Turnout: 11% of REP at 2:30 – UPDATED

…it’s absolutely true cuz I read it in Caracas Chronicles.

UPDATE: If this turns out to be right, it’s a big number, and probably good news for HCR. But it’s looking like the Quick Counts aren’t going to be all that quick. Again, no coma cuento: there are no nationwide Exit Polls.

SECOND UPDATE: We’ll definitely get to more than 2 million votes.

THIRD UPDATE: The number we’re now trying to hit is 2.5 million. Far exceeds expectations.

FOURTH UPDATE: People in Maracaibo are either cautiously optimistic, or deluded. Take your pick.

FIFTH UPDATE: No hard data yet. Information is barely trickling in.

SIXTH UPDATE: Too many voting booths still open, so my sources are tight-lipped.

54 thoughts on “Turnout: 11% of REP at 2:30 – UPDATED

  1. I heard others say that anything over 1.5 million voters was great and if it hits 2 million its going to scare the pants off of Hugo.


  2. Well, there’s one extra hour to go. 15% of REP is possible. #EstebanEstaTriste


    P.S. There are already some fake exit polls around. Can’t trust them.


  3. Wow!! a 15%-20% REP seems possible

    This is just awesome :) let’s see how things work out and hope for the best for 7-O.

    BTW, I know this wont be “sciency” nor anything like it, but, how do you think the results wold be (candidate — %)

    I really hope HCR wins by over 45 and MCM breaks the 15% barrier :p


  4. At one polling station in El Valle (Caracas) there were still roughly 100 people in line to vote just before 4pm.


  5. “I’m hearing 12% of REP in Bolívar State.”

    It is quite possible. I have relatives in Vista al Sol (San Felix, Edo. Bolivar and 100% red) and they went out to vote. Weird.


  6. Moreover, Bolivar State has been considered one of Chavez’s stronghold in what is considered “monte y culebra” part of Venezuela. If that 12% is true, I would dare to say that Chavez is in for a batlle Oct 7th.


  7. I expect your commentary tomorrow, Diaz Rangel:
    “Por otra parte el periodista Eleazar Díaz Rangel, director del diario Últimas Noticias, destacó en su columna dominical Los Domingos de Díaz Rangel, la incertidumbre e interrogante que existen sobre la participación de los venezolanos en las elecciones primarias de la oposición a pocos días del proceso y consideró que la afluencia de votantes será menor. En este sentido estima una alta probabilidad de que la afluencia a las mesas de votación no sea masiva, “podrían estar en torno al millón de electores. Un 5% del Registro Electoral”, Indicó que la impresión generalizada es que, detrás o debajo de esa imagen de unidad, existen conflictos de todo tipo.


      • I actually witnessed that myself twice in national elections. Bus loads of Soldiers dropping at 4:30 PM pretending to vote using blank registration books because they were “on duty”. They seemed to have very clear instructions on how to vote. Presidente del Centro last time denied them entry to the voting center aided by fellow citizens while plan Republica stood by watching.


  8. Done with my civic duties. Now with my blogging duties. If you want to know what happened in Chile, check my twitter, @juannagel.


  9. Now on Globo, A. Briquet (HCR’s campaign manager) is speaking. Sounds confident.

    New logo for the HCR campaign. Has a particular element seen earlier in a previous election.


      • I want to see the final product, but copying the adversary is not always a good idea.

        Also, the use of the national flag (direct or indirect) for electoral use is banned by law.

        That won’t stop Esteban though. What the Commander President wants, Tibi allows.


  10. “The number we’re now trying to hit is 2.5 million. Far exceeds expectations.”

    There are still lineups in a lot of centers. This could take a while. The sky’s the limit.


    • 25ish% in the 2006 elections didn’t vote. If you extrapolate that to this REP and the total tally is indeed 2,500,000, about 18% of registered voters (who usually vote) participated in the primaries. That’s HUGE.

      Just for perspective Rosales got 26.8% of the vote in those elections (per esdata)


  11. “People in Maracaibo are either cautiously optimistic, or deluded. Take your pick.”

    Could this be too close to call? Or there’s a landslide on the way?

    My bet is there will not be results until 9:30 or 10 p.m. at least. #PrimaryNailBaiter


  12. What are you talking about in maracaibo? :p

    I think it’s not crazy to think that PP will beat capriles but it wont be by more thatn 15 points


  13. The primaries always looked different from the other side of the Rafael Urdaneta bridge. From Maracaibo’s viewpoint, it was almost impossible to think that PP wouldn’t make it…

    Anyway, I’m biting my nails here…. It’s Monday morning already!!!! ;)


  14. “Too many voting booths still open, so my sources are tight-lipped.”

    Too close to call. I’m feeling it. This game is going to extra-time.

    OT: Dudamel won a Grammy. A real one.


  15. A comment on vote secrecy for the primary: for closet anti-chavistas secrecy was not possible. Just showing up at a voting center would blow your cover (regardless of the secrecy of candidate choice).
    I haven’t seen comments on this, but it reinforces the importance of today’s turnout.


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