One more…

***CORRECTED VERSION*** Quico says: Did I say Consultores 21 was the last poll of the season? I lied. Hinterlaces has just put out one last poll. This one is based on 1,642 telephone interviews in cities done between November 26th and 29th (i.e., yesterday). Specifically, they polled the largest municipality in each of the 15…

One more…

***CORRECTED VERSION*** Quico says: Did I say Consultores 21 was the last poll of the season? I lied. Hinterlaces has just put out one last poll. This one is based on 1,642 telephone interviews in cities done between November 26th and 29th (i.e., yesterday). Specifically, they polled the largest municipality in each of the 15…

Turnout as NiNi psychodrama

Quico says: First, the bare fact, which is now verging on cliché: Sunday’s referendum will hinge on turnout. Both the detailed polls that have come out recently bear that out. My sense is that C21 is closer to the mark than Datanalisis here, simply because they make more of an effort to poll the “hidden…

Turnout as NiNi psychodrama

Quico says: First, the bare fact, which is now verging on cliché: Sunday’s referendum will hinge on turnout. Both the detailed polls that have come out recently bear that out. My sense is that C21 is closer to the mark than Datanalisis here, simply because they make more of an effort to poll the “hidden…

The prodigal poll

Quico says: The final poll of the season is out, and it’s a doosy. Consultores 21 polled 2000 voters, nationwide, in their homes, between Nov. 17 and Nov. 25th. The headline figures? It’s looking good, but, again, it will come down to turnout: What’s distinctive about this poll is not just the big sample, it’s…

The prodigal poll

Quico says: The final poll of the season is out, and it’s a doosy. Consultores 21 polled 2000 voters, nationwide, in their homes, between Nov. 17 and Nov. 25th. The headline figures? It’s looking good, but, again, it will come down to turnout: What’s distinctive about this poll is not just the big sample, it’s…

This again…

Quico says: Well, despite my best intentions, the “fraud or no fraud” debate seems to have burst through with renewed vigor on the comments section. I was hoping to avoid it, but now it’s out there, I guess it’s best to meet it head on. My feeling is that we don’t take a skeptical enough…

This again…

Quico says: Well, despite my best intentions, the “fraud or no fraud” debate seems to have burst through with renewed vigor on the comments section. I was hoping to avoid it, but now it’s out there, I guess it’s best to meet it head on. My feeling is that we don’t take a skeptical enough…

Walk on through to the other side

Katy says: After a fourteen hour debate (!!), the radical opposition umbrella group Comando Nacional de la Resistencia has just abandoned its militant abstentionism. In a whiplash-inducing change of mind, they are now calling for people to go out and vote No on Sunday. There have been no reported sightings of the last vestiges of…

Fosforito chronicles

Lucia says: Reporters Without Borders give their take on Venezuela’s deepening media crisis. They review review Iris Varela’s meltdown, the dangers posed by the reforms, the uncertain fate of RCTV, and an academic study of media coverage of the referendum debate. Warning: reading this may make you more likely to buy into Quico’s views on…

Datanalisis Details

Quico says: It’s not surprising that the Datanalisis poll from Nov 14-20th is getting the most play in the international media. With a big sample (N=1854, margin of error=2.3%), based on in-person interviews, and reaching beyond the major cities, it’s certainly the soundest of the recent polls, methodologically speaking. And it makes for some grim…