Margin of Error: 5.4%
So here’s how Datanalisis had the race late last year, (Hat tip to the wonderfully leaky Ricardo Sucre.)
Now, if you’re like me, the bit you’re fixating on is the sample size – by the time Datanalisis is done filtering out people who don’t know when the primaries are and aren’t sure whether they’ll vote in them, their sample size has dwindled pretty dramatically, which drives their margin of error for 95% confidence way up over 5%.
Even so, it can’t be good news for María Corina Machado that basically one single person out of Datanalisis’s sample wants to vote for her.
And, of course, HCR’s lead remains sizable.
Datanalisis struggles to put a number to the likely turnout, giving estimates ranging from 1.8 million to 3.5 million voters – which is a pretty big spread, but then again, the process really is unprecedented, so it’s hard to fault them for that. And they find that, late last year, just under half the people polled knew the primaries would be held in February, and just under a third knew the exact date (February 12th.)
Update: On Sunday, Primero Justicia tweeted
Consultores 21: Capriles: 51%, PP: 30%, LL 11%, MCM 3%
No field dates, no slides, no N=, no nothin’, though…
Although I´m 100% sure HCR will win the primaries, there is no way I would base my assumption on Datanalisis…
I can still remember Luis Vicente Leon at one point saying the opo would only get 43 Diputados… Their track record has been so-so lately…
True dat. This is the first primary election of this kind, so there’s no precedent to analize or compare. Datanalisis leaves me cold.
It’s too early to tell, but my bet is around 2 million (worst scenario) and 2.5 million voters (best scenario). More than 3 million is just massive success.
From the official PJ twitter account> RT @Pr1meroJusticia: #Encuesta Consultores 21: @HCapriles: 51%, PP: 30%, LL 11%, MCM 3%. That was today, any insights on this one?
What about Dino Arria?
Still no one talks, analises with seriousness and confront the elepahnt in the room: how many people will not vote on the primaries because of Lista Tascon phantom.