Capriles Derangement Syndrome

When I first heard about Mario Silva’s conspiracy theory about the MUD inflating turnout figures in yesterday’s primary, I figured it was a flash-in-the-pan, a rash, heat-of-the-moment outburst by a notorious hothead.

Chavismo can’t be crying fraud against its own CNE, can it?

Amazingly, it looks like it can.

Chavista media has turned this theory into the day’s leitmotif. National Radio actually brought it up to a clearly bemused Henrique Capriles.

Amazingly, Diosdado Cabello running with it, even though a few weeks back people like Mario Silva was certain CNE couldn’t be fooled (which, he thought, ruled out the primaries really happening!)

In the meantime, Chavista TV host M.A. Pérez Pirela had this to say:

“If the MUD cheated, they cheated themselves, they cheated adecos and copeyanos, it has nothing to do with the CNE. If they cheated themselves, they did so in at least two ways: first, taking from the adecos and copeyanos their power. Let the adecos and copeyanos fight for scraps. And second, getting their own hopes high that they are going to dislodge Chávez. That is their problem, it is not a problem for the revolutionary forces. They are the ones who inflated their own votes, because I don’t trust anything coming out of the opposition’s cogollo. The dirty war amongst themselves is such that they even started talking about scandals related to each other’s sexual tendencies…”

He then proceeded to make fun of AD by reading out loud this story by our favorite rodent.

Brilliantly, Tibisay Lucena just gave a deliciously ambiguous statement that didn’t exactly rule out the conspiracy – which is great, because that’s just going to add fuel to the insane opinion bubble quickly developing on the chavista side over this.

It’s like a bizarro world re-run of 2004, all this: an evidence-free, entirely seat-of-the-pants, back-of-the-envelope-calculation based, this-doesn’t-fit-in-with-my-preconceived-understanding-of-the-world-ergo-it-is-false conspiracy utterly unhooked from evidence.

Because notice that no one is saying “I have this video of viejas in El Cafetal stuffing ballots” or “this Plan República soldier caught a bunch of escuacas adding in hundreds of extra votes at the end of voting,” or any variation on that theme. It’s not that they’re concocting evidence, it’s that they’re acting as though evidence is basically beside the point. The opposition canNOT mobilize three million people, and therefore, it didn’t.

Now we know how we looked to them back in 2004. Watching your political opposites wrap themselves up in tautologies and absurd conspiracy theories can be amusing. It must have been fun for them back then.

And it sure is fun now.

137 thoughts on “Capriles Derangement Syndrome

  1. I told it yesterday and I insist on it: Socorro le esta serruchando el puesto a Tibi. Ergo, Tibi must do a tightrope act to please Esteban and at the same time, keep a certain aura of credibility. She won’t pull it off. Mark my words: Socorro Hernandez will be the new head of the CNE.

    Looks like the “Amorin theory” is the hail mary pass of Chavismo to completely disqualify the primary process and pretend nothing have changed. It’s a lot harder than just covering their eyes and ears, but this is hardcore Chavismo is all about: A religious cult where they have to believe this nomatter how derranged this sounds. Nothing of this would be ocurring without the approval of Chavez himself. he will talk about this too.

    I didn’t thought this would hurt them that much. Now we know.

    • Jennifer McCoy on CNN earlier: Everything went A-OK.

      For Chavismo, doesn’t matter. Yesterday they were friends, tomorrow they’re empire.

      • i know that socorro is trying to saw tiby out since she came on board. but if she didn’t make it while tiby was on sick leave, i doubt it will happen this year. this is from a source that has worked in a technical position in the belly of the beast since more than a decade ago…so let’s cross our fingers and hope this source is right.

  2. I have to say, I did not like Capriles’ answer to the RNV reporter’s question. He was a tad too confrontational. He should have skirted the issue.

    “If you have questions about the total vote tally, you should bring it up with Teresa Albanes and the MUD. As far as we are concerned, the process was clean, it was done in the presence of witnesses from all sides, with the military standing guard, and save for a few races that are being questioned, we are happy with the results, as are the rest of the candidates.”

    Say that and move on.

      • Do you think Henrique’s testy exchange with the reporter won’t be played ad nauseam on La Hojilla?

        Although I guess the people who watch La Hojilla are out of our reach anyway…

          • what happened guys? i sawe the exchange between HCR and the guy from avila with the red jacket, but no t the first… everyone and the cat believe HCR nailed him on the haed without confrontation. i can’t judge as i only saw exchange # 2 and imo HCXR nailed the ávila guy cleanly and very intelligently.

    • What I love is that it’s a conspiracy theory put forward in the absence of any kind of corroborating evidence whatsoever, backed by back-of-the-envelope maths together with the certainty-of-bad-faith on the part of your political opponents…it’s EXACTLY like 2004!

    • Dude, those guys of the state media are major… let’s keep it there.

      Capriles did the best he could, given the circunstances. When he offered a one-on-one to the VTV journalist, she just dismissed it. Que chama tan grosera. For me, HCR press conference showed that he’s ready for the task ahead.

      Chavismo logic would make Mr. Spock’s head explode. #LogicaChavistaEsBizarra

    • I agree with you, Juan. Capriles was not sticking to his script as a conciliator. But I would change the “bring it up with Albanes and the MUD” to “bring it up with Lucena and the CNE”.

    • I agree with you, Juan. He said he was going to be different than Chávez when he gets pissed off for a tricky question and boy he looked pissed off for a tricky question!

      He should have stayed cool.

  3. The circular argument used to support the fraud theory (“assume three minutes per vote”) is so unbelievably moronic as to seem like a parody of itself.

  4. I was struck by this statement from Diosdado Cabello in the TalCual piece:

    “Diosdado Cabello resaltó que el presidente Hugo Chávez sigue siendo el candidato del pueblo. “El burguesito (Henrique Capriles) se va a enfrentar al arañero de Sabaneta (…) Ya el candidato de la antipatria tiene cara. No le toca una campaña sencilla”, sentenció.”

    This is the rhetoric of desperation. They will get their act and their message together soon, but at the moment, Chavismo appears in disarray.

    • I see your Diosdado and raise you an Aporrea…

      “Pero me a cabo de dar de cuenta que hay un elemento que no habíamos tomado en cuenta que el CNE esta parcializado por asia la oposición, al igual que el plan republica, por que ellos estaban en las mesas de votación, y dieron las cifras que anuncio la señora esa.
      Si ellos no han desmentido esas cifras, la están avalando por lo tanto no son imparciales.
      Les pido a nuestros estimados y admirados compatriotas Mario Silva y Amorin, que atrabes de la Hojilla denuncien al CNE y al Plan republica, el pueblo deberá de exijir la renuncia de los directivos del CNE y el Plan republica, y también exijir que le caiga todo el peso de la ley.
      Por que el 7 de Oct, la CIA y Obama pueden sobornarlo y dan el triunfo al señor Capriles desconociendo la voluntad del pueblo Venezolano”

      • PS- You know you’re witnessing a bona fide meltdown when the official reactions are indistinguishable from a Chiguire article :p

        • Hell, I was watching VTV today, and the official reaction *was quoting* a Chiguire article!

          • And in the meantime, Monagas have the biggest eviromental disaster in history.

            What that tells someone about Chavez’s governing priorities?

        • If I wasn’t atheist, I’d say that Diosdado is definitely God-given. With all the idiocy and lunacy he’s spewing from his muzzle we couldn’t ask for a better PSUV 2nd in command right now.

        • Courtesy of the RAE: arañero, ra. (De araña).

          1. adj. Cineg. Dicho de un pájaro: Que no se amansa.
          2. m. treparriscos.
          □ V. pájaro arañero

          treparriscos.
          1. m. Ave trepadora de unos quince centímetros de longitud desde la punta del pico hasta la extremidad de la cola y aproximadamente el doble de envergadura. Tiene cabeza pequeña, pico fino, largo y arqueado por la punta, plumaje ceniciento, algo azulado en el lomo, negro en la cara y garganta, encarnado en los bordes de las alas y con manchas blancas en las cuatro remeras principales. Se alimenta de insectos y arañas, que caza trepando por las rocas, y suele hallarse en las sierras más altas de España.

          So, Chavez is not longer an eagle but a spanish bird?

        • Un vendedor de arañas (dulces). Una de las cientos de historias que Chavez cuenta es que cuando era chamo vendia dulcitos (arañas) hechos por su abuela para ayudar en su casa.

        • Sobre el “arañero d sabaneta” ver programas alo presidente 323 y 328 y alopresidente teoricoN-4 donde Esteban explica que es un arañero!!
          Ademas en junio del 2010 hizo referencia al arañero (creo, que en cadena nacional) contestando a reto de Alberto Padilla de CNN, de que alguien del gobierno, le explicara el modelo economico de la revolucion bolivaria, en esta intervencion Esteban le recomendaba al periodista que invitara al arañero de sabaneta a su programa. Padilla nunca tuvo any clue de who was el arañero!!

      • I’m not surprised by how the poor devils at aporrea are clinging to the fraud “argument”, but I expected diosdado to have enough savvy to steer clear of it.

    • Glad you mentioned that. Also, Jaua blowing hot air:
      “La derecha tiene candidato, bienvenido, bienvenido a la batalla pero prepárese para la gran victoria del pueblo bolivariano”, dijo Jaua a periodistas al asegurar que el presidente, Hugo Chávez, triunfará en las elecciones presidenciales del próximo 7 de octubre”…(Jaua actually thinks he’s going to win?)

  5. If the oppo has manipulated the CNE, as the fraudistas imply, things must be getting pretty bad for the Chavistas. I thought the Chavistas controlled the CNE lock, stock, and barrel. The fraudistas are implying that the oppo has infiltrated the CNE under the guise of being bonafide Chavistas. What other Chavista institutions has the oppo infiltrated? :)

  6. I’m getting the sense Chavismo is in a real pickle. You have Aissaimi calling out Capriles on insecurity of all issues (I mean – really, with this govt’s record?) and then this don’t believe the turnout argument. This is not the Chavismo we’ve become used to – clear lines given by strong leadership.

    Chavez isn’t leading from the front anymore; Opposition in the ascendency; lots of vested interests in jeopardy… things might be about to get real nasty.

    • This is just the thing – Chávez must be curled up in the fetal position somewhere in Miraflores, and the Sala Situacional is hopeless without his guidance. La linea está vuelta un plato de espaguetis, es una maraña, coño! Too. Much. Fun!

  7. Seems the Carter Center’s and Georgia State U. Jennifer McCoy takes heat from all sides at times, even from me.

    First the opposition cries and throws a temper tantrum about how they got enough people to re-call President Chavez( they did’t) she and Carter put pressure on the bureaucracy to please let the oppo’s play the game ( the bureaucracy sellouts and let’s them play) then Chavez wins the re-call in a landside and Mc Coy and Carter say it was fair.The oppo’s cried again say the computers were rigged and attack the CNE, the Carter Center and McCoy.

    Now McCoy says the votes were fair yesterday and the bureaucracy cries foul.

    I don’t know alot about computer programing but some people can bust any code and program for any result desired, ask the people of the state of Ohio when Bush supposely won their in 2004. So after all these years someone could cook the books and the computers and I don’t doubt it

    The crazy criminal “Uncle Joe” Stalin once said it isn’t who votes in elections, it’s who counts the votes. Same computer company started program in Ohio and Venezuela.

    Y’all are not going to win any way, rigged to win or lose fairly. If you win, the grassroots rise up and puts an end to this game, if you lose fairly y’all better get those tickets either way.

    Get out of Dodge before its too late.

    Cort

    • Less than a hour ago, I wrote this about how Chavismo sees the Carter Center.

      “For Chavismo, doesn’t matter. Yesterday they were friends, tomorrow they’re empire.”

      It took less than one hour for one of the resident trolls of this and other blogs about Venezuela to prove me right. Thank you, troll, Throll. Now, piss off.

      As A. Barreda said: Los votos los tienen locos! Los votos los tienen locos!

    • Carter Center’s and Georgia State U. Jennifer McCoy must quake in her boots when you turn up the heat, Master Cort.

    • Oh, my god, I am soooooo scared! I’m gonna be watching under my bed for you tonight!

      Usually, people like you pisses me off. Today I’m so happy that I don’t care. You’re just pathetic, bitter and scared.

      Good riddance

  8. Guys, could somebody provide a mathematical debunking of the chavista theory (3 minutes per vote)? Just want to have my facts solid before I start arguing with chavistas.

    • let me offer a political reason. the oppo hasn’t been able to take advantage of Misión Robinson. Hence, it takes many members a while to process the voting card — 3 minutes per vote, on average. Hopefully we will improve by October.

    • Something I don’t know: is only one person voting per mesa? I mean: if someone is in the booth, can’t someone else be showing her ID?

      Another thing: look at the number of voters in this mesa:
      http://www.cne.gob.ve/divulgacion_parlamentarias_2010/index.php?e=01&m=01&p=11&c=010111027&t=1&ca=00&v=02&cir=2

      It varies a lot but it tends to be more than 180. It is easy to calculate the average but I wouldn’t care to do that. It is higher than what they say, though. But several people are moving at one time

    • just show them the numbers from the 2006 and 2010 elections. if 3 million votes are impossible, then 11 and 7 are as well!

        • I’m having the following approx numbers:

          3.000.000 votes / 7641 voting machines = 393 voters per machine
          393 voters / 10 hours opening time (8 am a 6 pm) = 39.3 voters per hour giving 1.5 minute per vote. Taking into account that there are different numbers of votes per table and slightly varying speed during the day, chaos, problems etc, I’m getting close to 1 minute per vote on a lot of voting stations. Of course, I don’t believe the fraud theory, but I feel like there is something I’m not getting in these numbers. Somebody please enlighten me.

          • It’s simple. Do you believe it’s reasonable to vote in 1.47min (average) from entering the table to getting out. I’ve been witness, I’ve been voter. I spend 10 seconds in front of the machine (I always know where is my option in the tarjeton), and the rest of the process takes aprox 60 seconds. So, it’s more than reasonable.

          • In addition, as others are saying, while I’m spending 10 seconds in the machine voting, the table members are already checking in a couple more voters.

            • Guys you are all forgetting 1 key fact. The so called 3 mins average include all the phases in the voting process since the moment you enter in contact with the first step, which is when they check you are in the voting notebook. While some people are doing that, others are going through the different phases simultaneously in the same voting center. That makes the whole methodology you and ‘comrade Mario’ are using completely flawed.

        • No, but there were proportionally more. Thus, if you say that it is impossible to have 3 mill votes with 7600 machines you would have to admit that it was impossible to get 11 mill votes with 36500 machines.

    • No need of math debunking. You only need to consider parallel voting:

      As one person is being checked on the registry, another one hears the instructions on how to vote, another one is voting and another one is getting the pinky purpled.

      The “transit time” of each individual maybe be 3 min or more, however, in any given 3 min, more than one people are voting. If they work on factories the way they model voting, it-s no wonder why they are so unproductive…

    • I voted in about one minute, from the time I stand at the checking station of the mesa until I dry my inked finger.

      From 8 to 5 = 9 hours
      1′ per vote = 60 votes/hr
      60 votes/hr * 9 hr = 540 votes/mesa
      540 votes/mesa * 7000 mesas = 3,6MM

      I used 7000 because I don’t know the exact number.

      • But as we said before: several people are in one table! So: that’s everything. Chavistas can’t think several things are happening at the same time.

        It is funny they start counting from minutes and so on instead of number of tables. The whole reasoning is not such.

        1) one person getting his ID checked
        2) one person getting the instructions
        3) one person voting
        You probably have three almost all the time

        • Let’s be clear. They are not counting or analyzing how voting goes. What Amorin did was to pick a number (3 min) that could “demonstrate” his “theory”. He knew that the number would then stick in people’s head. The “theory” then went up through official speakers, and became THE THEORY.

          It is now the Word of God (given) and the rest is history.
          – Voters takes 3 minutes!!
          – Why?
          – Because it is so.
          – And why is it so?
          – Because God(given) said so.

          And today, the Shrink (they called me fraudulent now I reciprocate) came up with another part of the THEORY dressed up in statistical language. “The Normal behavior of voting stations”

          Check it up at http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/91163/jorge-rodriguez-lanza-la-hipotesis-de-un-fraude-en-las-primarias-de-unidad/

          All this makes me laugh and MHO is that the MUD / Capriles should try to tone it down.

  9. Funny, all of them.
    Alone at night, singing aloud, just in case a ghost appears. They are really scared.
    That’s the way “la cuarta republica” was lost; politicos seeing trees, not seeing the forest. “La quinta” is doomed.

    This 24 hours would give Radio Rochela sketchs material until October

  10. Finally, the new numbers from the MUD for some number crunching’. Ummm… Crunching.

    http://www.globovision.com/news.php?nid=218860

    The race in Municipio Libertador is razor’s edge close.

    The difference between Ismael Garcia and Antonio Ecarri is just of 471 votes. No wonder why Ecarri asking for a recount. In some countries, a difference of less than 1% triggers an automatic recount. For me, open ALL the boxes, IMHO. For Chavismo, this is the evidence of fraud. LOL.

    The funny thing is if Stalin Gonzalez (who ended fourth, well behind) have withdrawn and endorsed Richard Blanco, he would have won by a huge margin of a little more than 18 thousand votes.

  11. A dumb reaction is better than no reaction whatsoever for these guys. By attempting to tarnish the name of the only one of the five power branches the country has, they’re making their eventual victory in October (according to themselves) less credible. A visceral answer indeed.

  12. As recently as last week I talked to a couple of ex-PDVSA friends and they hold the position that the 2004 vote was a fraud: “It’s pretty easy to make a computer change a yes for a no, add a number here, add a number there…”

    I decided not to ask what was the actual evidence they had for believing what they did…

    • Foxtrot,
      Don’t start telling the people at Caracas Chronicles that you — or anyone else for that matter — know more about vote fraud than they do, or you’ll never hear the end of it. These boys and girls just KNOW that Venezuela’s voting system is squeaky clean. Why, Teodoro Petkoff TOLD them so!
      And by all means, don’t bring any statistical evidence to bear on your argument, because as they all know, and they’ll tell you, statistics can be manipulated to prove anything.
      No, best let them continue drinking the Kool Aid, revel in triunfalismo, and argue amongst themselves about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
      Eric

      • Yeah. we’re all crazy here, but we were also the first to report yesterday’s victory. So there’s some value to the shit we write, correct? Or else, why else would you visit?

          • Sad is how the non black swan people never point to a flaw in the black swan people’s mathematical basis, yet conclude the opposite of what the math concludes, with no mathematical basis.

      • That’s not my point Boludo, if you use those statistical documents and make it the cornerstone of your argument then fine. I personally found them interesting, though I have no idea what Quico’s and JC’s position is regarding the work of these folks (re: Bruno Sanso, he was my Statistic’s teacher at the USB, hey Bruni, small world right? :D).

        It’s when you say it was so JUST BECAUSE that I start raising eyebrows…

      • FWIW, here is an updated version of the above link:rr-models, courtesy of Miguel Octavio, which finesses the dead links from the old blogs/salon setup.

        • My pooint is that all those super sophisticated analyses came out months and months after voting happened – but the fraud claims came out seconds after CNE made its announcement!!

          • The claims came out seconds after the rules agreed upon to secure the results were disrespected BEFORE CNE made its announcement. Since the rules had been agreed upon as the *minimum* required to provide non fraud confidence, breaking them allowed for *reasonable* calls for fraud, especially in light of the many obstacles placed along the path of seeking evidence.

            • FWIW, I found the whole RR 2004 exercise completely illegitimate from the very beginning: they made up laws and rules on signature collection. the AN revamped the very CNE they had elected because that CNE had accepted the signatures and only did a random sampling (an event the chavista AN could not allow). They then fabricated laws out of thin air to regulate, postpone, delay and delay again. If the constitution had been respected at ALL the signatures would have been accepted in August 2003 and a recall executed in November-December of the same year.

        • Again, dude, you’re not getting the point. You seem to believe that I’m attacking the rr models/ dismissing them. I’m not. People I know swear by the Fraud argument and they don’t even KNOW about the rr-models. So they come off as zealot wackos and all that does is hurt the opposition POV whenever I try to educate foreign folk on the realities of the Chavez regime.

          Quico is right in saying that the models only came much, much later, but the next day reactions were very much the same as those from the chavista side. In fact I only remember one representative of the opposition that day saying on TV that he all he wanted was a recount and verification, that he wasn’t irresponsably shouting FRAUD FRAUD.

            • Sorry Amieres, that was 8 years ago, I’m terrible with names, only half-good with faces. I’d love to tell you who it was, I only recall that he came on Globo a little bit after Ramos Allup gave his big speech on how it was possible that they had less votes than total signatures collected.

  13. The funniest part (among dozens of funny parts) is that this is another “tratan de tapar el sol con un dedo y usan el meñique en vez del pulgar” moment for the robolution, like pretending that the reigning insecurity is just an invention of the media.

    It was over 3 millions voters. Almost 1 out of every 5 adults in Venezuela voted yesterday. Look around anywhere in Venezuela. You see other 4 people? Then one of you voted, and he’ll probably be bragging about it right now.. We’re not talking about something that happened on the moon or 300 years ago. Chavistas, once again, are trying to convince fishermen that water doesn’t exist.

  14. Francisco, you cannot have it both ways, trying to sound reasonable while being unreasonable. When you claim this is “EXACTLY like 2004″, but state things like “back-of-the-envelope-calculation based” or “backed by back-of-the-envelope maths”, you demonstrate the very mentality that you are criticizing. Call me crazy, but if Diosdado presents statistics as thorough and advanced as Hausmann’s or Rigobon’s, I’ll be listening. Those are not back of the envelope stuff. You say people shouldn’t claim fraud without evidence, well you should then not imply those “maths” are flawed without evidence, either, or you become the very thing that you criticize.

    • I’m talking about the day after the vote. There was ZERO evidence of fraud on August 16th, 2004. That didn’t prevent millions of people from being CONVINCED there had been fraud, on the basis of nothing at all. That’s very much the position we’re in today.

      • As I mentioned above, the security measures in place to guarantee no fraud were circumvented opening a valid door for calls for fraud when the institutions in charge of oversight unilaterally decided to support the official result despite the lack of securities that had been agreed upon as a bare minimum. Nothing unreasonable at all, at the time. Certainly, nothing to for you to refer to as “back of the envelope stuff”, especially when those very institutions became the very obstacles in trying to find evidence.

        • By the way, what do you think would happen if MUD did not allow anyone to look at the conteo papers? Would the chavistas be more or less inclined to believe that there was fraud? Would they be to blame? Would someone in the opposition be considered unreasonable if he started having doubts, too?

      • I’m talking about the day after the vote. There was ZERO evidence of fraud on August 16th, 2004. That didn’t prevent millions of people from being CONVINCED there had been fraud, on the basis of nothing at all. That’s very much the position we’re in today.

        Quico, you are either forgetting or erasing history: I refer to exit polls. The RR was on August 15,2004. The preliminary results were announced on August 16,2004. Allegations of fraud were related to the differences between the preliminary results and some exit polls that had been published before the preliminary results. It may be argued that the exit polls were not valid measures. Certainly one can point to a lot of opinion polls in Venezuela and other countries that for whatever reason have invalid results.

        Seeing the difference between some exit polls and the preliminary results was a very valid reason for some people to suspect at least the possibility of fraud, and to want further investigation.

        You may be correct to consider the exit polls invalid evidence of fraud, given the vagaries of opinion polling, but “ZERO evidence” is a complete distortion of the historical record. Some people thought there was fraud, based on exit polls: they did not invent their suspicions out of thin air.

        At the time of the RR I was working in the US in an office with several Venezuelans. Their pointing out the discrepancies between some exit polls and the preliminary results rekindled my interest in Venezuela, years after I had left Venezuela.

  15. “Because notice that no one is saying “I have this video of viejas in El Cafetal stuffing ballots” or “this Plan República soldier caught a bunch of escuacas adding in hundreds of extra votes at the end of voting,” or any variation on that theme. It’s not that they’re concocting evidence, it’s that they’re acting as though evidence is basically beside the point. The opposition canNOT mobilize three million people, and therefore, it didn’t.”

    I telling you, Quico. Hardcore Chavismo is a religious cult now. The choice they offer to their followers is simple: “You will believe us on every word we say to you. If the world says otherwise, they are wrong because they’re conspiring against our happy process. If you question us, even for one single bit that doesn’t make sense, you’re with the apatridas and the pitiyankis and therefore, you’re expelled. Your life will be miserable now.” More or less like this, but with curse words. Sad but true.

    Look to the so-callled journalists from the state media outlets. Behind their look of “angry leftist college student who hates consumerism but likes to dress with good brand clothes”, you can see the anger they have for Capriles and the opposition and anybody who isn’t like them. There’s nothing we can see or even if reality hits them hard, they won’t change their mind. They’re converted. They’re gone. I found this to be really problematic. If Henrique wins, he’ll have to deal with them. It won’t be easy. These people, who are a considerable minority (maybe a 5%), don’t believe in any kind of reconciliation. maybe not all of them are open to violence, but you don’t need a lot of people to create chaos. This is not a melodramatic paranoic thought of mine. This is a genuine concern that it needs to be adressed eventually.

    • geha,

      “These people, who are a considerable minority (maybe a 5%), don’t believe in any kind of reconciliation.”

      It certainly is bizarre to think that the various assortment of interest groups like terrorists ,International drug traffickers, the mafia, communist ideologues, fascists, and those under the mind clinching spell of a cult are open to reconciliation.This is just the most naive idea I have heard in a very long time.

    • This is the biggest and most immediate problem that will confront the next Administration after Chavez. It is a giant bomb, and Chavez holds the detonation switch. So, much depends on his reaction to the results.

    • I’ve been calling Chávez the Jim Jones from Sabaneta for about 10 years. The fight we’re in now is about not letting the poisonous Kool-Aid down our throats.

  16. 9 years away from Venezuela made me forget about the cadenas. There’s one currently being broadcasted.

    The sheer amount of blatant political propaganda in it pretty sure violates more than one law in Venezuela. Besides showing government events and what not, the people interviewed keep talking about how only with Chávez all this is possible. They also show Chávez saying the very same thing “only under socialism this is possible”, etc. etc. Depressing.

    Capriles was in Alo Ciudadano when the cadena happened.

  17. 2+2=5.
    even if you show them 4 fingers, they will say whatever the big brother says is true.

    I think this is pretty sad. its pretty sad to see this reaction from the government.
    They used to react better to these things.

  18. The mathematical argument is so stupid. On 12-F I was the coordinator of my mayoral candidate’s testigos in a voting center. Let me use for example two of my three mesas (mesa 2 started later because the machine didn’t work):

    Mesa 1 (1038 electors)
    10 AM: 80 voters.
    11 AM: 148.
    12 PM: 219.
    2 PM: 352.
    3 PM: 409.
    4 PM: 453.
    4:40 PM: 477.

    Mesa 3 (1048 electors)
    10 AM: 94 voters.
    11 AM: 168.
    12 PM: 229.
    2 PM: 367.
    3 PM: 440.
    4 PM: 495.
    4:40 PM: 518.

    I don’t have the final numbers of each mesa because I handed over the chorizos, but on almost 9 hours approximately 500 people voted. That means Juantxon calculations are about right, because 55 people voted per hour on my center (he calculated 60). But as you can see, from 4 PM to 4:40 PM few people cast their vote there, while in U.E. Juan XXIII by 5:30 PM there were still people waiting on the lines to vote. I’m sorry, but as 19 years old guy who spent 14 hours on a polling center checking the process, this whole discussion makes me angry!!

  19. mijitos bottom line: 3.040.000 votes por el buche sin contar los votos extranjeros. that’s it… if the chavistas want to act houdinilike and claim whatever: they don’t exist and/or do the ostrich with buried head denial dance to mislead their hipnotized masses… they deserve sauron and his cronies. all the better for us! let them subestimate us again. what did you expect? that they were going to take it well? nooooooooooooo ;)

  20. typo: underestimate. i have a splitting headache but i’m sooo happy that not even the conspiration CNE theory can wipe off the silly smile on my heart.

    • The argument is beside the point, Though. The certainty does not arise from the argument, the argument arises from the certainty.

      • You’re generalizing that postion of some, to others who don’t hold that position. And here again you yourself are doing that which you criticize: you are certain to be right, and your arguments are not responding to the arguments of others, but rather they are arising from your certainty that it’s just like 2004.

  21. So this kind of poorly researched, thoughtless journalism (mediocre writing included) is what our ‘NPR’ is publishing at the moment:

    http://aporrea.org/oposicion/n198816.html

    February 13 offers almost as many lessons for us as the 12th. We underestimated the opposition’s strength, and overestimated the government’s. This is yet another indicator of the regime’s slow, but steady loss of political grip…

    • hah. el chigüire beat you to it! it’s like the AD widows stopped coming here to yell at Quico and turned chavista!

      “Les robaron las primarias a los adecos, y esos no se van a quedar con esa, ya lo verán !!”

      • It’s just so, so out there: the theory here is that PJ steals an election from AD – and nobody from AD complains about it? These are the same groups they’ve spent months telling us are at each other’s throats, one of them steals a vote from the other, and the only people who care are…chavistas?

        Es como dice Laureano Marquez: ahora sí que me perdí.

        • What blows my mind is that there is no possible positive outcome for them. It would literally take Ramos Allup to come out and say he agrees with Diosdado and AD will be running its own candidates in the upcoming elections.
          We can only benefit from them calling foul and not hearing this as the clear signal it it. Like they say, “In Vzla there aren’t 3M burgueses”.

          • They may be preparing the ground to cheat in October, then claim that the opposition’s cries for fraud in October should fall on the same deaf ears on which they’re falling now with their current calls for fraud.

        • I think PJ used a Chinese hacker (remember they are yellow) to infect the Simón Bolívar sattellite with a troyan, and control all CANTV communications.

          • No, hombre.

            Every Chavista knows the Chinese are socialist, very socialist, so they would never let revolutionaries down. So this is obviously Mossad and what happened was that they used a variation of Stuxnet that is sleeping in the voting machines and strikes only when Capriles wants.

            • By the way, did you read this article, published in a very prestigious statistical journal?: “From the Black Swan to the Guarandol Bird: evidence of fraud switch in Venezuela”

            • “From the Black Swan to the Guarandol Bird: evidence of fraud switch in Venezuela”

              No. Is it from MIT press?

              I read their paper on randomness and CNE data entitled “Martingale Models and the Guacharaca Factor”, fascinating stuff.

  22. I think the analogy with the recall referendum is wrong. This is more like the “Megafraude”, when Chavez came up with the absolute bullshit that the signatures collected for the recall request were fraudulent. It is them who invented this sort of conspiracy theories. And they used that bullshit to delay the referendum until the had managed to scare the shit of everyone and pull things in their favour. This is not necessarily a hysteric reaction, but maybe the start of something…

  23. I think the hypothesis is correct: el presidente was temporarily incapacitated in some kind of fugue state, chewing on the bones of bolivar and reciting poetry or something, and the propaganda machine could no longer wait for instructions and started this circular firing squad.

  24. Am I the only one who is alarmed by the fact that a fucking text message chain-mai-thing is now the centre of a bonifide news phenomenon?

    Forget the three minutes thing, the chavistas implying CNE commited fraud, forget the claims of fraud themselves: Some guy read out a fucking spam message to Capriles and now millions of people are talking about it.

    What the perpendicular fuck is wrong with our country?

    By the way, if you don’t send this message to at least 10 politicians and 25 journalists, La Sayona is going to pull your intestines out of your other intestines.

  25. This is great stuff, now can’t help but remember fondly what great fun it was to see the opposition in this pickle years ago! Agree completely with Quico.

  26. Well,

    Quico’s motto is ” Okay, look! The Chavistas fouled up, but let me point out that the opposition also did just as bad.

    I guess that’s his sense of moral equivalency.

    Have I seen this reasoning before in previous posts ? ;)

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