Out: Exit Polls. In: Quick Counts.

Exit Poll = BS

As primary voting winds down towards late afternoon today, I bet you’ll start hearing a lot of rumors about this exit poll and that exit poll. Disregard them. There are no Nationwide Exit Polls that I know of this time around. A few local candidates are doing them, yes, but as far as I’ve been able to ascertain there is nothing planned for the presidential primary.

Why? Because Exit Polls have a terrible track record in Venezuela (and elsewhere). Because they’re expensive and siphon off way too much manpower that the campaigns would prefer to devote to their mobilization efforts. Because getting enough staff trained to a high enough level to ensure an unbiased sample is very hard. Because nobody’s really confident that the methodological challenges can be addressed successfully. And because this happened.

Instead, what we’ll get are “Quick Counts” aplenty. First, a representative sample of voting centers is selected. Then, as soon as voting is done in one of the center’s tables and the machine has printed out a result, an on-site volunteer phones it in to Caracas. (You don’t even have to wait for the whole voting center to finish voting; you can phone in results for the first table that closes, which is much faster.) Then you tabulate those results and what you get is seldom more than 1.5% away from the nationwide outcome.

Quick counts are nearly as fast as exit polls, way cheaper, and far, far more accurate. So, today, look for the quick counts, ignore the bullshit.

23 thoughts on “Out: Exit Polls. In: Quick Counts.

  1. Completely agree. I have worked for three elections in the “quick counts” ndlland the accuracy is awesome.

  2. Agreed. I coordinate exit polls myself in the enmienda and it was an epic fail. Chavismo’s exit polls were totally different than ours. The voter outsmarted us!

  3. Morning! Here we are. The MUD did their part, so did the candidates. Now it’s our turn.

    Good to know this about exit polls. Now I won’t fall if someone tweets at 5 p.m. saying who have won. Quick counts are more efficient.

    To the Primary Technical Commission: Please, don’t make us wait until 3 a.m again.

  4. My beef with that is that just as in my former voting center in Caracas, Barcelona polls have one “mesa” (in this case mesa #2) which is FULL of people, whereas “mesas” 2 and 3 have NO voters, which is odd, specially when ou consider that in previous major elections the audit of the “mesas” is not full, its just some of the mesas chosen randomly, which is well, weird.

    In any case Barcelona was FULL of people, amazing turnout, there was some random guy doing an exit poll (my wife snuck a peak without him noticing), let´s just say JC and Juan have a reason to smile in this small corner of the voting world, most people would say pretty loudly who they voted for… After all, they´re already out of “harms way”…

  5. Talking about BS:
    Look at the pathetic lies that Ramos Allup is spreading:

    Cierra la primera mesa en Australia:Pablo Perez 47.5. Henrique Capriles 31.6. Diego Arria 3.5. Maria Corina 1.6 Pablo Medina 0 Votos.
    hace 11 horas vía Twitter for BlackBerry®

    This is just one of the reasons why we hate dinosaurs: Arrogant enough to lie to us in a blatant way. Dumb enough to not realize that we are going to catch them lying.

        • i disagree, adecos with dinosaur skin like ramos allup don’t make dumb mistakes. we bashed him good in twitter! from what i could read it backfired on him!! and of course on PP. very very very dumb mistake…when in sidney it was barely 11.30 am.

          • Was it or was it not a dumb mistake?

            It’s like with Chavez: either he’s some sort of Machiavellian evil genius or some bumbling incompetent. A few months ago much of the blogosphere and twitter said that the primarias date and all that was an AD ploy, and mentioned that HRA was pulling the strings… Come on, stop reading so much Dan Brown.

      • I have not seen a correction, apology or anything like that on his timeline. Time to man up and accept the error. However, in case it was an error, and not an intentional lie, how the fuck can he be so gullible, lacking of critical thinking and ignorant? It’s not hard to pull google and find out about the time zone in Australia. Plus, if his party machine is so mighty that PP won there, heck, he should have people on the ground feeding real time results to him.

        Either he is a liar or an easy to deceive simpleton. If this is the Machiavelli of our opposition, no wonder why we are FUBAR

    • VV and Televen are making a decent coverage so far. The VV team in maracaibo was robbed of the cameras, equipement and their car. #ElAissamiFAIL. Globo is doing the most complete coverage obviously.

      • Thanks! I have the feeling that we will outperform all past experiences in primaries in Venezuela. There has never been such coverage for a primary event before.

  6. I just got a report from Las Adjuntas on the Colegio Claudio Feliciano, the center that gave more votes to chavismo on the recall referendum. The center is having a more that decent turn out, it took my family 45 minutes in line to vote. That’s awesome if we consider that’s a super chavista area. I don’t care so much who wins but that we get enough people voting. Great day for democracy in Venezuela.

  7. just came back from voting. colegio la concordia in bello monte, arrived at 8.45am voted at 11:00am. 2.15 hours wait… many many seniors. big queue… lots of friends who are voting “after mass”, “after breakfast” after xxxx. lazy sunday…

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