The Oppo Field Now

So Pablo Pérez’s AD endorsement prompted us to revise our Oppo Field Guide once again.

Want the short version? The Opposition Primary is quickly settling into a three-horse race between Henrique Capriles Radonski (HCR), Pablo Pérez (PP) and Leopoldo López (LL), with the others struggling to establish their relevance and several likely to drop out soon.

(Update: Dicho y hecho. Hours after this post was written Eduardo Fernández dropped out. Fun trivia: COPEI – or, at least, the neo-copeyano/post-copeyano clan – has gone from having three candidates in the oppo primary to none at all in less than a month.)

Though HCR still seems to be well ahead, look for the race to tighten as LL reaps the benefits of the tons of free media he’s been getting and PP soaks up floating adeco support.

13 thoughts on “The Oppo Field Now

  1. I wished MCM was part of the front group but she does not seem to pick up traction. She might catch a break if she does well in a televised debate.

    Now that the price of a place in the primaries has been established, I wonder if the bottom tier will rethink al momento de bajarse de la mula.

    Btw, from the pics and the videos the top three are getting good street response which is really the real polling in Venezuela. Check this pic out: http://twitpic.com/77w462

  2. Triangulation is the name given to the act of a political candidate presenting his or her ideology as being “above” and “between” the “left” and “right” sides… Wikipedia
    Actually, this is Capriles strategy and he is miscatergorized-as far left, for example.
    Something to think about, this and other examples -show that the opposition (some of the candidates)
    are using “modern” techniques in political races.
    However, Chavez -uses retro, barbaric techniques- -example-plain as day buying votes.

  3. So Eduardo Fernández just stepped out (as almost everyone was expecting), my guess is there will only be 4 candidates left by February: HCR, LL, PP and MCM (ugh).

    I’m glad the opposition leaders have started realizing who really has possibilities to win, hopefully they’ll also realize who’s more valuable in the position they are currently in (I’m looking at you MCM). I’m a little sad because of what happened to AL thought, he seemed like a much smarter candidate than PP.

    • What about trying to steal votes from MCM? Seems tempting for him to introduce a female figure in his campaign to carve on the voters MCM claims to be her base. Something HCR cannot do, while PP’ wife will not come as easy with the cameras as ‘Lili’ does. I thought it was clever for her to be more public when I first saw it. Time shall say.

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