Cuando 2+2 no son 4: Cómo con menos votos el oficialismo obtuvo 31 diputados más

(A joint publication by Caracas Chronicles, Prodavinci, and Análisis Venezuela.) Por Francisco Monaldi, Profesor del IESA y la UCAB Como estaba previsto, las elecciones legislativas de 2010 resultaron en una sobrerrepresentación importante del oficialismo en la Asamblea Nacional: 49% de los votos obtenidos por el oficialismo a nivel nacional se tradujeron en cerca de 60%…

“Disappear, like all traitors”

Last Sunday’s election left us with a multitude of interesting story lines. One of the more intriguing ones is the future role the Chavista-splinter party Patria Para Todos, the PPT. The PPT broke with Hugo Chávez a while ago over its refusal to disband and join the ruling PSUV party. Down on their luck and…

The Fraud is in the List Rule

The real fraud in Sunday’s legislative election came not through something blatant like ballot stuffing, but rather through an arcane change to a little-understood corner of the election law that robbed the opposition of some 10 seats in the National Assembly. In state after state, this seemingly harmless change in the Ley Organica de Procesos Electorales’s method…

Quico on TNR, CBS News

Quico writes about the elections on The New Republic’s website. CBS News picked it up. For a while yesterday, the article was the top hit on Google News. Not bad for a “pitonizo” (sic) and a “charlatan,” right Luis Vicente? (Hat tip: Alek)

Carta Abierta a Socorro Hernández

(Apologies to our English-language readers for this rare post in Spanish) Querida Socorro, Con curiosidad leímos tus declaraciones del día de hoy, en las que dices, con la precisión de un reloj suizo, que las circunscripciones electorales fueron diseñadas por un “método” basado en la “ley.” ¿Cuál es ese “método” Socorro? Los únicos estados donde…

The Map

Google Maps don’t display on wordpress. To see the 2010 Map, Click Here Once you’re in, click on any given circuit to see detailed results. And here, just for contrast, are the 2007, 2008 and 2009 maps again: 2007 Constitutional Reform Referendum (Block A): View 2007 Map 2008 Gubernatorial Elections: View 2008 Map 2009 Constitutional…

PSUV’s Publicly Funded Campaign

Yesterday, Congressman-elect and Primero Justicia President Julio Borges made a rather startling announcement. In a morning TV show, Borges a) said that he would not be a candidate for President in 2012, and b) endorsed Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski. Never mind that Capriles has yet to say he wants the job. Forget for a second…

Victory Lap

So, how did the Legislative Election Forecasting Tool perform? In a word, well. In two words, extremely well. Long story short, the Tool estimated we would get 66 seats. When all is said and done, we’re going to get 64 or 65 – possibly even 66. First, the input. PSUV got 5,399,390 list votes yesterday,…

The 48% Landslide

My column for the What’s Next Venezuela? Blog: Venezuelan politics doesn’t make much sense at the best of times, and last night was not the best of times. An electoral system mandated by the Constitution to establish Proportional Representation in legislative election has given Chávez’s ruling United Socialist Party of Venzuela (PSUV) some 95 seats…

Calling All Units

OK, people, let’s get to work. Given the lack of official numbers, and the total spin war going on (we won 45 deputies! no, we won 185!), we need to use our collective resources. Here are a few circuits I would like to have hard, cold evidence from. I’m talking actual numbers from actual voting…