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The Big Toys in the Water

The U.S. is pouring a Caribbean cocktail of fear, paranoia and excitement for Venezuelan actors. Some analysts expect a sort of drug interdiction next.

From our Political Risk Report:

The U.S. is deploying its terrifyingly superior military force to possibly intercept sensitive cargo or personnel from Venezuela in the Caribbean, and to intimidate the men who, according to the Trump administration, are responsible of leading terrorist and drug trafficking organizations that threaten the security of the American people.

Intimidate how?

Big guns, big ships and the ghost of extraction.

Credible threat or not, chavista officials are uneasy and many in the Venezuelan public are overexcited.

Opposition leaders are optimistic that the U.S. naval deployment can generate significant cracks and defections among Venezuelan civilian and military officials.

Our advice: Manage your expectations and don’t ever fall for promises of Maduro’s imminent collapse.

María Corina on Fox News last week:

“This has nothing to do with regime change because regime change was mandated on July 28, 2024, (…) and the goal is to dismantle a criminal terrorist organization.”

“We are ready to take power, the legitimate government elected.”

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