Caracas Chronicles Exclusive: Jesse Chacón Forecasts Opposition Will Win 112 Seats
OK, he didn’t say that explicitly: You have to read between the lines a bit.
Let’s take it from the start: Jesse Chacón, the former Chavista minister and well-known nepotist crony, has landed a job at the helm of a firm that has carved out quite a reputation for itself in the world of polling. And GIS XXI’s polls have a track record of being deliriously biased toward the government.
How deliriously? Lets see…
Back in 2008, GIS XXI said Aristóbulo Istúriz would beat Antonio Ledezma for Caracas Metropolitan Mayor by 13 points. In fact, Ledezma won by eight points.
‘mafraid you were off by 21 on that one, guys.
That same year, GIS XXI had Jorge Rodríguez beating Stalin González for Central Caracas mayor by 31 percentage points. In fact, Rodríguez won by 12 points. Again off by 21 points!
In Miranda, GIS XXI had Diosdado Cabello beating Henrique Capriles in Miranda by 10.7 percentage points. In fact, Capriles beat Cabello by 7 points. Off by just 18 this time (getting warmer!)
And in Sucre Municipality, GIS XXI thought that Jesse Chacón (yup, the same guy) would beat Carlos Ocaríz in Sucre by 11.5 percentage points. In fact, Ocaríz won by 11.7 points. Off by 23…ouchie!
In fact, you have to give GIS XXI a bit of credit. At least they are consistent! Their polls overestimate the government’s margin by about 20 points…consistently!
Actually, we’re snarky enough to run his track record through a bit of a regression to see what it gives. Considering Jesse is now forecasting the government is going to win by about 6 points, history suggests that, after applying the GIS XXI Reality Adjustment Factor, the opposition’s going to win by about 16! In other words, they are forecasting 58-42 for the opposition.
And plug a 58% oppo vote share into our Forecasting Tool and the MUD gets…112 seats! That would leave PSUV with 53 seats.
Hurrah, two thirds majority!!
Just in case it’s not 100% clear to everyone – no, we don’t really think MUD is going to get 112 seats on 26S. We’re trying to make a point. Garbage In, Garbage Out. GIS XXI is too ridiculous an outfit to even begin to take seriously.
(Hat tip: VVperiodistas)
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