62-16? Only in Phonetrackingpollandia

Posted on February 11, 2012 by

Zapatófonanalisis Says

So The Economist has the race at 62% to Capriles, 16% to Perez, with spare change going to the others. Quite so, but only in an alternate Venezuela where everyone lives in a big city and has a phone line at home.

It’s crazy to read tracking polls like this one for absolute numbers, but probably sensible enough to read it for trends.

Capriles is not going to win by a 4-to-1 margin…but his lead probably is growing, rather than shrinking.

About Francisco Toro

writing about the compounding state of insanity that is Venezuela under Chávez since 1999.
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24 Responses to 62-16? Only in Phonetrackingpollandia

  1. geha714 says:
    February 11, 2012 at 11:16 am

    Not buying it. There’s no precent for an event like this here. Venezuela has become an impossible place to do polls. In the end, this ain’t over until is over. JUST GO AND VOTE!

    Reply
  2. venegringa says:
    February 11, 2012 at 11:21 am

    “his lead probably is growing, rather than shrinking.” but you also have been stressing the importance of machineries, so… I guess tomorrow we’ll see which effect is stronger in a Venezuelan open primary.

    Also, that article of The Economist says that Capriles is center-right.
    I think they are pretty desubicados and did not do a very good job with the article at all.

    Reply
    • geha714 says:
      February 11, 2012 at 11:24 am

      Well, PJ is still center-right, but the current HCR coalition is more into the center.

      Still, lazy reporting. The coverage about Venezuela in foreign media has been lazy.

      Reply
      • juan says:
        February 11, 2012 at 6:00 pm

        “The coverage about Venezuela in foreign media has been lazy.”

        Yes, a s a rule. Which makes you think about the coverage of other countries and sensitive areas. When they write about us, I use it as a gauge to measure the quality of the reporting. Not many pass the test, so, what does this make of The Economist, for example?

        Reply
        • geha714 says:
          February 11, 2012 at 6:15 pm

          Well, The Economist has done better than most. They have made some interesting posts lately.

          But cases like BBC, the main US TV networks, the main press agencies, etc. have dropped the ball. And there’s when the agendas of those media interfere, like what happened to the correspondent of the Publico newspaper in Spain.

          Reply
    • carl says:
      February 11, 2012 at 4:35 pm

      HCR is and always has been center-right. Don’t confuse rhetoric with policy.

      Reply
      • Francisco Toro says:
        February 11, 2012 at 5:03 pm

        A totally meaningless phrase.

        UNT-PJ don’t fall at contrasting points on a left-right axis, they fall at contrasting point along a program-clientelism axis. The difference is that PJ has political ideas, UNT’s only ideology is patronage.

        Reply
        • geha714 says:
          February 11, 2012 at 5:07 pm

          “PJ has political ideas, UNT’s only ideology is patronage.” NAILED IT.

          UNT is honestly just AD 2.0. Mismo musiu con otro nombre.

          Reply
        • venegringa says:
          February 11, 2012 at 6:09 pm

          Agree. But I still don’t think that you can reduce the political postures and ideology of Pablo Perez and HCR based on their parties, especially when we know that opposition parties are generally apprehensive of calling themselves any labels but social democrat. And because there is this apprehension for ideological labels, it really surprised me when Capriles came to Chicago in April 2010 to receive a prize by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs and kept stressing that he was center-left. That was way before he became a candidate. Obviously, he can say anything he wants and be something else, he is a politician.
          But center-right? Nope. I think Capriles (and Ocariz) have a wider view of what government can and should do than that of their “party line”. Probably actually being in power has changed their views….

          Reply
        • IRPO says:
          February 12, 2012 at 12:16 am

          My two cents : To me, PJ is a renovated COPEI younger, more competent and managerial, but nonetheless right of center. UNT is more populist, social democratic, a renovated AD. Politics always has clientelism, specially in 3rd world nations, and that includes the US and only excludes the Nordics. PJ suddenly new political ideas include name dropping Lula whenever possible, a clear disconnect to me, but I guess necessary to attract the left side that’s always been a majority in Venezuela. Its important to understand that Venezuela since Betancourt has been social democratic, left of center, populist etc, and that ideology is still there, incarnated in UNT – I wouldn’t call that patronage.

          Reply
  3. geha714 says:
    February 11, 2012 at 11:36 am

    OT but unbelievable:

    Chavismo has changed the Feb 12th. celebration into a concert. The list of people to play (via ND):

    Chino y Nacho, Oscarsito, Los Cadillac, Caramelos de Cianuro, Aguamala, Lasso.

    #MassiveFACEPALM. That’s how you honor J.F. Ribas. Reggaeton por la patria. #BiggestEpicFAIL

    When Chavismo angers Paul Gillman, you know things are not good.

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/02/11/paul-gillman-indignado-con-el-evento-del-psuv/

    Meanwhile the poor people of Maturin won’t have water for the next 3 months. GO AND VOTE!

    Reply
  5. FoxtrotCharlie says:
    February 12, 2012 at 9:11 pm

    Irony…

    Reply

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