhere. It’s impossible to measure that, but you can be pretty sure it’s not much of a factor in Canada. Doesn’t at all dismiss your arguments (in fact, those are reasons why you can’t measure what I cite even post-election), it just adds to them.

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    • Bruni, is your “or” an “or” or is it a XOR? I hope you meant an or and not an exclusive one, else you are underestimating the incompetence of those people.

      In Venezuela professional lying can perfectly go hand in hand with absolute incompetence…a real feat that only can attained in Chapucerolandia.

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  9. You may have heard of dead people voting in Chicago. Is Chavez expecting a 105 percent voter turnout in October among morgue residents? Is some Chavista officiial collecting Cedula numbers from the dead to be recycled on election day?

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  10. The other point worth making: there is ZERO downside to someone like Seijas or Schemel coming up with the numbers your client wants to her as of this time. Why? Because the election is still seven months away. The only polls that matter are those you put out in the last month or two, because those can be contrasted with the actual data. Those are the ones you *have* to try and get right. So all we have to go on at this point is the reputation of the firm conducting the poll.

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  11. Didn’t somebody here find some time back a database of pollsters and their poll results? Did anybody have a chance to compare to actual election results? Am I mis-remembering this?

    Anyway…Pollsters must be in a somewhat difficult position. Even serious ones. If you are opposition minded, you may hesitate to issue publicly poll results that show Capriles doing poorly. Not ethical, perhaps, but human nature. You may hesitate to issue poll results that show Chavez doing poorly. There may be concerns about pressures from the government after that. This is a tough place that leads to all kids of twisted thinking.

    I wonder if we’ll ever get a clear picture of what is going on.

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  12. Juan, Miguel, you are too much aware of who are the serious ones and who are not, I am not, except for Jesse Chacón who has become an overnight pollster. For all the others, I don’t get all the subtleties of who can or can’t be trusted. Who is competent and who isn’t.

    I think it was Quico some years ago that published a compendium of what each pollster said in various elections, since the RR2004, and who was and wasn’t right. Maybe you should link that old post so that we get the picture.

    By memory, the best pollster has been Daniel. Seriously. I think he has been right much many times than many of the profesional pollsters.

    As for Prokaryote, I was referring to an “OR”. I never underestimate incompetence!

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  13. Seijas is a former statistics professor at UCV and also the head of the OCEI (now INE). He’s legit. I don’t know him enough to judge the quality of his work, but for some reason I’ve never come accross a published survey from him that does not favor Chavez by a lot.

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  14. All you have to do is look at the fact that ALL the other polls are predicting the opposite of what Consultores 21 predicts.

    http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Venezuela_de_2012#Encuestas

    But what is even more amazing is that you guys have recognized this obvious problem, but have concluded NOT that Consultores 21 is obviously way off, but that ALL THE OTHER GUYS ARE WAY OFF!!!!

    Not only do you have to be bat shit crazy to come to this conclusion, but you could simply look back at previous elections to see which polls have been most accurate. IVAD has consistently been the most accurate poll in the past, whereas Consultores 21 has incorrectly favored the opposition a number of times.

    But pleeeeease don’t change guys. It is just fascinating that a group of people like you actually exist. A group who makes a point of living their lives by willfully denying the reality while staring it in the face. As I’ve said before, someone should do a sociological study here. You guys are akin to some Amazonian tribe who has never made contact with Westerners. If you ever wake up and come to terms with reality your original authenticity will be lost, and no real study can be conducted of your bat-shit-craziness.

    So, for that reason, I beg you…. Do not change!

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    • You’re right. ALL of the maletín-based, no-name, zero-track record chavista sock-puppets pseudo-pollsters have one result, and a single long-established professional pollster has another…the conclusion is indeed obvious.

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      • Thanks for proving my point. In this Amazonian tribe of yours it must be generally accepted that if you put a lot of witty adjectives before something then it automatically makes your argument true. See, these are the kinds of fascinating things that would be lost if you ever came to terms with reality.

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    • Interesting choice of analogy. Got some other people you think are out of touch with reality, rudyard fucking kipling?

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      • Maybe a study about the sexual fascination that Latin American authoritarians provoke in certain confused gringos gringos would be more interesting.

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        • I can just see the headline in the local newspaper:

          “LOCAL AMAZONIAN TRIBE CONDUCTS STUDY ABOUT WHY ‘OUTSIDERS’ TAKE A RATIONAL VIEW OF FACTS AND EVIDENCE”

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            • If I may just add some context. Get a Clue is surely pissed about the “Amazonian tribes” giving her Commandante’s buddy in Ecuador a hard time this week. Like readers of this blog (except her), these people are surely bat shit crazy with no capacity for rational thought and an understanding of reality. I take it, however, that the distinction for this gringa between you venezuelans and other readers of this blog, and the “Amazonian tribes”, is that the “Amazonian tribes” have not been indoctrinated by CIA-Mossad-manipulated polling data on Wikipedia.

              (I have to say, it pays better to be a revolutionary OUTSIDE the USA these days. You’ve got to acknowledge that).

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  15. OK, I started a stub on GISXXI

    http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIS_XXI

    It would be nice if others would also contribute to that page with proper references to show the amazing record, etc.
    We can later write the same article for English and Germans. Let’s see if Reuters, EFE, BBC et alia keep quoting that pollster without adding any comment.
    If you want, do a copy of the whois of the GISXXI as well.
    Let’s see if the government creates a new pollster sooner than later.

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  16. I am happy to announce that the level of outright denial of reality has reached new heights!!

    After I posted the above list of polls demonstrating that Chavez has a major advantage over Capriles, someone here actually went and CHANGED THE WIKIPEDIA PAGE TO MASK THE REALITY!!! Check it out:

    http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Venezuela_de_2012#Encuestas

    Now that is what I call a stunning and embarrassing level of willful denial!! Truly impressive guys.

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