Monthly Archives: September 2010

(A joint publication by Caracas Chronicles, Prodavinci, and Análisis Venezuela.) Por Francisco Monaldi, Profesor del IESA y la UCAB Como estaba previsto, las elecciones legislativas de 2010 resultaron en una sobrerrepresentación importante del oficialismo en la Asamblea Nacional: 49% de … Continue reading →

Last Sunday’s election left us with a multitude of interesting story lines. One of the more intriguing ones is the future role the Chavista-splinter party Patria Para Todos, the PPT. The PPT broke with Hugo Chávez a while ago over … Continue reading →

With all circuits adjudicated – not counting the zaperoco in Carabobo 5 – it’s PSUV 98, MUD 65, PPT 2: http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.geoitconsult.com%2Fdemo%2F2010elections.kml&ie=UTF8&source=embed&ll=7.885147,-67.412109&spn=10.866443,13.183594&z=5&output=embed View Larger Map

The real fraud in Sunday’s legislative election came not through something blatant like ballot stuffing, but rather through an arcane change to a little-understood corner of the election law that robbed the opposition of some 10 seats in the National … Continue reading →

Quico writes about the elections on The New Republic’s website. CBS News picked it up. For a while yesterday, the article was the top hit on Google News. Not bad for a “pitonizo” (sic) and a “charlatan,” right Luis Vicente? (Hat … Continue reading →

(Apologies to our English-language readers for this rare post in Spanish) Querida Socorro, Con curiosidad leímos tus declaraciones del día de hoy, en las que dices, con la precisión de un reloj suizo, que las circunscripciones electorales fueron diseñadas por … Continue reading →

Google Maps don’t display on wordpress. To see the 2010 Map, Click Here Once you’re in, click on any given circuit to see detailed results. And here, just for contrast, are the 2007, 2008 and 2009 maps again: 2007 Constitutional … Continue reading →

Yesterday, Congressman-elect and Primero Justicia President Julio Borges made a rather startling announcement. In a morning TV show, Borges a) said that he would not be a candidate for President in 2012, and b) endorsed Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski. Never … Continue reading →

So, how did the Legislative Election Forecasting Tool perform? In a word, well. In two words, extremely well. Long story short, the Tool estimated we would get 66 seats. When all is said and done, we’re going to get 64 … Continue reading →

My column for the What’s Next Venezuela? Blog: Venezuelan politics doesn’t make much sense at the best of times, and last night was not the best of times. An electoral system mandated by the Constitution to establish Proportional Representation in … Continue reading →

My tally from CNE’s first set of official results has the government winning 5,400,132 to the MUD’s 5,311,552 in the list vote. Ignore all others, and in the two-way match-up between PSUV and MUD, the government had 50.41% of the … Continue reading →

At just about midnight last night (a.k.a., “the best part”) the crazy traffic spike we were getting set a bunch of shared-server protection scripts running, taking Caracas Chronicles out of commission. We’re still working on the problem, but it may … Continue reading →

We still don’t have a precise seat breakdown, but we do know this: the opposition got more votes than the government today. We’re hearing 52% from multiple sources.

OK, people, let’s get to work. Given the lack of official numbers, and the total spin war going on (we won 45 deputies! no, we won 185!), we need to use our collective resources. Here are a few circuits I … Continue reading →

On the basis of early results from various voting centers, we feel confident in projecting: the Chávez government will not have a 2/3 majority in the new National Assembly. The Venezuelan Constitution says that certain legislative acts, such as Organic … Continue reading →